Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

The perfect recipe for a Trump meltdown

President Trump has invited Russian president Vladimir Putin to the White House. This news is rocking Washington, but it shouldn’t really come as a surprise, at least no more than Trump’s willingness to meet with the portly pariah of Pyongyang. I have long suspected that Trump would like nothing more than to hold a state dinner for Putin. Trump’s move has temporarily managed to displace his budding tariff war with China from the headlines, but it is of a piece with his embrace of what might be called his inner Trump. Recall that at the July 2017 Republican Convention in Cleveland, Trump declared that “I alone can fix it.” Now he is giving it a go. But what, exactly, is he fixing? When it comes to trade, Trump is manufacturing an artificial crisis.

Are you a winner or a loser in Trump’s trade war?

China’s imposition today of tariffs on 128 imports from the US was inevitable – and is no doubt exactly the reaction that Donald Trump wants, giving him the excuse to announce yet more tariffs in addition to those on steel and aluminium imports which he has already imposed.  After all he did say, even before China announced any form of retaliation:  “trade wars are good.  It should easy for the US to win one”.  A trade war is what he wanted, and what he has got. But does he have any more of a strategy for his trade war than George W Bush had a plan for winning the peace in Iraq? There is an argument for saying that China will come off worse – on the basis that it exports far more to the US than travels in the other direction.

A trade war with China sounds terrifying – but the US is doing the right thing

Nobody likes the sound of trade war, and rightly so. China’s new retaliatory tariffs against US products feel like the beginning of something bad: an escalating tit-for-tat trade conflict between the world’s richest countries which could choke the global economy. But there are good reasons to think that, far from being another silly move by a hothead president, Trump’s right about trade with China and that, as he has with North Korea, he is grasping a dangerous nettle that other presidents dared not touch. It may be scary, but it needs to be done. And it’s not just necessary for America, but perhaps the rest of the world as well. China is deeply protectionist, and is rapidly becoming the most powerful country on earth.

For conservative Catholics, Pope Francis’s hell remarks commit a double heresy

Hell is a hell of a problem. Eternal punishment of the damned is a basic dogma of the Catholic Church and most other forms of Christianity. But the Bible has surprisingly little to say about it, and philosophers have struggled for millennia to give a rigorous account of what hell would really mean. Without reason or revelation giving a clear picture, hell has been left to the popular imagination to fill in with scenes of devils either scary or absurd poking people with their pitchforks.

Does President Trump believe in the resurrection?  

This year, Good Friday and Passover fall on the same day, or night, really, because Passover starts at sundown on Good Friday. So it’s going to be a busy weekend for America’s favourite interfaith household. Yes, the one at the White House. Give credit where it’s due. The Trumps are an all-American household: a blended, interfaith family, just living the Judaeo-Christian ethic.Donald Trump was raised Presbyterian. Melania, who is rumored to have been secretly baptized when Slovenia was under communism, is the first Catholic first lady since Jackie Kennedy. Don, Jr. and Eric have stayed Presbyterian, but will young Barron follow Melania? Meanwhile, Don Jr.

If Trump is Bertie Wooster, who is Jeeves?

California, once a citadel of conservatism, now a bastion of liberal progressivism, continues to harbour a few intellectual redoubts on the right. Up north you can find the Hoover Institution, which is located on the Stanford University campus. And down south, near Los Angeles, there is the Claremont Institute, another scholarly outfit which also happens to view President Trump with general approbation. On Thursday I met one of Claremont’s leading lights, Charles R. Kesler, for lunch at an Italian establishment near Beverly Hills. Kesler was kind enough to supply me with a copy of the new issue of the Claremont Review of Books, which contains a spirited riposte by him to the Never Trump faction of conservatives.

The diplomat expulsion game is a pointless charade

Diplomats are poker chips. The pomp and mystery that accrues to the diplomatic and intelligence services en poste overseas conceal a simple truth: in today’s world, journalists, bankers, NGOs and bloggers are, far more often than not, better informed than diplomats about the countries in which they operate. I know this to be true in Russia – I speak to senior British and US diplomats in Moscow regularly. Believe me when I say that I can think of half a dozen veteran foreign correspondents in Russia who have considerably more extensive, diverse and senior contacts in the Russian establishment than any Western diplomatic mission.

