Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Thursday

Tom Goodenough

The Special Relationship still trumps Putin

For a president who usually tweets first and asks questions later, Donald Trump’s initial reaction to the Salisbury attack has been curiously slow. Eleven days on from the poisoning of a former Russian agent, Trump’s Twitter account remains silent on the subject. But now that Theresa May is ramping up the rhetoric against Russia – ordering 23 Russian spies to leave Britain – the Trump administration is finally riding firmly behind May, and pointing the finger at Putin in a way it never has before.The White House issued a statement last night saying it ‘stands in solidarity with its closest ally, the United Kingdom’.

Wednesday

Jacob Heilbrunn

Rand Paul denounces Trump’s ‘crazy neocons’

President Trump continues to shake up his White House team. As early as tomorrow he plans to name Larry Kudlow, a senior contributor to CNBC, to replace Gary Cohn as his National Economic Council chief.  Kudlow is an old chum of Trump’s and an inveterate supply-sider whose gospel is that the more you lower tax rates, the more money the government will receive in overall revenues. At the same time, former United Nations ambassador John Bolton remains in play to replace national security adviser H.R. McMaster, though a stumbling block could prove to be whether or not he is willing to shave off the moustache that Trump apparently finds so offensive.

Dominic Green

Democrats should look closer to home to find collusion with Russia

For Donald Trump, yesterday was a bad day to bury good news. While Rex Tillerson’s resignation as Secretary of State dominated the headlines, the biggest and most important story of the day came from Devin Nunes and the Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee. Their news was good for Trump, and very bad indeed for the Democrats and their supporters in the media. For over a year, Nunes' committee has searched for evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election. During that time, the majority of American media have pushed the story that agents of Vladimir Putin not only stole the election and gave it to Trump, but that Trump and his circle ‘colluded’ with them.

Nicholas Farrell

‘I’m fascinated by Mussolini’

We are in a hotel suite at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Zurich when Stephen K. Bannon tells me he adores the fascist dictator Benito Mussolini. But let’s be clear. Bannon — as far as I can tell — is not a fascist. He is, however, fascinated by fascism, which is understandable, as its founder Benito Mussolini, a revolutionary socialist, was the first populist of the modern era and the first tabloid newspaper journalist. Il Duce, realising that people are more loyal to country than class, invented fascism, which replaced International Socialism with National Socialism. He was thus able to ‘weaponise’ — to use a favourite Bannon word — what the people wanted. Bannon is now touring Europe to weaponise what lots of European people seem to want, which is national populism.

Daniel McCarthy

After Pennsylvania, can the GOP win again?

The special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District has ended in a photo finish. There are absentee ballots still to be counted, perhaps a recount to be demanded. But it looks as if the Democrat, Conor Lamb, has won in this district that just two years ago voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 20-point margin. Even if the Republican, Rick Saccone, pulls ahead as the final count comes in, Tuesday’s result portends extinction for the GOP majority in Congress. But that was a safe bet even before this debacle. The better question is not whether Republicans have a prayer of hanging on to the House of Representatives, but what kind of Republican Party might eventually emerge from the wreckage to win again.

Tuesday

Jacob Heilbrunn

With Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, Trump will be more hawkish

The surprising thing isn’t that Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. It is that it took this long. Tillerson, a hapless manager who decapitated much of the senior ranks of the State Department, has finally suffered his own decapitation at the he hands of Trump. His replacement by CIA Director Mike Pompeo signals  a much bolder and more activist Trump foreign policy. At the most basic level Pompeo will work to restore the depleted ranks of the foreign service. His close ties to Trump—he has visited him daily at the White House—means that he will not be at the receiving end of Trump’s barbs as was Tillerson. He will be able to restore some lustre to a once proud institution. Pompeo will also influence policy.

Freddy Gray

Rex Tillerson’s sacking isn’t about Russia

Sometimes it’s almost as if Donald Trump wants the world to think he’s a Russian patsy. Yesterday, Rex Tillerson, as Secretary of State, warned Putin that Russia’s alleged assassination attempt on British soil would trigger ‘a response’. Today he’s been sacked. Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, will become our new Secretary of State. He will do a fantastic job! Thank you to Rex Tillerson for his service! Gina Haspel will become the new Director of the CIA, and the first woman so chosen. Congratulations to all! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 13, 2018 But the firing almost certainly isn’t about Russia. It seems Trump asked Tillerson to go on Friday, a day after Trump agreed to meet Kim Jong-un.

