World

Tuesday

Prue Leith

Madagascar offers peace – and lemurs – in abundance

Madagascar, by rights, should be rich and flourishing. It has everything: natural resources, a heavenly climate, picture-book scenery, tropical weather, friendly people. But it is one of the poorest countries in the world – on account of centuries of exploitation, first by the French, and latterly by corrupt elites. With luck, all that is about to change. If the new regime (which came to power in October when a student-led revolution sent the last one packing) can resist the lure of looting, it could just succeed. No jet skis, no music, no bars. Maybe a lone fisherman or a sailboat in the distance As yet the spacious main square of

Adam Weinstein

The illusion of Iranian regime change

Supporters of regime change in Iran have long argued that if the United States and Israel weakened the country’s rulers then the Iranian people would finish the job. But the likely outcome is instead a wounded regime, one that emerges more paranoid, more repressive, and more convinced that only force ensures its survival. Iran has experienced mass protests every two to three years for more than a decade. What often begins as economic unrest frequently evolves into broader anti-regime demonstrations, drawing thousands of Iranians into the streets. People outside the country see these protests and believe they could ultimately topple the government. Such arguments come from parts of the Iranian

Francis Pike

Kim Jong-un’s sister or daughter? Only one can survive…

As a birthday treat, a good father might take his ten-year-old daughter to the ballet or a Disney movie. Three years ago, North Korea’s ruling dictator Kim Jong-un (“Brilliant Comrade”) took his ten-year-old daughter Kim Ju-ae to the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. It was her first public outing. Subsequent kiddie treats have included visits to the mausoleum that houses the bodies of her grandfather, Kim Jong-il (“the Dear Leader”), and great-grandfather, Kim Il-sung (“the Great Leader”). She also got to stand at military parades, inspect nuclear facilities and make an official visit to Beijing. In the North Korean media, Kim Ju-ae is referred to as the Supreme Leader’s

Monday

Eliot Wilson

Should NATO help America defend the Strait of Hormuz?

As soon as Operation Epic Fury, America’s latest campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran, got underway on the last day of February, political, military and economic minds around the world should have turned their attention to the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway provided the only shipping route from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the open seas beyond. That has long made the strait the dagger Iran holds at the throat of the world. At its narrowest, it is less than 25 miles across, and Iran controls the northern shore; to the south is the Musandam Peninsula, shared by the United Arab Emirates and an exclave

NATO STRAIT
Cockburn

Iran’s first gayatollah?

Something queer’s afoot in the Islamic Republic. As Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new Supreme Leader last week, reports emerged that his own father, the late ayatollah Ali Khamenei, didn’t want him to take power and even went as far as making this explicit in his will, according to the New York Post. Now, the Post reveals that his father’s qualms were over Mojtaba’s alleged sexual attraction to men.  When President Trump was briefed that Mojtaba may be gay, he “couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud” while others in the room joined in his reaction, sources close to the intelligence community and the White House told the Post. It’s an odd turn of events when the repressive theocracy is the

Friday

Jawad Iqbal

Is Keir Starmer really, truly sorry about Peter Mandelson?

Sir Keir Starmer wants everyone to know how sorry, really sorry, he is for giving Lord Mandelson the job of Ambassador to the United States. On a visit to Belfast yesterday, the British Prime Minister issued his latest and perhaps most abject mea culpa so far. It came just hours after the publication of embarrassing government documents detailing the process (or more accurately, the lack of one) that existed when it came to appointing the now disgraced peer to the plum diplomatic role in Washington. Sir Keir told reporters:   The release of the information shows what was known. That led to further questions being asked…But that doesn’t take away

mandelson
hegseth signalgate walt
Freddy Gray

What Signalgate tells us about Iran

Remember Signalgate? It was quite the story, and worth revisiting now in light of Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and its dire implications for the global economy.  In March last year, Donald Trump’s then National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, somehow added Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of the Atlantic, to a Signal messaging group for senior government officials to discuss top secret military action against the Houthis in Yemen. The group included the Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller,

