Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Why a no confidence motion may help Theresa May

We have got used to a lot of odd things in British politics recently. Many of the usual rules have been suspended: Theresa May has survived losing her majority in an election she called and we've seen the departure of not one, but two Brexit Secretaries. But tonight she will defeated by a massive margin on the central plank of her governing programme. The consequences of this will be unpredictable—which is precisely why the government pulled the vote in December. Things could spiral out of Theresa May’s control very quickly. So far, the government looks out of luck in its attempt to limit the damage.

Steerpike

John Bercow only has eyes for Labour

While much remains uncertain when it comes to how Brexit will play out in the coming days and weeks, it is clear that John Bercow will play a pivotal role. To the dismay of government figures, the Speaker has of late refused to follow parliamentary norms – choosing to ignore precedent just last week when he accepted a Dominic Grieve amendment even though clerks had advised him not to. On Monday, Conservative MP Matt Warman asked the Speaker whether there were any more precedents he planned to change on the coming days. Bercow did not take the question kindly and chastised the executive for questioning his authority – and impartiality.

Robert Peston

Theresa May will lose tonight but she will still cling to her Brexit deal

Theresa May will lose the vote tonight on her Brexit plan, widely seen as the most important vote in Parliament since the early years of the Second World War, and yet nothing of importance may change – or at least not immediately, at least. How can that possibly be – especially since she could well lose by a record-busting and humiliating margin of more than 100 votes? It is because she is very unlikely to acknowledge that her deal is dead, and will instead announce shortly after the defeat that she will have another go at negotiating with EU leaders to amend it so as to make it acceptable to MPs. To be clear this is surmise, though based on conversations with officials and ministers.

Steerpike

Listen: Michael Gove and Nick Robinson’s Today programme scrap

Tensions are running high today in Westminster, as Theresa May's Brexit deal finally comes before the the House of Commons. Those supporting the deal are in for a tricky day, as they prepare themselves for what could be a historic defeat. This may explain why environment secretary Michael Gove was on the defensive this morning, as he went out to bat for the Prime Minister's deal on the airwaves. Less clear though is why he was met by an even more disgruntled Nick Robinson who was interviewing him on the Today programme. After some early skirmishes between the pair, it was Robinson who set the cat among the pigeons by accusing Gove of 'smearing' Tory MPs such as Oliver Letwin, by saying that they wanted to stop Brexit.

Monday

Tom Goodenough

Theresa May survives no confidence vote in the Commons

Theresa May has survived a vote of confidence in the Commons by 325 votes to 306. Tory MPs – as well as the DUP's members – backed the Prime Minister in tonight's crunch vote. The decisive support from the Conservative party meant that the votes of Labour, SNP and Lib Dem MPs were not enough to oust the PM. Theresa May responded to winning the vote by inviting Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street for Brexit talks. But the Labour leader – who earlier said May was leading a 'zombie government' – said he would only enter into discussions if the PM ruled out a no deal Brexit.

James Forsyth

Is John Bercow preparing to pull off another procedural trick?

There has just been another series of pointed exchanges between government backbenchers and the Speaker over procedure. Following the Sunday papers and the Boles plan released earlier today, several Tory MPs sought reassurance on procedure from John Bercow. Bercow was strikingly unwilling to give it. He approvingly quoted Willie Whitelaw’s dictum that bridges are best crossed when you come to them. If Bercow’s intention was to wind up the government frontbench and Tory MPs, he certainly succeeded. When Bercow gave a lengthy reply to Kevin Brennan's point of order about how people who act as the lickspittles of the whips’ don’t get much respect, one minister heckled.

Isabel Hardman

May’s new Brexit pitch: my bad deal is better than no deal

If you're a not particularly impressive leader of a political party preparing a response to any statement given by Theresa May, the easiest phrase that you can lazily reach for is 'nothing has changed'. You know it will apply to anything the Prime Minister says about how she has improved her Brexit deal.  All three main party leaders appeared to conform to those easy predictions this afternoon. Theresa May stood up and tried to convince MPs that she had secured important changes to the deal that meant they should support it tomorrow. Jeremy Corbyn replied that nothing had changed and that there should be a general election, while Ian Blackford argued that the voices of the people were being ignored and that May should extend Article 50.

