Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Monday

Ross Clark

This vote marks the beginning of the end for Boris Johnson

There is a school of thought, expressed by Fraser Nelson here this morning, that the Prime Minister’s Tory opponents have shot their bolt too soon, that they should have waited for a couple of by-election defeats and for the emergence of a clear front-runner to replace Boris Johnson, before sending in their letters of no confidence. This analysis is right in that Johnson will very likely gain more votes that MPs vote against him this evening. Whether that really amounts to ‘winning’ is another matter. Historic precedence suggests that Keir Starmer is correct when he asserts that today’s confidence vote marks the beginning of the end for the Prime Minister.

Isabel Hardman

Team Boris doesn’t have long to convince the waverers

Now that the confidence vote in Boris Johnson’s leadership is on, Conservative MPs have suddenly become very busy, while senior Tories are breaking cover to declare that they no longer support the Prime Minister either. Jeremy Hunt, currently the favourite to replace Johnson with some bookies, has surprised no one by announcing that 'today I will be voting for change'.  Perhaps more surprising has been the resignation of Johnson's anti-corruption tsar John Penrose, who sent his letter in this morning.

Steerpike

Estonian PM: When will Macron stop talking to genocidal Putin?

Alongside Britain, Estonia has been among Kyiv’s staunchest allies in its efforts to repulse Putin’s forces, delivering more military equipment to Ukraine since February as a portion of GDP per capita than any other country in the world. Kaja Kallas, its prime minister, is in London today and spoke at her country’s embassy. She took questions on a range of topics and didn't hold back - especially when it came to Emmanuel Macron. Kallas was very much singing from the same song-sheet as Kuleba when she effectively accused Macron of appeasing genocide He has tried to position himself as a mediator between Putin and the west throughout this conflict, only to end up being played like a $10 banjo.

Steerpike

Dorries goes for Hunt amid Tory civil war

Ding, ding, ding! In the blue corner, it’s Nadine Dorries, the Culture Secretary and Boris-backer par excellence. And, er, also in the blue corner, is Jeremy Hunt, her fellow Tory MP and noted Johnson critic. Ahead of tonight’s no-confidence vote, Hunt has (finally) nailed his colours to the mast and admitted he will not be voting in support of the man who he ran against in 2019. Hunt tweeted this morning that: ‘Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change.

Freddy Gray

We’ll miss Boris if he goes

Boris Johnson is often talked about as the luckiest politician on earth — and in a sense he has been. Outrageous fortune powered his ascent. A child of privilege, he always seemed to get away with it, no matter what it might be. In elections, his timing has been almost miraculously perfect, culminating in his big win over the hapless Jeremy Corbyn in 2019. But Lady Luck turns out to be the cruellest mistress Boris ever had. She built him up to tear him down. And if this ‘Jubilee Coup’ — and tonight’s vote of no confidence — end up removing him from power, he may be looked back on as one of Britain’s unluckiest Prime Ministers. Many will feel delight at his demise. Many will be relieved. Those feelings won’t last. They hate him now.

James Forsyth

From now on, Boris is in a daily fight for survival

Up until now, the Tory leadership rules have protected Boris Johnson. The requirement that 15 per cent of MPs must send in a letter sets a high bar for a no-confidence ballot, as demonstrated by how long it took the rebels to get the numbers against both Johnson and May. But from now on, the rules work against him. Johnson will likely win tonight’s vote. But that does not mean he will lead the Tories into the next election The reason for this is that because the bar is so high for a no-confidence ballot it means that a substantial number of the leader’s own MPs will vote no confidence in them. Once that has happened it cannot be undone. Johnson will be wounded by the result tonight even if he wins.

Patrick O’Flynn

The Tories are becoming ungovernable

Today’s no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson is best seen as the next stage of a determined long-term plot to bring him down rather than as a stand-alone event. That is to say, Johnson will not be safe or restored to anything like full political health simply by winning it. Unless he triumphs by a crushing margin, he will have been further weakened and face new waves of attacks from a Labour opposition into whose lap huge amounts of extra ammunition will have been deposited by Conservative backbenchers. One can almost already hear Keir Starmer at PMQs this week making the taunting observation that ‘more than a hundred of the people sitting behind him right now agree with most of the British people that he isn’t fit for office’.