Daniel DePetris

Robert Mueller keeps everyone guessing

Robert Mueller, the former Director of the FBI and special counsel in the soap opera that is the Russia collusion investigation, has been on the case for ten months now. His team of attorneys and Washington prosecutors has interviewed dozens of witnesses, scanned hundreds of thousands of pages of documents, sent an unknown number of subpoenas to members of Donald Trump’s campaign for information or testimony, and is in the process of scheduling an interview with President Trump himself. Through it all, Mueller’s camp has shown impressive self-discipline; unlike Kenneth Starr’s inquest against President Bill Clinton two decades ago, the special counsel’s office is keeping its work in-house.

Monday

James Forsyth

What is behind the British PM’s threat to Russia?

British Prime Minister Theresa May has given Russia until Wednesday to explain why a nerve agent that it has developed was used in an attack in Salisbury, Wiltshire. She told the House of Commons that it was ‘highly likely’ that Russia was responsible for the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter. She said that Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson had summoned the Russian Ambassador and put it to him that were only two explanations for what had happened, one that the Russian government itself was responsible or that Moscow has lost control of its stock of deadly nerve agents. I think it is safe to assume that no explanation, at least not one that would satisfy a reasonable observer, will be provided before Wednesday.

Daniel McCarthy

Is Donald Trump an ‘isolationist’? Or a ‘radical imperialist’? He can’t be both

For two years we’ve been hearing that Donald Trump is an 'isolationist', whatever that word is supposed to mean. Only now two op-ed writers in the New York Times have discovered that he isn’t — instead, Thomas Meaney and Stephen Wertheim write, 'Let’s call Mr. Trump’s vision what it is: radical American imperialism.' Let’s not, because it isn’t true. On the contrary, Donald Trump is the most anti-imperialist president in a generation, even if he is also far from being a mythical 'isolationist'. North Korea is isolationist, and perhaps Meiji Japan was, too. But Great Britain had a world empire when 'splendid isolation' was a maxim of Conservative leaders’ foreign policy in the 19th century.

Friday

Jacob Heilbrunn

At last, an American president grasps the North Korean nettle

Donald Trump’s acceptance of Kim Jong-un’s invitation to meet is a master stroke. It’s exactly the kind of thing Ronald Reagan liked to do. Reagan, you may recall, announced his pursuit of a missile defence system in March 1983 on national television without alerting his advisors beforehand. Liberals went crazy. Then he decided to end the Cold War by reaching out to Mikhail Gorbachev. Conservatives went bonkers. Reagan, we were told, had become a useful idiot. Today he is hailed as a visionary by all and sundry. Whether Trump’s move will work depends in part on how eager the North Korean regime is to escape the increasingly draconian sanctions that have been imposed upon it.

Thursday

Taki

My date with Steve Bannon

Gstaad The muffled sound of falling snow is ever-present. It makes the dreary beautiful and turns the bleak into magic. Happiness is waking up to a winter wonderland. From where I am, I can’t hear the shrieks of children sledding nearby but I can see the odd off-piste skier and the traces they leave. I can no longer handle deep snow, just powder. But I can still shoot down any piste once I’ve had a drink or two. For amusement I listen to the news: flights grounded, trains cancelled, cars backed up on motorways, people stocking up on food and drink as if an atom bomb had been detonated over the Midlands. In Norway it snows every day of the winter and half of the days of autumn and spring. The last time a train was cancelled there was during the German invasion in 1940.

Wednesday

Jeremy Hildreth

What if Donald Trump is the Steve Jobs of politics?

I can understand some people not liking the current president of the United States. As Conrad Black put it recently, ‘Donald Trump is a strange cat and an acquired taste.’ What I don’t understand is people who should know better being afraid of Donald Trump. For example, how can it be that among all the experienced, eccentric and supposedly visionary denizens of Silicon Valley, only Peter Thiel recognised that Donald Trump is cut from the same cloth as the most celebrated tech titans: a disruptor, an innovator, a maverick, and an up-and-coming ‘crazy one,’ in the mould of the myth-makers to whom the famous 1980s Apple ads paid homage?