Isabel Hardman

John Bercow steps up his battle with ministers

John Bercow clearly isn't backing down in his stand-off with ministers. Today he opened a new front in the House of Commons, taking aim at the government for refusing to allow MPs who are pregnant or on maternity leave to have a proxy vote. The issue came up when Harriet Harman made a point of order about her colleague Tulip Siddiq, who has had to postpone the caesarean section for her baby so that she can vote tomorrow. Harman asked the Speaker whether he could give the Hampstead and Kilburn MP a proxy vote, but Bercow replied that this was not something he was able to do himself. He continued by arguing that it was 'essential' for the Commons to maintain its reputation as it is 'starting to take an interest in the modern world' that the matter of proxy votes be resolved.

Katy Balls

Can the Murrison amendment prevent humiliation for May?

In Parliament a glimmer of hope has emerged ahead of the vote on Theresa May's seemingly doomed Brexit deal. It's not that it suddenly has a hope of passing as it is – instead it's that a backbencher amendment could carve a way out of the Brexit deadlock. Usually loyal backbencher Andrew Murrison has tabled an amendment for the withdrawal agreement which sets an expiry date for the backstop for December 31 2021. A time limited backstop is something the EU has rejected but Tory Brexiteers (and the DUP) demand one if they are to support May's deal. Such a change would most likely require the reopening of the withdrawal agreement – something both May and the EU have said they are reluctant to do.

Steerpike

Mel Stride’s picture perfect ‘no deal preparations’

With only one day to go until the vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal, the government has been doing its best to convince wavering MPs that supporting it is the only way to avoid the catastrophic consequences of no-deal Brexit. Which may explain why the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Mel Stride, was snapped today carrying these scary notes on a piece of paper (conveniently sticking out of his folder) as he left a meeting in 10 Downing Street: https://twitter.com/PoliticalPics/status/1084827663146119170 But if Mr Steerpike could offer a word of advice to the government: if you're looking to 'inadvertently' show MPs how bad no deal would be, don't steal your tactics from the comedy TV show The Thick of It.

Steerpike

MP’s best friendship lies lost in the Commons

As the Brexit vote looms closer, the whips are on a hunt for MPs. Not so much to discover how they'll be voting, though, but to find the owner of a lost ring. A message went out to MPs from their whips this morning saying that 'a silver ring with the inscription "forever best friends" has been found in the toilet in the voting lobby'. Mr S wonders what sort of an MP has a 'forever best friend' - and whether the ring was in fact discarded after the forever friendship was shattered by Brexit tensions. There are more than enough candidates for that...

James Forsyth

The EU’s latest effort won’t help May pass her Brexit deal

The letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk ahead of tomorrow’s vote is not the cavalry arriving. It is more a restatement of what has gone before than anything else. If the EU is to make a big play to help Theresa May’s deal pass it will come before a second vote; as one Secretary of State lamented to me last week the EU has already written off this vote. But the letter is a reminder that May hasn’t sold this deal as well as she could. As the letter states, ‘the Withdrawal Agreement is also clear that any new act that the European Union proposes should be added to the Protocol will require the agreement of the United Kingdom in the Joint Committee’.

The Spectator

Where every Tory MP stands on Brexit: the full list

As things stand, it looks inevitable that Theresa May's Brexit deal will be defeated in the House of Commons on Tuesday, but what happens afterwards is the great unknown. While a number of MPs have voiced their opposition to May's deal and no deal, the majority still have not made clear what they would support in its place. And unless there is a parliamentary majority for another option, Britain will leave the EU on 29 March without a deal by default. So what is there a majority for in the Commons? In an attempt to find out, Coffee House has compiled the public Brexit position of every single Tory MP. Their views have been split into five different categories: supporting May's deal, no deal, a second referendum, Norway, or 'Undeclared’.

