Donald Trump’s 80th birthday is this weekend, and what better present for a struggling octogenarian Commander-in-Chief than a peace deal with Iran, signed if not quite yet sealed and delivered.
There is, I’m told, some late scrambling over “semantics” in the so-called “memorandum of understanding” between America and Iran, and lingering issues over the language concerning the “nuclear dust” – i.e., Iran’s enriched uranium. But the rest is all but agreed. J.D. Vance could fly to Europe to sign a deal tomorrow – or if not it will be Trump as he attends the G7 in Evian near the Swiss Alps on Monday.
Trump really wanted to stage a peace photo-op with Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei but had to be told that would not be possible. Nobody outside a very small circle of Iranian officials seems to know if Mojtaba is able to walk or talk or is actually alive. And even if he were able, he would hardly shake hands with the man who four months ago ordered the strikes that killed his father, wife, son, daughter, niece and grandchild.
I understand the American delegation, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were slow to grasp this point. But the memorandum of understanding progressed nonetheless. The markets are already responding positively to the news, but there are bound to be more bumps along the way. A memorandum is not a peace treaty, and nobody outside Iran can be quite sure that the Iranian regime, such as it still is, will be able to control the piratical forces who now threaten the Strait of Hormuz.
For Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the financial universe, the chief worry is that the pain from the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz is very “in the post,” as they say. Oil prices are unlikely to tumble too dramatically, since many nations will be frantically trying to restock their petroleum reserves. The negative economic consequences of this war could be felt for years to come.
On Sunday, Trump will enjoy basking in his reflected glory as a “peacemaker” of the war he started, as he enjoys watching men beat each other up in the special UFC Freedom 250 cage fight on the White House lawn. The king’s birthday is now America’s special day, too. And then he hopes to fly to France, on a roll, and try to end the other war in Ukraine, too.
Still, it’s been a deeply confusing week for anybody trying to keep up with the Iran news. On Monday, Israel and Iran were exchanging missiles, which appeared to be derailing the peace process. Then, that evening, after attending an NBA finals in which he appeared ever so briefly to fall asleep, Trump told reporters that a peace deal was imminent. And then, on Tuesday, Trump abruptly announced “VERY HARD” retaliatory strikes against the Iranians after an American Apache helicopter was struck down by a Shahed drone.
The US duly attacked Iranian military sites on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Iran returned fire early Thursday by launching missiles and drones at Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Trump then escalated his rhetoric even further by vowing to take Kharg Island and seize control of Iranian oil and gas production. Then, by Thursday night, the President announced that peace was back on the agenda.
In fact, it seems that all parties involved in the negotiations, including the Iranians, now understand that Trump’s bombastic threats are largely intended for his domestic audience, so that he can sell a sense of victory to his public. The Iranians, for their part, will do the same. War is peace, peace is war, and we are all living through a new phase of post-truth diplomacy. Happy birthday, Mr. President!
This article originally appeared in Freddy Gray’s Americano newsletter, which you can subscribe to here.
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