J.D. Vance didn’t call Benjamin Netanyahu out by name, but in sternly reprimanding the “Cabinet of the Israeli government” from the White House podium on Thursday, he sent Israel and its Prime Minister a very clear and ominously familiar message. In demanding more respect, raising the threat of severe consequences and ordering the country to get in line, the Vice President was echoing the public fight he picked with another world leader and one-time US ally: Volodymyr Zelensky.
And just like that fiery chastisement last February, Vance went further than any other Trump Cabinet member has to date in his criticism. He was irritated with Israeli Cabinet members including Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich who have publicly attacked President Trump’s proto-peace deal. They say it will hand billions of dollars to Tehran and fail to guarantee Israeli security. Ben-Gvir says that Israel is not bound by it.
Vance, to the world’s press, declared: “What I will say, and this does bother me, is that you’ve seen people within Bibi’s cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal and in some ways very personally attacked the President of the United States and I guess my message to them would be two-fold.
“Number one Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time and he happens to be head of state of the world’s superpower. If I was in the Cabinet of the Israeli government I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire word.
“And the second message I would give to those Cabinet members, Bibi to his credit has not gone down this path, but to some of these cabinet members in Israel who are attacking the president of the United States, the other thing that I would say is that over the last three months two thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars.”
The message was clear: Netanayahu must get his government in line – or else. Just look at what happened to Ukraine, went unsaid but tacitly understood. Bibi was damned by the faintest of praise.
The relationship between America and Ukraine was already falling apart by the time of the infamous White House clash last year. When Zelensky demurred on negotiating with Russia, Vance warned that not engaging with Trump’s peace plan for the region would result in “the destruction of your country.” He tore a strip off Zelensky for being insolent, “Mr President, with respect, I think it’s disrespectful for you to come into the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.
“Have you said ‘thank you’ once this entire meeting?” he asked. “Offer some words of appreciation for the United States of America and the president who’s trying to save your country.”
After that bruising encounter, the Trump administration axed military aid to Ukraine and stopped intelligence sharing. Ukraine was forced to go cap in hand to European countries and to become an arms exporter to make up the revenue shortfall. A year later, that strategy appears, at least, to have been successful. Europe has provided €160 million funding since Trump cut US aid and Zelensky has signed numerous contracts to export Ukrainian arms to other countries.
Teflon Trump, the master of the scapegoat, will have the choice of two easy victims to pin the blame on if his plan veers off the rails
But Israel – as Vance points out – has fewer friends than Ukraine. And if the relationship with the one country that supports it fractures further, as appears entirely possible if not likely, Israel will be on its own against the world. The Jewish state will have to fund and arm itself. Currently it receives $3.8 billion dollars of military aid from America every year – free money to spend on US arms. That deal is up in 2028 and is currently being renegotiated.
It is worth noting that Vance’s optimism over a peace deal in Ukraine hasn’t fared as well as Zelensky’s skepticism. Last August, the VP said that he believed the US could be within touching distance of a peace deal. Trump said a deal could be “weeks away.” Yet a Russian barrage on Kyiv on Monday killed 11 people and set the historic Dormition Cathedral alight. In response, Ukraine unleashed possibly its largest ever drone attack on Moscow, targeting oil infrastructure and turning the sky black.
Trump’s proposed peace deal with Iran may be every bit as fantastical as the deal he proposed between Ukraine and Iran. But, unlike Zelensky, Netanyahu has no other choice – he really doesn’t have the cards. And if he’s not careful, Trump will maneuver him and Israel into a position whereby they take the blame for his potentially wildly flawed plan. Teflon Trump, the master of the scapegoat, will have the choice of two easy victims to pin the blame on if his plan veers off the rails: Israel – or the face of the Iran deal: his Vice President (as Trump has joked about doing).
Netanyahu himself might make the decision easier for Trump. He has not publicly criticized the deal and yesterday too he was tepid. He said that “additional challenges lie ahead of us,” requiring “calmness, a firm stance on our security interests, and at the same time, maintaining the important connection with our American friends.” But he also vowed that Israel would maintain “the security zone in southern Lebanon” and not withdraw as Iran has demanded. If restoring that security means renewed hostilities with Hezbollah and Iran walks away from the deal, then Trump may have his scapegoat.
The war of words, in fact, looks likely to only intensify as the Israeli elections approach in October. Any semblance of collective Cabinet responsibility will completely evaporate as ministers choose words that resonate with the electorate rather than the Prime Minister – who will have a fight to keep his job in any event – or with the US President, as they vie to stake out their own individual positions on the deal. National security is the first, second and third priority of Israeli voters. Vance’s appeal for calm will almost certainly fall on deaf ears.
In using language from the White House podium to castigate Israel that is familiar to the world of MAGA politics, Vance is positioning himself back towards the center of the America First movement. He is edging slowly towards the anti-Israel positions staked out by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Joe Kent. Could being the man to bring Israel to book redeem him in their eyes after his stock plummeted for supporting the war? They and their supporters might back him in the 2028 presidential race even if traditional Republican donors don’t.
Casting Israel as the new truculent ally that isn’t grateful enough and should be defunded could be Vance’s way back into the 2028 fight. But while the relationship hasn’t yet deteriorated quite as disastrously as it did with Ukraine, the once solid alliance certainly looks to be on the slide. With a potentially unworkable deal on the table, the urge for recrimination and finger pointing will be strong. And with elections capturing minds in both countries invective will be incentivized.
Vance’s words are unlikely to be the last on the matter, only the sternest so far, and potentially the start of something much more bitter. It’s all music to the ears of the Iranian regime that will consider the war a victory if it leads to a permanent fracture of US-Israel relationship.
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