Steerpike

Theresa May’s Welsh assembly memory loss

Theresa May is making a last ditch attempt this morning to convince MPs to back her Brexit deal when it's finally put to a vote tomorrow evening. To do this, the Prime Minister will cite the 1997 referendum on creating the Welsh assembly. In that vote, Yes won by 0.3 percent, on a turnout of just over 50 percent – yet it was still enacted: 'That result was accepted by both sides, and the popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned.' Alas, Mr S suspects it's not the best example for May to go on. After that vote, the Tories argued against the creation of the assembly and May actually voted against it. Some Tories even argued for another vote on the issue.

Sunday

Nikki Da Costa

The threat of a Brexit coup in Parliament is real – and terrifying

Today’s Sunday Times splash – about a ‘coup’ being plotted by Tory rebels to take over Brexit – looks and feels like it was dreamed up in No. 10. It wasn’t and the story shouldn’t be dismissed because of that. The Speaker’s actions last week have changed the calculations: something previously judged procedurally impossible (for rebels to call the shots in parliament) is now a genuine risk. In my view, it risks the very stability of the government. The story so far: that Dominic Grieve and Oliver Letwin are seeking a way to seize control of business in the Commons, so that backbench motions take precedence over government motions. This matters because, until last week, a whole load of options were unthinkable.

Robert Peston

Theresa May says it would be ‘catastrophic’ to cancel Brexit. Is she right?

The prime minister will tomorrow make a powerful speech – in the heart of Brexit UK, Stoke on Trent – that MPs ‘all have a duty to implement the result of the referendum’, because failure to do so would wreak ‘catastrophic harm’ on ‘people's faith in the democratic process and their politicians’. Coming as it does from the most important and powerful elected politician in the UK, this dramatic claim is worthy of careful consideration. What is it based upon? Well it is founded on the premise, in her words, that ‘on the rare occasions when Parliament puts a question to the British people directly we have always understood that their response carries a profound significance’.

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows round-up: Corbyn promises a no confidence motion ‘soon’

Jeremy Corbyn: Labour will table vote of no confidence motion ‘soon’ The week ahead promises to be full of drama, with the long awaited ‘meaningful vote’ on Theresa May's Brexit deal scheduled to take place on Tuesday. The current prognosis does not look good for the Prime Minister, who is still struggling to muster adequate support. This morning, the Leader of the Opposition sat down with Andrew Marr to discuss what course of action he would be taking: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1084400384360177664 AM: If [May] does lose that vote, do you immediately put down a vote of no confidence in the government? JC: We will table a motion of no confidence in the government at a time of our choosing. But it’s going to be soon, don’t worry about it.

Saturday

Robert Peston

Theresa May’s single most important strategic mistake

Before the big vote on Tuesday night, the EU's 27 government heads will provide greater reassurances - probably in the form of a collective letter to Theresa May, and within the mandate confirmed at the last EU Council - that the controversial Northern Ireland backstop will not and cannot be forever. What does that mean? Well for those MPs agonising about whether or not to support the PM's Brexit plan, and who think the word of political leaders counts for something, a few votes may move in Theresa May's direction. And maybe, in the words of one senior British minister, May will be able to frame the letter as being both 'substantive' and 'legally' significant.

James Forsyth

What will be May’s Plan B?

The Cabinet aren’t even waiting for the meaningful vote to be lost to start discussing Plan Bs. As I say in The Sun this morning, multiple ministers are expecting a major row when Cabinet meets on Tuesday morning—ahead of the meaningful vote. The row will be about what to do once the government has lost. One faction in the Cabinet believes that, in the words of one Secretary of State, ‘the only realistic route to go down is to force it into the EU’s hands’. This would involve devising a motion that made clear under what conditions parliament would back the deal. Then saying to the EU, if you want to avoid no deal this is what we need to address.

Steerpike

Revealed: Philip Hammond’s secret Project Fear meetings

It's no secret in Westminster that Philip Hammond’s idea of the best Brexit possible is one that keeps Britain close to the EU. The Chancellor spent the last year issuing dire prophecies about the impact of a hard Brexit and his Treasury forecasts have become infamous for spelling out the doom and gloom of no deal. But are Hammond’s Project Fear warnings catching on? Mr Steerpike can reveal, after the Treasury released documents under the Freedom of Information Act, that Hammond met with several business bigwigs last year, only for them to issue similarly dire Brexit assessments shortly afterwards.