Curt Mills

John Bolton’s campaign to be National Security Adviser

In my reporting on John Bolton, the hardline former US Ambassador to the UN, I have noticed a trend. Bolton very clearly wants in. And he has a very specific way of going about it. Some context: despite being a George W. Bush alum, Bolton has largely vociferously backed President Donald Trump. Bolton has been considered, alternatively, for Secretary of State, Deputy Secretary of State and National Security Adviser. The world around former White House Chief Strategist Stephen K. Bannon favored him for Secretary of State at one point shortly after the 2016 election. But Bolton, these days beloved by much of the anti-Bush, Breitbart-type crowd, is now focused on one of those positions: National Security Adviser.

donald trump foreign policy
Dominic Green

Donald Trump and the unreality of a two-state solution

The AIPAC conference, that annual celebration of the triangular romance between America, Israel and American Jews, concluded last night with the traditional protestations of undying love, democratic compatibility and common values. Meanwhile, AIPAC’s identity crisis deepens, and a redefinition of the goals of the American-Israeli relationship looms. AIPAC is studiously bipartisan, but the maladroit policies of the Bush and Obama administrations and the rightward turn of Israeli politics since the Second Intifada have made Israel a partisan issue in American politics. A recent Pew survey found more polarization than at any point in the last four decades: 79% of Republicans sided with Israel, but only 27% of Democrats.

Justin Raimondo

Trumpism is taking the GOP back to its industrialist roots

The weeping and wailing that is greeting Trump’s imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum products entering the US is evidence that no one in America knows anything about the history of the Grand Old Party. Paul Ryan and the libertarian right are acting as if the President is betraying some long and distinguished tradition. This is nonsense. The Republican party was founded as an alliance of Big Business and government, with its platform devoted to huge land grants to the railroads, heavy taxes on “sinful” products like alcohol and tobacco, and protective tariffs. The American steel industry has been leading the charge for tariffs since 1820: yes, some things never change.

Freddy Gray

Surprise, surprise — here comes the tariffs retreat

We should by now be used to Trump's modus operandi. But we aren't. We should all know the art of his deals. But we don't. He is the counterpuncher who quite often smacks first and then retreats. Look at the tariffs story now unfolding. It goes like this: Trump makes fierce opening gambit. This shocks everybody apart from his supporters who say that that is exactly what he said he'd do. Finally, a president who does what he promised, they say. The media starts speculating on the collapse of the liberal world order. Then, amid the hyperventilation, Trump backs down. He does so while pretending that he hasn't. Then he blames the Republican Party for not supporting him. We've seen this with healthcare, with immigration reform, and now perhaps with his protectionism.

Tuesday

Jacob Heilbrunn

Red alert: Texas turns blue!

Is Texas, the Lone Star State, about to get a little lonesome for the GOP? There’s been lots of talk in recent months that Senator Ted Cruz may face a stiffer challenge for reelection than he had anticipated. But now a wave of Democratic voter enthusiasm today in primary elections is adding further credibility to that notion. The Washington Post reports that of almost 900,000 ballots cast in early voting, over 52 percent were for Democrats, a substantial boost over the last primary election in 2014. The question that looms for Republicans is this: will Texas turn blue? Is it going to become another California? Republicans are sounding alarms. Texas Senator John Cornyn says it would be “malpractice” not to ramp up Republican efforts to ensure turnout in November.

Alan Mendoza

Why Bibi ♥ Trump

Not many world leaders can claim to be on friendly personal terms with Donald Trump. There are fewer still who would regard a visit to this particular president’s White House as a crowning achievement, and one which would increase their popularity at home rather than being seen as a moral failing. So the lesson of Benjamin Netanyahu’s triumphant meeting with the US president deserves particular scrutiny for having jumped all these hurdles. Admittedly, it helps to be a right wing Israeli Prime Minister at a time of Republican ascendancy. Netanyahu’s relationship with Barack Obama was famously abrasive. Any successor was bound to be an improvement, even if the strong US-Israel relationship goes far deeper than the Presidential level.

Daniel McCarthy

Bureaucracy is more dangerous than the AR-15

Should taking rights away from innocent people be a first resort or a last resort—or no resort at all—in response to a spate of heinous crimes? If we were talking about the First Amendment rights of religious minorities or of free speech, most liberals would insist that people who had committed no crime shouldn’t forfeit any of their liberties. But where the Second Amendment is concerned, these same liberals are quick to call for law-abiding citizens to give up a measure of freedom simply because they are under 21 or want to buy something that progressives don’t like—such as an AR-15 rifle.