Katy Balls

Boris to face confidence vote tonight

14 min listen

Boris Johnson will face a confidence vote tonight. Announcing the news this morning, the chair of the 1922 committee Sir Graham Brady said in a statement: 'The threshold of the 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded.' Will he win? Katy Balls speaks to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman.

Robert Peston

The dilemma facing Tory MPs

There are two questions for Tory MPs today. One, do they believe that the PM will cost them or save them their seats at the next general election. Two, how pernicious to confidence in the important institutions of government is the widespread perception that the politician at its apex is dishonest. The first question is about the future of the Tory party. The other is about the future of the UK. They are of course linked. Tory critics of Mr Johnson say that he is now, in the words of one, ‘our Jeremy Corbyn’, by which they mean large numbers of potential Conservative voters will never again vote for their party while he is leader.

Fraser Nelson

The attempt to depose Boris may be premature

As Tory MPs vote this evening, Jesse Norman’s letter stands as the most recent case for the deposing of the Prime Minister. But the letter itself may well end up helping Boris Johnson, given its oddly weak arguments from one of the Conservative party’s big thinkers. I’m one of those who has been disappointed with the Boris project: his lockdowns (with all of the immense social damage), a tax burden at a 70-year high, a spending-splurge instinct, lack of any idea what to do with Brexit and allowing another welfare crisis to incubate due to lack of attention. But Norman mentions none of these things. And it raises questions as to what the alternative plan is. In his letter, Norman talks about the No.

Katy Balls

Boris to face confidence vote tonight

After months of anonymous threats and speculation, Boris Johnson will face a confidence vote by Tory MPs this evening. Announcing the news this morning, the chair of the 1922 committee Sir Graham Brady said in a statement:'The threshold of the 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded. The vote presents a moment of peril for Johnson. In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 18:00 and 20:00 today MONDAY 6th JUNE - details to be confirmed.'So, what comes next? No. 10 have chosen to move quickly – as Theresa May did when she faced a confidence vote and won it. It will be held this evening with the votes to be counted immediately afterwards.

Jesse Norman

Why I can no longer support Boris Johnson

Dear Boris, As you know, I have supported you throughout your career in politics: for Mayor of London in 2008 and 2012, and for Leader in 2016 and 2019. As Prime Minister, you have been dealt a very difficult hand with Covid and Ukraine, and you deserve great credit for much of the way in which the Government has handled these twin crises. Your recent visit to Kyiv was a conspicuous act of leadership. When I stepped down from the Treasury last September, you raised the topic of the next reshuffle, and we discussed the potential for me to run a department of state. I have always been deeply committed to public service.

Sunday

Steerpike

Will a Jubilee coup topple Boris?

Long to reign over us? That’s the question Conservative MPs are pondering this weekend about their leader Boris Johnson. The boos and jeers that greeted him at St Paul’s on Friday were in stark contrast to the warmth and affection exhibited towards the Queen all week. It’s prompted several nervy Tories to consider putting in their letter of no-confidence to Sir Graham Brady – the chairman of the 1922 committee – amid much talk about whether the magic threshold of 54 letters has finally been reached. It has previously been suggested that Sir Graham would not make such an announcement until after the Jubilee festivities had concluded. Will tomorrow be that day? Timing is everything in politics: some of the anti-Johnsonites fear that a vote will come too soon.

Liam Duffy

Prevent and the problem of ‘political correctness’

Britain is reviewing its cornerstone anti-terror programme. As the name implies, Prevent is a strategy designed to stop radicalisation before it metastasises into killer intent. But how well is it working? There have been accusations that Prevent is discriminatory. Groups such as Liberty and the Muslim Council of Britain have criticised the anti-terror strategy for targetting Muslims, arguing that it has caused hurt to Britain’s Islamic communities. But there are also criticisms that, even on its own terms, the Home Office programme isn’t working as well as it should. Dame Sara Khan, the social cohesion tsar, last week warned that efforts to tackle Islamist extremism are being hampered by ‘political correctness’.

