Scotland

MSPs were up until the early hours last night at Holyrood debating amendments to the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland Bill). Make no mistake, this is an exceptionally bad piece of legislation in the making – though it might have been less bad had a few more of those amendments been accepted by Nicola Sturgeon’s government. But the SNP weren't the only party painting Scottish politics in a bad light. During the debate, Labour MSP, Mercedes Villalba, took it on herself to start policing the language of others in the chamber. Villalba aimed her fire at the SNP's Kenny Gibson – for daring to say something that many people also believe: that trans women are not women. 'Would the member like to clarify in what way the previous contribution demonstrated respect?

One of the fundamental flaws in the Scottish devolution settlement set up by Labour and radically expanded by the Tories is the ability for policy divergence in Scotland to impact on the rest of the UK. The Gender Recognition Reform Bill, on the cusp of being passed by the Scottish parliament, might prove an object lesson. The Bill overhauls the process by which a person obtains a gender recognition certificate (GRC). This is the document which recognises an applicant’s gender identity in place of their biological sex. For example, a male who identifies as female and acquires a GRC becomes female in the eyes of the law.  The Bill being pushed through Holyrood by Nicola Sturgeon’s government makes this process easier, faster and open to more people.

The Scottish parliament will today consider final amendments to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. The Bill, a key priority of Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP-Green government, will update the Gender Recognition Act 2004, the legislation governing the acquisition of a gender recognition certificate (GRC). Once a person obtains a GRC, ‘the law will recognise them as having all the rights and responsibilities appropriate to a person of their acquired gender’.  At present, a man who wishes the law to recognise him as a woman, or vice versa, must be at least 18 years of age and must undergo a long process based on medical evidence of gender dysphoria.

In recent years, the SNP haven't always covered themselves in glory in Westminster. Whether it's silly stunts in the chamber or the botched complaint against the-then Chief Whip, Scotland's party of government always seems to be at the centre of some various embarrassment. Still, one nat has managed to impress on both sides of the House: Stewart McDonald, the party's longtime spokesman for defence. McDonald held this post for more than five years in the Commons and joined the Foreign Affairs Committee (FAC) too in March 2020. In the latter role he won plaudits for his tough talk on China and foreign disinformation, earning a reputation as one of the more insightful inquisitors on the panel.

Two self delusions have sustained the SNP through the past couple of decades of devolution. The first is the perennial grievance that deteriorating public services are the result of Westminster austerity. The second is that Scotland’s social problems can be solved through redistribution – by taxing the rich. Both have now collapsed in the face of harsh reality. Low-growth Scotland generates less wealth each year, there are precious free rich left to tax and the public sector remains utterly dependent on financial life-support from the UK exchequer. This is an economy of almost colonial dependency, far removed from the image of independence propaganda. Deputy first minister John Swinney’s latest Scottish Budget remains very firmly in the land of delusion.

The Scottish Government has courted controversy with its social policy agenda: sweeping hate crime legislation, and gender recognition changes that undermine women's rights. But what’s coming down the tracks at Holyrood looks even more troubling. In fact, the next item on the agenda could be one of the most controversial seen since devolution. Following activists’ demands, politicians’ promises and the rowing back on parallel plans by the UK government, the Scottish government is moving towards a ban on so-called ‘conversion practices’.  Some readers might take umbrage with this suggestion.

Finally, good news on the strike front: NHS staff in Scotland have decided against walking out after voting to accept an improved pay offer from the Scottish government. The deal means healthcare workers will get pay rises ranging from £2,205 to £2,751. But this isn’t an offer to end all strike threats yet – nurses and physiotherapists are yet to decide whether they will halt strike action after the government’s latest offering. For now, Nicola Sturgeon is hailing the announcement as a victory: the SNP's health secretary Humza Yousaf – who has faced calls to resign as NHS waiting lists continue to grow – welcomed the decision by Unite and Unison to accept the 'record pay offer'.

The SNP should be basking in its recent formidable polling success. Not only does support for independence appear to be on the rise – with 56 per cent in favour, according to the latest Ipsos Mori poll – but there is evidence too that the SNP could win an outright majority in the next Scottish parliament elections. So why does the party appear to be falling apart? Three front bench resignations in as many days doesn’t look like a party at peace with itself.   The Westminster group of SNP MPs is roiled by divisions and rancour. The palace coup by the 34-year-old Stephen Flynn against veteran Westminster leader Ian Blackford has caused a whole lot of upset.

