Arieh Kovler

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration, Israelis and Americans have been living in two parallel worlds. Israel’s began with the hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza, which has seen Israeli captives finally released by Hamas after nearly 500 days. Israelis have witnessed the grotesque spectacle that Hamas made of the hostages, forcing them to perform in front of screaming crowds before being bundled into Red Cross vehicles, and then the joy of those same hostages reuniting with their families and beginning to share their stories. All the while, Donald Trump and his special envoy Steve Witkoff have urged Israel and Hamas to keep the ceasefire and continue negotiations to free all the hostages.  What deal can Israel and Hamas possibly agree to now that satisfies Trump's demands?

Early September, days after the gruesome discovery of six murdered Israeli hostages in a tunnel in Gaza, a dramatic scoop appeared in Bild. The German newspaper had obtained a secret internal Hamas document, supposedly obtained from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s personal computer, that revealed Hamas’s hostage negotiation strategy. The document claimed that Hamas was deliberately exploiting the divisions in Israeli society, manipulating the families of the hostages to help blame Benjamin Netanyahu’s government for not making a deal.

If the leaks and briefings are to be believed, Israel is getting ready to end its war in Lebanon. With the US pushing hard, and after a successful military campaign, reports say that Israeli leaders are looking to make a deal. Lebanese Hezbollah joined Hama’s war against Israel on 8 October, 2023; around 100,000 Israeli civilians have evacuated the border area. Almost immediately after Israeli troops moved into the Gaza Strip, determined to oust Hamas and release the hostages captured on 7 October, there were negotiations, brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the USA, to try and reach some kind of deal that would free the hostages and end the war. Apart from a brief ceasefire in December, that deal is still being unsuccessfully negotiated today.

The war that neither side wanted began this week in earnest. After last week’s exploding pagers and walkie-talkies reportedly injured 1,500 members of Hezbollah’s military forces, the Israeli Air Force began a broad campaign of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, assassinating several senior leaders of the group while targeting long-range missiles hidden in warehouses and the roofs of private residences. Hezbollah in turn fired long-range missiles for the first time, including a half-tonne monster that targeted the Tel Aviv region.  However, just days into the higher-intensity conflict, suddenly the media this morning was full of reports of an imminent ceasefire. What happened? This most recent round of conflict began on 8 October last year.

Nearly ten months after Israel’s worst day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made history far away in Washington DC when he became the first world leader to address Congress four times. Even Winston Churchill only managed three. The last time Netanyahu spoke to Congress was in March 2015, as the Obama administration was finalising the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the ‘Iran Deal’. Netanyahu arranged the session with House Speaker John Boehner against Obama’s wishes, and made a charged and politicised speech urging Congress to reject the deal. The speech was seen as colluding with the Republicans to meddle in US domestic politics, and the damage it caused to the Israeli government’s relationship with the Democratic party hasn’t fully healed even today.

In the middle of a war, Israel’s government is wobbling. Not because of the policy failures that led to the country’s worst disaster ever when Hamas invaded on October 7, 2023; not because of the slow progress of the war, its high human cost or its failure to recover the hostages; not even because of the looming threat of a major escalation in northern Israel and Lebanon. No, the threat to the stability of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition comes from within, after the Supreme Court ruled that the government must start drafting Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jewish) men into the Israel Defence Forces.

On 7 April, six months after the October massacres in southern Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the public that the country was just ‘one step away from victory’ in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Nearly two months later, Israel hasn’t taken that step yet. The war continues. No more hostages have been released alive. Hamas rockets still fall inside Israel, including a barrage earlier this week that rained down on the suburbs of Tel Aviv. The two leaders of Israel’s war effort haven’t spoken to each other for a fortnight In the meantime, international public opinion has hardened against Israel. Some countries, like Colombia, have broken diplomatic relations. Turkey has announced a trade embargo.