On guns and porn, morally elevated citizens should tell the busybodies to buzz off

Will foreign pornographers be the last defenders of the Bill of Rights? America is going through one of its periodic seizures of moral grandstanding, with gun owners and supporters of the Second Amendment now deemed so unclean that one may not even have commerce with them. Under pressure from Twitter mobs and activist bullies, companies ranging from Delta Airlines to Google and Walmart have curtailed their firearms-related activities. Delta has scrapped a seldom-used discount for NRA members. Google has banned instructional firearms videos from YouTube.

What are Kim Jong-un’s motives in meeting Xi?

Kim Jong-un surprised the world—once again—by making an unannounced trip to China earlier this week, and observers in the United States still haven’t come to any agreement on what it means. The North Korean leader traveled to Beijing by bulletproof train to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping ahead of a planned meeting later this spring between Kim and American president Donald Trump. Georgetown University professor and American Enterprise Institute scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro told Vox it was “Kim’s desperation”—as well as both leaders’ fears of war—that precipitated the China meeting.

Trump’s new VA Secretary has worked for four successive presidents. The media doesn’t care

Context is everything. But if you’re a busy person trying to navigate the personal and professional traps of modern life – and aren’t we all? – you don’t always have time to read a lot on every topic. You rely on the media to tell you succinctly what you most need to know. But that might be one of the worst traps into which you can fall in Donald Trump’s Washington. Take the latest news as an example. “Trump picks his doctor to replace Shulkin as veterans secretary,” the BBC announced. The Washington Post headline was similar: “Trump ousts Veterans Affairs chief Shulkin, nominates personal physician to replace him.

Why isn’t Donald Trump tweeting about expelling Russian diplomats?

“President Trump ordered the expulsion of 60 Russian officials from the United States and ordered the closure of the Russian consulate in Seattle, the White House announced Monday” was how NPR started its report on the surprise story that started the week in Washington, and most outlets followed suit. In this way, the press emphasised the White House’s preferred narrative of the news. Donald Trump hasn’t uttered a word on Twitter, his favorite medium of communication, about the attempted assassination in Britain of a former Russian spy with a Soviet-era nerve agent. Neither did he bring it up during his phone call to Vladimir Putin last week, in which he congratulated the Russian president on his recent reelection.

Revealed: Cambridge Analytica and the passport king

The Cambridge Analytica story is full of hot air. Everybody delights in talking about how scary Facebook is, and lots of people believe the Donald Trump and Brexit campaigns somehow hoodwinked whole electorates — because, well, how else could they have won? We hear about creepy and sophisticated-sounding techniques such as ‘micro-targeting’ and ‘psychographics’. But there is a far bigger story, which goes beyond the antics of Cambridge Analytica or its parent company, Strategic Communications Laboratories (SCL Group), and other such businesses. It’s about how organisations from the developed world exploit small countries to advance dubious interests and make masses of money. Take passport-selling.

Donald Trump turns on Putin

It seems like only yesterday Donald Trump was buttering up Vladimir Putin. His congratulations on Putin’s victory and failure to mention the nerve agent attack in Salisbury sent the foreign policy establishment in Washington into high dudgeon. Now the administration has expelled 60 Russian diplomats and shuttered the Russian consulate in Seattle. This is only, top administration officials say, ‘the first step.’ The government could also go on to release nasty details about the financial holding that Putin has squirrelled away abroad, a move, incidentally, that could provoke retaliation against Trump by the Kremlin. What gives?

Why John Bolton is no warmonger

The hysteria from the Left over Donald Trump’s appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor to replace Lt. General H. R. McMaster has been partly hilarious, partly alarming to behold. From The Guardian in this country to The New York Times, CNN, Slate, Salon, and beyond in the United States, we are presented with a scarecrow figure who makes Jack D. Ripper in Dr. Strangelove look like Albert Schweitzer after a nap. 'Yes', screamed an editorial in The New York Times, 'John Bolton Really Is That Dangerous'. Bolton is a 'hawk’s hawk', an 'extreme ideologue' and 'warmonger' whose appointment 'scares people' and 'puts us on a path to war'.