No matter how heavily it snows today nothing will be as frosty as Pete Wishart's resignation letter. The senior SNP MP has exited the front bench following the coup that replaced Ian Blackford with relative newcomer Stephen Flynn.  Blackford is an ally of Nicola Sturgeon and discontent had grown in the party's Westminster group of MPs about his perceived lack of independence from the leadership in Scotland. Flynn, who at 34 only entered Parliament in 2019, is expected to put distance between his Westminster group and the SNP government in Edinburgh. As MP for Aberdeen South he is seen as less hostile to the North Sea oil and gas industry than Sturgeon, a recent convert to the climate cause.  https://twitter.

Nicola Sturgeon did not want Stephen Flynn to be the new leader of the SNP at Westminster. His victory represents not only a generational shift – Flynn is 34 and his deputy Mhairi Black is 28 – but a sharp left turn in political sensibilities. Where outgoing Commons leader Ian Blackford was cautious and loyal to Sturgeon, the Flynn-Black team is expected to be more independent-minded.  Their instincts are closer to those of the SNP grassroots: they are impatient with the pace of progress towards another referendum. The Supreme Court ruling on where the power to call a referendum lies has only thrown such frustrations into relief. The SNP will have to find a new way forward and a fresher, younger face was thought better suited to that task.

There have been strange goings on in Scotland. A few weeks ago, the Supreme Court clarified that the Scottish parliament does not have the power to unilaterally call a second independence referendum. The ruling was never going to have gone down well with the SNP, but has the Supreme Court’s slap down sent the nationalist movement doolally?  Take the strange case of Michael Russell’s comparison of the current UK government to the British Raj in the days of the Empire. On Sunday, the president of the SNP and former Scottish government minister defended an article he had written in the pro-independence newspaper The National which appeared to draw this parallel. Is such a comparison appropriate, mused the host of BBC Radio Scotland’s The Sunday Show, in an interview with Russell.

Ian Blackford has resigned after five years as Westminster leader of the SNP. In a statement he said the time was right for ‘fresh leadership’ and that he will not be standing for reelection at the group’s AGM next week. The announcement comes just a fortnight after the Ross, Skye and Lochaber MP survived an attempted coup. He is continuing as an MP. Just weeks ago Blackford survived a challenge from the Aberdeen South MP, Stephen Flynn, who attempted to overthrow him. SNP backbenchers had grown unhappy with Blackford’s leadership after several scandals during his tenure. Flynn had been on manoeuvres against Blackford for months.

Is Whitehall at last baring its teeth in response to the Scottish government and SNP’s separatism push? A look into how the Scottish civil service conducts itself is long overdue.  Scotland Secretary Alister Jack confirmed earlier this week that senior civil servants in the Cabinet Office are examining whether their Edinburgh counterparts should be allowed to keep working on plans for independence following last week’s Supreme Court ruling. Unless Whitehall intervenes or the Scottish government junks its plans, around £1.5 million worth of taxpayer money will reportedly continue to be spent each year on the team of 25 civil servants tasked with providing a revised prospectus for separation.

Last week’s Supreme Court ruling on Scottish independence will offer scant encouragement to separatists in Catalonia. The crux of the judgment – that Holyrood’s devolved powers do not stretch as far as being able to hold an independence referendum without consent from Westminster – also highlights the problem for Catalan secessionists, who have yet to secure Madrid’s approval for a vote on divorcing Spain. Nicola Sturgeon has said she will respect the judgment. Similar prohibitions, though, haven’t stopped Catalonia’s separatists, who are in many ways more rebellious than their Scottish counterparts. In 2017, Spain’s Constitutional Court ruled that an independence referendum planned by Catalonia’s then-president, Carles Puigdemont, would be illegal.

In many ways, the biggest political development of this week was the Supreme Court ruling that a referendum bill would be outside the competence of the Scottish parliament. This unanimous decision – and the fact that the UK government isn’t budging on a Section 30 order which would allow another referendum – means Nicola Sturgeon is being forced to fall back on her plan to try and turn the next election into a de facto referendum on independence. As I say in the Times today, this is a risky strategy.  But even if Sturgeon falls short of the majority of the vote she is seeking in 2024, unionists will still have questions to answer. How do they reduce support for independence in the medium term? And in what circumstances would they accept another referendum?