Monday

Curt Mills

Last week wasn’t President Trump’s worst so far – it was his best

If accounts in the press are to be believed, President Trump has reached a fresh nadir. “These are the darkest days in at least half a year,” reports The Washington Post. “Sources close to President Trump say he is in a bad place,” chimes in the impressively-sourced Axios. Buried in the Post story is a contradictory take from close friend Chris Ruddy, the Newsmax chief: “I’m bewildered when I see these reports that he’s in turmoil. Every time I speak to him he seems more relaxed and in control than ever. He seems pretty optimistic about how things are shaping up.” At the end of the day, only the top man himself knows how he’s feeling. But read between the lines, and a compelling antithesis emerges.

Friday

Daniel McCarthy

Why Trump’s ‘trade war’ makes strategic sense

Has Donald Trump sparked off a trade war? His plans for a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and 10 percent tariff on aluminum have shocked friend and foe alike. China is outraged; so are Canada, Japan, and South Korea—allies that in fact export more steel to the U.S. than China does. They stand to be hurt worst if they aren’t granted exemptions or cut special deals by the president. Trump accuses the Chinese of 'dumping' steel into the American market, while the legal grounds for his new tariffs rest in the idea that strategically critical manufacturing is endangered by a diminished U.S. metals industry.

Cockburn

Who is blocking John Bolton?

U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis is blocking former Ambassador John Bolton from taking over as National Security Advisor, Cockburn has learned. John Bolton was first reported as heir apparent to McMaster by The National Interest in January. McMaster was nearly ousted from the White House summer of last year, ostensibly by a faction lead by former White House Chief Strategist Stephen K. Bannon. Though the White House officially denied his political demise on Thursday, this time McMaster’s position is far more precarious. NBC News reported earlier in the day Thursday that McMaster was to be imminently replaced—with Ford executive and Bush 43 alum Stephen Biegun, as Bolton was vetoed by Mattis—sending the American capitol aflutter.

Freddy Gray

1,2,3,4 — Trump declares a trade war

‘Whatever complicates the world more — I do,’ Donald Trump once said. As President, that still seems to be his mantra. Everybody knows that he feels America has been ripped off for decades when it comes to global trade — and that he intends address imbalances that hurt his country wherever he can. But his abrupt decision to announce huge tariffs on steel and aluminium has sent shockwaves across the world. It has thrown global markets into a panic. It has caused division in his White House and put him at odds with his party establishment, which is ideologically committed to free trade and terrified of protectionism. It is vintage Trump, in other words. The great disruptor strikes again. So what is he doing?

Curt Mills

Trump is serious about gun control

A friend who works for a prominent, hardline conservative think tank writes: 'So, can we all admit that Trump is basically a Democrat now on guns?' On Wednesday, I wrote that American gun reform is close to happening. In the intervening hours, that view has been buttressed by a series of comments from the president of the United States. It seems a perverse fate that Donald Trump, the bogeyman of progressive America, should turn out to be the means a delivering a measure of gun reform. Trump in Washington Wednesday promised 'beautiful' and 'comprehensive' (read: if the immigration debate phrasing is any indication—liberal) reform. On Wednesday, I mentioned Pennsylvania as a flashpoint political state for Republicans considering reform.

Thursday

James Delingpole

Think being pro-Trump is bad? Try being pro-Brexit

When I mentioned on social media recently that I’d lost friends because of Brexit, I was quite surprised by the vehemence of the response. Lots of fellow Leavers had stories to tell about friends who now cut them dead or former clients who would no longer work with them. Many said they prefer to keep secret how they voted in the referendum for fear of the repercussions.This intolerance is especially bad if you’re a student. One undergraduate described to me how his politics professor had opened a lecture with a slide reading ‘Brexit is shit’ — apparently ‘to the cheers and adulation of the entire lecture theatre’.

iandouglas

Rolling tanks, plastic flowers and madness on parade: A visit to North Korea

As Kim Jong-un might blow up the world next year, if not this, and people are forever trying to work out what is going on in his country, perhaps it is worth describing a military parade I attended in Pyongyang a few years back. The occasion was the centenary of the birth of the current Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, the founder of the Marxist monarchy who, despite his death more than two decades ago, remains Eternal Leader of the nation. Other attendees included some flotsam and jetsam of the Cold War, a reunion of the Axis of Evil and representatives from various other rogue states and immiserated nations. Presuming it to be one of the better covers under which to pass as an admirer of the regime, I claimed to be a schoolteacher from England.