Meet the Russian housewives of London

The Russian Orthodox Cathedral in Knightsbridge, London is nestled in a maze of mews streets and embassy rows. It’s as much an expat social club as it is a place of worship, and on Sunday mornings it’s packed to the rafters. In what can sometimes look like one big game of Grand-mother’s Footsteps, the congregation of headscarved women and men in leather jackets quietly make a dash to circulate every time the priests turn their back, while old women maunder about kissing icons and hushing grandchildren. Tatyana Ivanova was conspicuously aloof from all this. I first saw her one Sunday morning in a ray of stained sunlight, her face angelically upturned.

Why did McMaster go?

Everyone wants to know what caused President Trump to dump national security adviser H.R. McMaster.Today’s papers are saying it was because McMaster, addressing the Munich Security Conference in February, said he had ‘incontrovertible’ evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election. Trump was quick to signal his disapproval.‘General McMaster forgot to say that the results of the 2016 election were not impacted or changed by the Russians,’ Trump tweeted, ‘and that the only Collusion was between Russia and Crooked H, the DNC and the Dems.’A Washington source tells Cockburn that McMaster’s gaffe in Munich wasn’t the reason for his retirement. In this telling, McMaster had to go because of a security breach.

Did Trump appoint John Bolton to distract from his spending bill failure?

Another massive America news blizzard yesterday: Trump lawyer quits, tariffs tariffs tariffs, stock-market slide, former alleged mistresses of the President speaking out, McMaster out (finally), Bolton in (finally). And then, as a night cap, the Senate approves a $1.3 trillion spending plan to prevent a government shutdown. The Bolton news has, so far, been the most headline grabbing, even if people in the know — and readers of Spectator USA — have known it was about to happen for some time. Donald Trump has rather sweetly let it be known that he has hired Bolton on the condition he didn’t start any wars: ‘now, now John, don’t you go nuking.’ But people who cherish world peace are right to be alarmed.

Isolationist? Donald Trump appears to be assembling a war cabinet

Is the third time the charm? President Trump has already run through Mike Flynn, who enjoyed the shortest tenure in history of any national security adviser. Next came three-star General H.R. McMaster. Now John Bolton, the former George W. Bush ambassador to the United Nations who has been angling for the job ever since Trump won the 2016 election, has gotten the nod. Bolton’s ascension is temporarily eclipsing other events such as the 700 point stock market plunge today thanks to the imposition of tariffs on China or the resignation of Trump’s lawyer John Dowd. No one personifies the hawkish wing of the GOP better than Bolton whose appointment is being greeted with hosannas by neocons such as Senator Marco Rubio. Diplomacy, in Bolton’s mind, is for wussbags.

John Dowd’s departure raises all kinds of questions

John Dowd, a personal attorney of Donald Trump, stepped down today from his role as head of the legal team representing the president in the special counsel’s investigation of possible collusion with Russia. The news came just as the House Intelligence Committee was set to vote on whether to release a report from Republicans in the group that recommends ending the committee’s investigation into the same subject. If, as House Republicans insist, there’s nothing to see there, why would Dowd resign just before evidence backing up that insistence was about to be made public? As is common with departures connected to President Trump, there are conflicting stories circulating as to the circumstances that led to it.

Will Mark Zuckerberg now admit that Facebook is anti-social?

Zuck speaks! He’s finally responded to the Cambridge Analytica debacle. To be honest, I could have predicted almost word-for-word this evening’s statement: It wasn’t really our fault; it was mostly their fault; we’re a little bit responsible (‘front-up’ I can imagine a comms person insisting); and here are the steps we’ve taken. In fact, we’d already taken most of these steps in 2014, when all this happened. I sensed a weariness to it. He concluded his penultimate paragraph with the phrase ‘going forward’, which is usually a sign someone’s out of ideas. Still, and I can’t quite believe I’m writing this, I almost feel sorry for Mark.

15 years after Iraq, regime change has come to Washington

This week marks 15 years since the start of America’s war in Iraq. Regime change was George W. Bush’s objective, and Saddam Hussein was duly removed, tried, and executed. But Bush could not have counted on how much regime change would also come to Washington as a result of the war. It contributed to the Republicans’ loss of Congress in 2006 and to the failure of Bush’s party to keep control of the White House in 2008. Yet it did even more: it helped to give Barack Obama, an antiwar candidate—and premature winner of a Nobel Peace Prize as president—an edge against Hillary Clinton among the activist left in the 2008 Democratic primaries. As a senator, Mrs. Clinton had, after all, voted for the war. And then there is Donald Trump.

