Politics Archives

Wednesday

16 November 2022

The decline and fall of Sergei Lavrov

First came the claims that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was admitted to hospital in Bali on arriving for the G20 summit. No, we were then told by spokeswoman Maria Zakharova – it was ‘the ultimate fake’. Then local accounts emerged, saying that he popped in ‘for a check-up’. But does any of it matter? On the face of it, it should. Vladimir Putin, true to form, havered as to whether to attend the summit, apparently deciding less than a week beforehand not to, both for security reasons but also because he knew that he would hardly get a warm welcome. The prospect of being publicly shunned and taken to task was enough to keep him home. With Putin not willing to leave the comfort of his bunker, the task of representing Russia fell to Lavrov.

Charles Lipson

Trump’s pox upon his party

Donald Trump has some well-proven abilities – the ability to cost Republicans winnable elections for the House and Senate, the ability to undermine citizens’ confidence in election outcomes (without providing solid proof the elections were stolen) and the ability to foment some of America’s worst, anti-democratic elements. Trump’s status as party leader contributed to Republicans’ anemic showing in 2022. He was hardly alone in dragging down the party, but he contributed to the losses in two ways. First, the candidates he pushed over the finish line in the primaries disappointed in the general election. His only clear-cut victory was the endorsement of J.D.

Amber Athey

Trump announces 2024 bid

Former US president Donald Trump last night announced his candidacy for the 2024 election at his Florida resort in Mar-a-Lago in a swanky ballroom. The room was adorned in gold and Trump had a row of American flags at his back as he said he would run for president for the third time. Trump earned some ire from the GOP base last week when he attacked Florida governor Ron DeSantis and Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, but this has not released his grip on the Republican Party. He opened his speech with a promise: ‘America’s comeback starts now.’ It’s ‘Make America Great Again’ …again. ‘This is not a task… for a conventional candidate,’ Trump said last night. ‘This is a task for a movement.

Jake Wallis Simons

The troubling rise of the Israeli far-right

Something troubling has happened in Israel. The previous government, before it collapsed earlier this month, had been remarkable for its glorious diversity, both political and ethnic. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid shared a rotating prime ministership, presiding over a coalition of parties spanning the entire political spectrum. It was the first administration to include Arab parties; when I met him last year, Issawi Frej, the country’s first Arab minister, told me that he firmly rejected Amnesty’s ‘apartheid Israel’ slur, and envisioned a role for himself in building on the Abraham Accords. Now here was a country that it felt good to defend. The Jewish diaspora loved all this, hailing Israel at its best.

Tuesday

15 November 2022

Svitlana Morenets

The missile strike on Poland will be a test for Nato

Since the start of the war, there has been a risk of Ukraine’s neighbours being caught in crossfire – especially when Russia turned to a missile-based strategy. This now seems to have happened, with two rockets hitting the Polish village of Przewodów, nearly six miles from Ukraine’s border, killing two farm workers. The stakes are obviously high: if Russian missiles struck a Nato member for the first time, that has implications. US president Joe Biden has said it is ‘unlikely’ that the missile was fired from Russia while Turkey said it must ‘respect’ Moscow’s fervent denial that Russia (which had just fired 100 missiles at Ukraine in a third wave of attacks) had anything to do with the strike.

Isabel Hardman

Is there anything we don’t know about Hunt’s Autumn Statement?

What does Jeremy Hunt want us to know about the Autumn Statement? The Chancellor is in the final hours of writing the economic announcements for Thursday, and today he had his last Treasury questions in the Commons before he gives his long speech. Hunt has been rolling the pitch more assiduously than an MCC groundsman over the past few weeks, with endless briefings about black holes, tax rises and unpopular spending cuts. Today, he was talking again about how 'difficult' things were going to be. He said: 'Despite the difficulty of the package I will be announcing, I will sadly not be drinking any whisky as I do so.' Hunt also insisted that 'we will approach the difficult situation that we face progressively' and 'will ask those who have more to give more'.

Cindy Yu

Why is the workforce shrinking?