Atbin Moayedi

How the Islamic Republic tried – and failed – to destroy Iranian culture

The Islamic Republic in Iran is not only at war with the United States and Israel. For years, the country’s government has been waging war on Iranian culture. Music, poetry, storytelling, dogs, dancing, singing, art, dice and card games, romance, tolerance and the honoring of women are central to Persian culture and its ancient history. Yet under the Islamic Republic, these cherished expressions are banned or stigmatized, especially when pursued by women. The departure of Iran’s enlightened and educated from the country they love is one of the most poignant brain drains in history In the dark, dystopian times immediately following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, couples holding hands or

Thursday

Christopher Rufo

The right’s Israel fracture

As the joint American-Israeli military campaign in Iran continues, President Trump’s coalition is starting to exhibit some cracks. The war in Iran has emerged as a proxy battle over a broader, long-simmering conflict within the right about Israel. And the fight over Israel is, in some important ways, a proxy battle about Jews in general. Big picture, what we’re seeing now is that the traditional divisions on the right between paleoconservatives and neoconservatives, between hawks and doves, are being reshaped into a battle over Israel specifically. It’s a very difficult subject; this issue has become highly emotional and personal for those on both sides, and even in my world, it’s

Maurizio Geri

The Iran war has exposed the world’s maritime chokepoint

The war with Iran is exposing a vulnerability at the heart of the global gas market: the extraordinary concentration of liquefied natural gas supply in the Persian Gulf. Qatar alone accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG exports, almost all of it passing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has illustrated how easily a single maritime chokepoint could interrupt a significant share of the world’s gas trade. Even if the war ends soon, the vulnerability it has exposed will not disappear President Donald Trump has suggested the conflict may soon end, describing the campaign as largely achieved and possibly over “very soon.” The Gulf monarchies also appear eager for a quick

Freddy Gray

‘We don’t know what’s going on or why we’re doing this’: how Trump’s Iran gamble backfired

“Donald Trump is a complicated person with simple ideas,” said Kellyanne Conway, the former White House senior counselor. “Way too many politicians are the exact opposite.” It’s a good way of understanding the 45th and 47th President and his extraordinary success. His turbulent personality causes mayhem, yet his political aims have remained constant, straightforward and popular. Decades ago, as a New York tycoon with a keen eye on international affairs, he identified three priorities for America: tackle the nation’s trade imbalances, force NATO allies to spend more on defense, and destroy terrorists. When it comes to realizing those simple ideas, however, his more complex attributes emerge. Trump believes in mixing

Wednesday

Terry Barnes

Australia finally did right by Iran’s brave women’s soccer players

In 1989, as tanks rolled into central Beijing to crush the pro-democracy protest in Tiananmen Square, Australia’s then prime minister, Bob Hawke, spontaneously offered asylum to all Chinese citizens who happened to be in Australia. Thousands took up his offer and made lasting contributions to the country that gave them shelter. Last Tuesday, the women showed personal courage by taking a silent but very public stand against a regime that stops at nothing to punish open disloyalty On Tuesday, Hawke’s successor, Anthony Albanese, granted five women of Iran’s national soccer team asylum, and offered it to all those in the team’s party. Unlike Hawke, however, Albanese did the right thing

australia iran
Gavin Mortimer

Revenge of the cheese-eating surrender monkeys

French President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating rose by six points last week. It will likely continue to climb following his visit to the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier on Monday. The pride of the French navy recently arrived in the eastern Mediterranean to protect Cyprus, and Macron was in his element as he strode across the deck of the carrier. A photograph of the occasion appeared in the New York Times underneath the headline: “France Is Sending a Large Naval Force to the Middle East.” The last time there was a great conflagration in the Middle East, France was very much on the sidelines Macron was helicoptered onto the Charles

Mani Basharzad

Why the Venezuela model would be a disaster for Iran

What next for Iran? Donald Trump appears to have a plan: the Venezuela model. The US president has hinted that, just as with the South American nation, he wants to try working with elements inside the existing regime, rather than backing exiled opposition figures. The biggest massacres in Iran’s recent history happened under so-called reformers “We have a formula, Venezuela, smart country,” he said this week. “We’ve taken out 100 million barrels of oil which is now in Houston…being taken care of and made so beautiful in refineries.” But if Trump really is planning on copying his playbook for Venezuela in Iran, he should be warned: it will be a