Will Trump take on Big Pharma and the insurance companies?

Yesterday, Donald Trump went to New Hampshire, the ‘Granite State’ or, as he calls it, a ‘drug-infested den’. He has launched an initiative against prescription opioid addiction, and would like to execute drug dealers. He has not specified whether he would prefer to do this in the manner of Dirty Harry, or by a legal and perhaps more appropriate method, such as lethal injection. Some of his audience whooped in approval when he suggested the death penalty for drug dealers. The opioid epidemic is worst among Deplorables, and New Hampshire is a pretty Deplorable state, with plenty of unemployed white gun owners.

Donald Trump is the best thing to happen to his enemies

Let’s face it: Donald Trump remains the best thing to happen to his enemies. Former FBI director James Comey’s forthcoming memoir is already an advance Amazon bestseller. Porn star Stormy Daniels is milking her standoff with Trump lawyer and all-purpose fixer Michael Cohen for publicity and earnings; this Sunday she’s slated to appear on CBS’ venerable 60 Minutes show. Cynthia Nixon, the former star of the cable series “Sex and the City” is following in his footsteps by trading on her celebrity and running for Governor of New York. But all of this is just a warmup to the Mueller investigation. Trump has been breathing fire about Robert Mueller for several days, declaring that the investigation should never have been started.

Sorry folks, but Donald Trump is funny. Intentionally funny

Sooner or later even President Trump’s most ardent detractors are going to have to admit that he is capable of being funny. Intentionally funny. Worse, they’re going to have to admit that he’s funny for precisely the reason that Hillary Clinton isn’t: because he’s able to laugh at himself. Did you see him at CPAC? He bought the house down. Halfway through his speech he seemed to drift off into a kind of reverie. Leaning on the lectern, he saw himself on the monitors. “What a nice picture. Look at that. I’d love to watch that guy speak,” he said, pointing up at the screen. And then, using his hands, turning his back on the audience as if looking in a mirror, he started pretending to work out how the man on the monitor must do his amazing hair.

Not my president: meet the Chinese students standing up to Xi Jinping

At last, some students in the West are campaigning for freedom and democracy. Following years of supposedly rad students banning pop songs about sex, and force-fielding their campuses against offensive speakers, and even expelling certain newspapers from their common rooms as if they were heretical abominations, a group of students has emerged to demand more liberty, not less. They’re Chinese students, studying in Western universities, and the target of their youthful liberal ire is Chinese President Xi Jinping. This week, Xi convinced the annual sitting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, to scrap the two-term limit on presidency. They didn’t take much convincing, by the looks of things.

Why Trump could regret targeting Mueller

Throughout the course of the inquiry on Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, White House lawyers have attempted to drill a message into the president’s head. It is a simple one: whatever you do, don’t go after Robert Mueller personally or suggest in any way that you will shut down the investigation.  You can go after the probe’s integrity, attack the congressional Democrats making political hay over the probe, and push your own counter-narrative about the silliness of it all, but leave the special counsel alone. It is smart, conventional advice that most conventional politicians would take into serious consideration. But Donald Trump, to state the obvious, is not a conventional politician. He does not respond well to being told to be restrained.

Facebook’s privacy failings are no accident

Remember Nudge? It was a 2008 book by Chicago economist Richard Thaler and Harvard Law professor Cass Sunstein, full of bright technocratic ideas for using ‘choice architecture’ to ‘nudge’ the plebs to make the ‘right’ decisions. The Guardian’s reviewer called it ‘never intimidating, always amusing, and elucidating: a jolly economic romp with serious lessons within’.   On Saturday, the Guardian published a whistleblower’s account of how Cambridge Analytica used data originating from ‘tens of millions' of Facebook profiles to construct choice architecture that could nudge the plebs to really vote the ‘right’ way, by using targetted adverts to swing marginal constituencies to the Republicans.

Cambridge Analytica’s use of Facebook is straight from Obama’s playbook

Every few weeks, it seems, Carole Cadwalladr drops a long piece for the Guardian or the Observer about how the Trump and Brexit campaigns mind-hacked democracy. On both sides of the Atlantic, people who don’t like Trump or Brexit share these pieces and shriek. The latest article, which has lit up the political internet this weekend, has the added spice of a whistleblower – a pink-haired ‘data science nerd’ straight out of science-nerd central casting. He’s called Christopher Wylie and Cadwalladr reveals that he has been the source for her much-vaunted scoops on Cambridge Analytica, the data firm who worked with the Trump and Brexit campaigns.