11 min listen

Figures released today show that the number of people in employment has dropped by 50,000 since September, despite a national worker shortage of 1.25 million. Does this shed some light on the recession? Are these shortages simply because of disputes over pay or could the NHS waiting list be to blame? Also on the podcast, as public sector pay stagnates, how many will be lost to the private sector? Cindy Yu speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth. Produced by Cindy Yu and Oscar Edmondson.

Lisa Haseldine

Russia receives the cold shoulder at Bali’s G20 summit

In the warmth of the Balinese sunshine, Russia has received an unsurprisingly frosty reception at the G20 summit. We are barely a few hours into the summit and the tension is already acute. The source of this tension, of course, is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is the first G20 held since the beginning of the Ukraine war earlier this year. Ahead of the summit, some member states were already questioning whether Russia should still be allowed to retain its membership of the group. Meanwhile, in light of the war, Ukraine was invited to participate in this year’s summit as a guest. Perhaps in anticipation of this, it was announced last week that Russian president Vladimir Putin would not be attending. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has gone in his place.

Ross Clark

The case for letting council tax rise

We have now been primed for so many tax rises that Thursday’s autumn statement will inevitably come as some form of relief. Whatever Jeremy Hunt announces is sure to be milder than the possibilities fed to us over the past few weeks. But there is one suggested tax rise which is far too mild, and far too reasonable. Local authorities, it has been floated, may be allowed to put up their council tax bills by up to 5 per cent without having to put it to the public in a referendum (a referendum which, needless to say, would swallow up a good slice of any extra revenue gained). If the government wants to continue to fund social care from council tax it should look at introducing extra council tax bands Five per cent would amount to a sharp rise in council tax compared with recent years.

Freddy Gray

Will Trump run?

‘I don’t think anyone knows,’ someone close to Donald Trump told me at the end of last week. ‘My guess is he does but that’s just a guess.’ My question, of course, was ‘Is Donald Trump still going to announce?’ — despite the mid-term disappointments for his movement and the increasing certainty among Republican analysts that the party cannot win with him as its public face? He's expected to announce at 9 pm Eastern Standard Time – 2 am tomorrow, BST – after he declared yesterday on his Truth Social media platform that ‘Hopefully, tomorrow will turn out to be one of the most important days in the history of our country!

Steerpike

Is Rishi backsliding on China already?

It used to be said that political parties were Eurosceptic in opposition, but Europhile in government. The same perhaps could now be said of China. Back in July, Rishi Sunak was keen to talk tough on the Beijing behemoth, which he called Britain's 'biggest long-term threat'. He tweeted that 'China and the Chinese Communist party represent the largest threat to Britain and the world's security and prosperity this century'. And Sunak also accused China of 'stealing our technology and infiltrating our universities' in one punchy attack: Abroad, they are propping up Putin’s fascist invasion of Ukraine by buying his oil and attempting to bully their neighbours, including Taiwan.

James Snell

Iran’s protests are coming to a head

Iran’s protest movement appears to be coming to a head. It’s been going on for two months, since the country’s ‘morality police’ beat Mahsa Amini, a young woman visiting Tehran, into a coma from which she never recovered earlier this year. The reason these thugs gave for dragging her into their van was that she was wearing her mandatory hijab incorrectly. Ever since, Iranians of all ages, across the country, have been on the streets, protesting for ‘women, life, freedom’. Now the violence of that initial act is radiating outwards.

Kate Andrews

UK workforce falls, vacancies at 1.23 million

The workforce has not sprung back. According to the latest labour market figures, released by the Office for National Statistics today, the UK workforce is falling, not rising. Employers may be crying out for workers but the number in employment fell by 52,000 in the three months to September, twice what was expected. This was due to a remarkable drop of 249,000 in September alone. Meanwhile, job vacancies still stand near the record high, at 1.23 million – about twice the average seen in the past decade. Unemployment, by formal definition, has fallen: a dip of 0.2 percentage points on the quarter, down to 3.6 per cent. Very few people seeking work are struggling to find it.