Daniel DePetris

America’s involvement in the Yemen war is unconstitutional — and stupid

Only very rarely in today’s Washington, D.C. is a cause so strong that it brings together America’s most famous progressive with one of the country’s most ideological conservatives. But the nasty, bloody, and intractable proxy war in Yemen - and the U.S. military’s involvement in it - is one of those causes. Yesterday afternoon, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Utah Senator Mike Lee held a press conference on Capitol Hill to unveil the introduction of a resolution that, if passed by both houses of Congress, would compel a withdrawal of all U.S. military assets from the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthi rebels.

Curt Mills

American gun reform is close to happening

It seems a perverse fate that Donald Trump, the bogeyman of progressive America, should turn out to be the president who ends up delivering a measure of gun reform. In the wake of the Valentine’s Day massacre at Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida, President Trump has delivered a series of remarks promising a ‘beautiful’ comprehensive gun bill that will expand background checks on gun purchases, remove guns from the hands of the mentally ill, bolster security on school campuses and restrict young people from purchasing certain weapons. Trump, clearly, sees an opportunity to triangulate between the National Rifle Association, firmly supported by much of his base, and the at least equally powerful gun reform lobby. He’s also recognising a political reality.

Freddy Gray

Trump loses fourth spin doctor as Hope Hicks quits

Every week is extraordinary in the Trump administration — but this week seems stranger than most. Matters are rumbling in the belly of the beast. On Tuesday, we learned that Jared Kushner had his security clearance downgraded. Today, we learn that Hope Hicks, famously Trump’s most trusted aide, has resigned, a day after she testified to the House Intelligence Committee as part of the Russia investigation. Hicks stonewalled questions from the committee for several hours, though she did reportedly open up a little on certain aspects of Trump’s transition. She is the fourth Trump White House communications director to quit in just over a year. It can't be easy leading the war against fake news.

Tuesday

Chris Pope

American Healthcare versus the British system

Donald Trump recently disparaged Britain’s National Health Service for “going broke and not working,” leading Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt to express his pride in a system “where all get care no matter the size of their bank balance.” But the news has been filled for months with stories of people unable to access care they need under the NHS, regardless of their efforts or financial resources. Beyond the nationalistic pride and defensiveness of politicians both sides of the Atlantic, how do British and American healthcare really compare? Are both sides as crazy as the other imagines, or do they each know something the other can learn from? Sweeping generalizations regarding the nature of American health insurance are so popular because the reality is so complicated.

Freddy Gray

Is Jared Kushner’s power really waning?

It was always ridiculous that Jared Kushner, an amiable 37-year-old who had no diplomatic, political or military experience, should have had top-level ‘SCI’ security access as a senior member of the White House — just because he happened to be the President’s son-in-law. Well now, he’s been downgraded, as Politico reports. He continues to have 'secret level’ access, which is still pretty silly when you think about it. But the downgrading signals that Kushner, who just a few weeks ago was still thought to be the supreme power in the White House, is losing influence. It also suggests that General John Kelly, Trump’s chief of staff, is taking further charge of international affairs.

Freddy Gray

The unstoppable gun reform lobby

He did not address how he might respond to the inevitable debate that will now consume America over the legality of assault weapons. Again, here he differs from Obama, who for instance used his speech in the wake of the Umpqua Community College shooting in Oregon to make an appeal for what he called ‘common-sense gun legislation’. The irony, however, is that whereas Obama consistently fell short in his attempts to ban what he called ‘weapons of war’ and establish tighter legal controls of who can buy guns, Donald Trump might now succeed. The 45th president has so far flip-flopped on the banning of assault weapons – as he has on other culture-war issues such as abortion and gay marriage. In 2000, he said, ‘I support the ban on assault weapons.

Monday

Stephen Daisley

Justin Trudeau’s Captain Snowflake tour of India

If your week was less than fun, spare a thought for Justin Trudeau. The Canadian Prime Minister’s seven-day visit to India went down like an undercooked biriyani on the subcontinent. When he landed in New Delhi last Saturday, Trudeau was greeted on the tarmac, not by the Prime Minister or Foreign Minister but by the junior minister for agriculture and farmers’ welfare. Other world leaders, including Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu, have been given a personal welcome by Narendra Modi. Prime Minister Modi, a savvy social media user, failed even to note Trudeau’s arrival on Twitter, though on the same day he found time to tweet about plans to unveil a new shipping container terminal.