The President vs the FBI

It’s hard to stop watching cable news. Trump sues a former porn star, Stormy Daniels for $20m for saying they had an affair. Three other porn stars claim they were involved with Trump. No! Wait! Six more women are ready to come forward. Stormy Daniels promises a tell-all TV interview. Felix Sater – the former mobster who was Trump’s business partner – actually does his version of a tell-all TV interview. Then, like a manic episode of The Apprentice, come a series of headlines about firings. Trump will fire his National Security Advisor. No! Wait! McMaster survives. At least until next week. Trump’s Secretary of State is fired in a phone call as he – the Secretary of State –sits on the toilet. ‘Tillerson canned on the can.

Meet Boris Titov: the man who wouldn’t be president

Boris Titov is running to be president of Russia, but he’s eager to talk himself out of the job. ‘I am not a good politician,’ he says, over breakfast at the Lanesborough hotel in Knightsbridge, London. ‘To be a president means you need to be wise, a big politician like Thatcher, Deng Xiaoping, Lee Kuan Yew. Russia needs a tough politician in the presidential chair and I am not that man.’ Titov knows that on Sunday, Vladimir Putin, the toughest politician of our age, will be re-elected as Russia’s Supreme Commander-in-Chief. ‘Everybody understands that,’ he says. ‘We are not stupid. I have common sense.’ Which prompts the question: why run?

Tillerson shock? US Forces Korea officials knew about ‘Rexit’ last month

Michael Barbaro, host of the New York Times podcast The Daily, opened Wednesday’s episode with the story of the sacking of the Secretary of State: ‘His relationship with President Trump was rocky from the start, but in the end, nobody was more surprised that Rex Tillerson was fired than Rex Tillerson’. Really? If that’s true, then Tillerson was even more out of touch than anyone realised. American functionaries on the other side of the globe knew last month that a Rexit was imminent. I was in Seoul for the tail end of the Olympics and met with some U.S. Forces Korea officials. One spoke - almost in passing - as though Mike Pompeo was going to replace Rex Tillerson rather soon. He referred to Pompeo by name and his colleagues didn’t contradict him.

Mueller subpoenas Trump Organisation’s Russia documents

When Donald Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, went to Moscow in 2006, she did all the usual tourist things: walked around Red Square, visited the Kremlin... sat in Vladimir Putin’s private chair. At least she did according to Trump’s broker and business partner Felix Sater. ‘I arranged for Ivanka to sit in Putins private chair at his desk and office in the Kremlin,’ Sater said in an email, which was later leaked. Ivanka put out a statement more or less confirming this, saying that she ‘might have’ sat in Putin’s chair, but couldn’t exactly recall. The rest of Sater’s emails were more important as they gave details of his efforts to fix a deal for a Trump Tower in Moscow. ‘I will get Putin on this program and we will get Donald elected...

Donald Trump finally announces sanctions against Russia

Donald Trump today called it a ‘very sad situation.’ The ‘it’ in question is of course the chemical weapons attack in Salisbury, a fresh indicator, if one were needed, of malign Russian intentions toward the West. Even as Theresa May plays, or tries to play, Margaret Thatcher, Trump has been no Ronald Reagan. He doesn’t want anyone 'Russian to judgment', as the joke has it. Instead, when it comes to Moscow, he’s been missing in action, no friend of the United Kingdom. He’s sounded in fact more like the equivocating Jeremy Corbyn than anyone else when it comes to the brouhaha over Salisbury.

Is Donald Trump, like Bush, being taken over by neocons?

The Trump administration’s foreign-policy team is beginning to look a lot like a Marco Rubio foreign policy team. It’s not hard to imagine a generally hawkish Republican like Mike Pompeo serving as Secretary of State under Little Marco, and John Bolton - widely tipped to replace H.R. McMaster as national security adviser - would have turned up sooner or later in any GOP administration, except one led by Sen. Rand Paul. Nikki Haley at the United Nations, meanwhile, has been hailed by neoconservatives as heartily as Bolton was when he served as George W. Bush’s UN ambassador from 2005-6. The hawks don’t like to be called 'neoconservatives', but the neoconservative worldview is their worldview.