Monday

14 November 2022

Winston Marshall

Michael Shellenberger: What Just Stop Oil gets wrong and COP27 corruption

64 min listen

With climate activists around the world vandalising great works by Monet, van Gogh and Goya, Winston speaks with environmentalist, conservationist and pro-nuclear activist Michael Shellenberger. They discuss the validity of Just Stop Oil's methods and environmental imperialism at this years United Nations Climate Change Conference. They take a deep dive into Shellenberger's book 'Apocalypse Never', evaluate the environmentalist case for fracking and consider why nuclear will save us all.

Kate Andrews

Is Jeremy Hunt bailing out Bailey?

There is a conundrum at the heart of Jeremy Hunt’s comments leading up to the Autumn Statement. Hunt describes inflation as an ‘evil’ that ‘erodes the pound in your pocket’: uncontroversial. So Autumn Statement, he says, has been designed by his Treasury to ‘help the Bank of England bring down inflation.’ But controlling inflation is the Bank of England’s remit, so any action will be indirect. By tightening fiscal policy, Hunt is lifting pressure off the Bank to keep pushing raising interest rates. This will be by design on the part of the Treasury.

Isabel Hardman

Is Braverman’s French Channel migrant deal a sign of progress?

Is the deal struck between the UK and French governments on policing Channel crossings really going to make a difference? MPs don't seem to think so, with Suella Braverman getting a rather chilly reception from her own side in the Commons this afternoon. The Home Secretary signed the deal this morning, and returned to tell Home Office Questions that this was a 'step change and a step forward'. But she also admitted, after criticism from Tory MPs, that it was important not to 'overplay' what it meant.

James Forsyth

Has the next cold war been put on hold?

The Biden-Xi meeting at the G20 seems to have been relatively productive, and has at least improved the lines of communication between the two superpowers. The Chinese readout has them declaring that the relationship is ‘not what the international community expects from us’. The first in-person meeting between Biden and Xi since Biden became president does seem to have moved US-China relations on from the depths they fell to after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. In a sign of the relative détente, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit China in the New Year. But the aggressive Chinese language about the status of the island is a reminder of how problematic this factor remains to the relationship.

Svitlana Morenets

Ukraine’s huge victory in Kherson

Less than two months ago, Putin declared four occupied regions of Ukraine as part of Russia. Some speculated that Moscow would view any attempt to liberate those territories as equivalent to an attack on Russian soil. Yet today Volodymyr Zelensky visited the recently liberated Kherson, awarded Ukrainian soldiers and watched them raise the country’s flag. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on Zelensky's visit to Kherson and reiterated that it was ‘Russian territory’. Zelensky did what Putin couldn’t manage to do in eight months of Russian control over the city – he faced its residents. Asked where Ukrainian forces might advance next, Zelensky said: ‘Not Moscow… We’re not interested in the territories of another country.

Steerpike

Rishi gets the Budget bubbly in

With just three days to go until the awful Autumn Statement, Westminster is agog to find out just how truly terrible it's going to be. Taxes? Up! Cuts? Aplenty! Growth? Flatlining! So, as we await with morbid fascination to see what the new season of Jeremy Hunt's Fiscal Drag Race has in store for us, what better to drown your sorrows than the latest tin-eared stunt from CCHQ? It seems that the wonder kids over at Tory high command have cooked up a deal with Virgin Wines to give long-suffering party members some liquid respite from their woes. In an email that went out on Friday, activists were invited to claim a free bottle of prosecco worth £12.99 plus '12 delicious wines for JUST £59.88'. Talk about providing for the needy this Christmas.

Ross Clark

Crypto is being hoisted by its own petard

Like Liz Truss, Sam Bankman-Fried will be the stuff of pub quizzes: who lost his entire $16 billion fortune in days? A quick trawl of the internet suggest his only real challenger in losing so much money so quickly was Masayoshi Son, the founder of Softbank, who was estimated to have made a paper loss of $70 billion in the dotcom crash. But he wasn’t completely wiped out, and retained considerable wealth as Softbank rose again. Bankman-Fried, on the other hand, is believed now to be worth pretty much zero following last week’s collapse of the crypto exchange he founded, FTX. At its peak, Bankman-Fried’s stake is estimated to have been worth $26 billion, and it was still worth many billions in the days before its sudden collapse. All this by the age of 30.