Patrick O’Flynn

Is the fall of Boris inevitable?

A funny thing happened on the way to the cathedral for the service of thanksgiving to the Queen on Friday. It wasn’t just that Boris Johnson got booed, it was also that Sadiq Khan got cheered. GB News solemnly reported that the Mayor of London ‘received extensive cheers from members of the public who were adorned with Union Jack hats and flags’. So who were these royalist admirers of Mr Khan and detractors of Mr Johnson? I don’t know and neither do you. Given that the mayor secured an underwhelming vote share last year and is one of Labour’s most partisan figures, it seems a stretch to think of him as a figure capable of commanding great acclaim among the monarchists of England.

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows round-up: Boris would win confidence vote

Out to bat for the government this morning was Transport Secretary Grant Shapps. The BBC's Sophie Raworth asked Shapps about Boris Johnson’s St Paul's visit as part of the Jubilee weekend Friday. As the Prime Minister and his wife ascended the steps to the cathedral, they were met with a chorus of boos from the awaiting crowd. Raworth asked Shapps for his reaction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5-t2eSQI6w PM would win a vote of confidence Raworth questioned what the personal unpopularity of the Prime Minister might mean, firstly for the upcoming by-elections in Tiverton and Wakefield, and secondly, if that could mean a vote of confidence was on the cards: https://www.youtube.com/watch?

Terry Barnes

Why did the new Australian PM insult the Queen?

Timing is everything in politics. This week in Canberra a new junior minister, an obscure Australian Labor Party MP named Matt Thistlethwaite, was sworn in by the Queen’s representative, Governor-General David Hurley. His portfolio: Assistant Minister for the Republic. A minister of the Crown sworn to bring about the demise of the Crown in Australia. When Australia’s new strongly left-wing prime minister and admiring friend of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, Anthony Albanese, announced his government would include a minister dedicated to making Australia a republic, his timing was calculated and deliberate.

Saturday

Benedict Rogers

What the Tiananmen Square massacre teaches us about Xi’s China

As millions of Brits celebrate the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, others will be gathering outside the Chinese Embassy in London to mark a different event: the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Beijing has done its best to wipe this day from the history books, but it’s vital we don’t forget an event that has foreshadowed the direction the Chinese Communist Party has taken in the years since. 33 years ago on the streets of China’s capital, we saw the true nature of the Chinese regime as it turned its guns and tanks on thousands of peaceful protesters. ‘They were shooting, people were running, and people tried to rescue others,’ said Jan Wong, a veteran Canadian journalist who was in Tiananmen Square on the day of the massacre.

Julian Jessop

Are we heading for a Platinum Jubilee recession?

Occasionally I despair of my own profession. Even economists should be able to enjoy a long weekend. Yet some of us are stuck debunking commentary on the economic impact of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations – much of which justifies the old tag of the ‘dismal science’. The long Jubilee weekend will indeed mean that economic activity, as usually assessed, is lower than it would otherwise have been. The output and income lost due to the temporary shutdown of most businesses will only partially be offset by increased spending in other areas, or recouped later. We have, of course, been here before. The monthly measure of UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.2 per cent in June 2002 (during the Golden Jubilee celebrations), and by 1.

Friday

Steerpike

Boris booed at Queen’s celebrations

Tory plotters have been keen to stress that any plans to oust Boris Johnson as Prime Minister are strictly on hold during the Platinum Jubilee weekend. But that doesn’t mean Johnson’s political woes are going away. The great and the good were at St Paul’s Cathedral for the Queen’s Jubilee Thanksgiving service this morning. While the Monarch herself was unable to attend, Priti Patel, in a bright pink dress and hat, Keir Starmer, in his usual blue lounge suit, and Sadiq Khan, in tow with his wife, were among those in attendance. The event, though, was not exactly the smooth operation that organisers had hoped for. Five Royal Air Force soldiers, who were rigidly standing by as guests walked into the service, collapsed in the cathedral’s grounds.