Tuesday

Alexander Kolyandr

The Iran war is just what Putin’s depleted coffers need

Of all the parties watching the chaos in the Middle East unfold, one should be rubbing its hands together with particular satisfaction. Russia has not fired a shot in this conflict, lost no allies it cannot afford to lose and has so far gained rather a lot, with more to come. A cynic might call it the perfect war for Vladimir Putin. Moscow’s public reaction has been characteristically theatrical. The Foreign Ministry denounced American and Israeli actions as a “reckless step” and a “dangerous adventure.” Things have gone no further. There has been no announcement of political or military support for Iran from the Kremlin – nor is there likely

putin
Owen Matthews

Putin is enjoying the Iran war

After Iran unleashed a torrent of missiles against its neighbors – including those with whom it had enjoyed friendly relations such as Turkey and Azerbaijan – few regional leaders are in the mood to congratulate the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Few, but not none. “At a time when Iran is confronting armed aggression, your work in this high office will undoubtedly require great courage and dedication,” wrote Vladimir Putin in an official message of congratulation to Khamenei Junior. “I am confident that you will honorably continue your father’s legacy and unite the Iranian people in the face of these severe trials.” Putin was also at pains to “reaffirm our

Scott McConnell

I spent 25 years fighting neocons. Then Trump became one

Like everyone, I’m glued to the news coming out of Iran. I’m experiencing some depression, as one might, upon realizing that much of what one has worked on for 25 years has suddenly gone up in smoke, destroyed when Donald Trump discovered he was pretty much a neocon after all. Like everyone else, I have no idea what will happen in Iran, whether Trump’s bombing and perhaps breaking apart a very unpopular regime will lead to something better, or just chaos, a failed state spitting out a cohort of embittered men. But one can’t help but acknowledge the American right really likes bombing foreign countries, despite what had seemed an

neocon
Jacob Shapiro

El Mencho is dead. What’s next for Mexico?

For as long as there has been a Mexico, there have been cartels. Geography is not always destiny, but in Mexico’s case it has been stubbornly close. For centuries, states have tried to impose order on Mexico’s northern frontier. None have succeeded. Power in Mesoamerica always radiated outward from the Valley of Mexico. The Aztecs built their empire there. The Spanish consolidated their rule there. The modern Mexican state governs from there. To the north lies a harsher landscape – arid, mountainous, thinly populated and historically resistant to centralized control. Deserts and mountains provide space. Space creates autonomy. Autonomy, in weakly governed regions, creates opportunity for dissent, for rebellion, for

el mencho

Monday

Constantin Eckner

Merz is feeling the pressure of Germany’s state elections

Amid growing uncertainty caused by the US-Israel offensive against Iran and surging gas prices, Germany had its first major election of the year yesterday, with the new state parliament of Baden-Württemberg elected. Forecasts indicate that the Greens, who have been governing the state for the past 15 years, will remain in control of the premier office in Stuttgart, while the Christian Democrats (the CDU) have come in as a close second. Over the past couple of months, it appeared as if the Christian Democrats, with their leading candidate Manuel Hagel, could win the election. But negative vibes from Berlin impacted Hagel’s campaign, as promised reforms continue to stall and Friedrich

state germany
Une bouteille de beaujoulais nouveau à côté d'un repas McDonald's, France, 1994. (Photo by Robert DEYRAIL/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)
Gavin Mortimer

European culture is being Americanized

Did Mariah Carey mime or not when she headlined the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Milan? That was the main takeaway from last month’s jamboree. Organizers have since suggested that the US singer did indeed lip-sync to Domenico Modugno’s “Nel Blu, dipinto di Blu” and the song that followed, her very own, “Nothing is Impossible.” “The technical, logistical and organizational complexities of an Olympic ceremony are not comparable to a live performance by a single artist,” said a spokesperson for the organizing committee.    Was there also a linguistic complexity in the decision? Perhaps Carey didn’t feel confident singing live in Italian in front of 75,000 spectators in the San Siro Stadium, plus the 9.2 million Italians watching the ceremony on television. Nevertheless, Maria Laura Iascone of the organizing committee called Carey’s performance “exceptional,” adding that