It is my solemn duty to report that, as ever in Trumpworld, the news zone has flooded and we are paddling through a reality-bending time loop.
Last night, the government reapplied tariffs on more than 80 countries, on this occasion using dubious concerns about “forced labour” to justify the charges on Britain, the EU, Australia and elsewhere.
Tonight, the President will attend the rearranged White House Correspondents’ Dinner, three months after the last one was canceled following another assassination attempt. The dinner will be held at the Waldorf Astoria, DC, which used to be the Trump International Hotel. The guest list and security will be tighter this time, and Donald should have a chance to make some good jokes. After returning to Butler, Pennsylvania in October 2024 for a rally at the site where, three months earlier, he’d been shot through the ear, he opened with: “As I was saying” – which was truly funny. Tonight, he’ll almost certainly point out that, even though it’s a lovely venue (he made it so), the event really ought to be held in the big, beautiful White House ballroom he’s building.
The increased involvement of the Houthis may well end up triggering a quick and more united western military response
On top of that, and countless other massive stories, Trump may this weekend announce his third major escalation in the war on Iran – the first having been the bombing of the nuclear sites last June, the second being Operation Epic Fury. He’s been teasing – as if it were a fun surprise – a new “massive attack” against the recalcitrant Iranians. “Bigger than ever before,” he said this week. “I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it.” Hawkish pundits have duly been talking excitedly about which targets might be struck, and whether ground troops might finally be deployed.
The conflict is, in fact, already escalating. The US has fired missiles at targets in Iran for 13 nights in a row, in response to the latest wave of Iranian drone-and-bomb strikes on Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar. The Memorandum of Understanding – the alleged peace deal between the US and Iran – has become all but redundant, and oil prices hit $100 for the first time since May. That’s partly because the Yemeni Houthis – up to now, the Iranian-backed dog that hasn’t yet really barked in the hostilities – have just targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, thus threatening to cause another maritime crisis on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.
The increased involvement of the Houthis, and the spreading economic damage, may well end up triggering a quick and more united western military response. Britain and others have in recent years been eager to support US-led bombing campaigns in Yemen. In January 2024, when Joe Biden was in power, a broad coalition of nations took part in Operation Poseidon Archer, a series of missions against Houthi targets, designed to protect shipping routes into the Gulf of Aden. And early into the second Trump administration, in March and May last year, US Central Command carried out Operation Rough Rider (remember Signalgate?) with a little help from the Royal Air Force. Now, the United Kingdom has a new Prime Minister, a new Defence Secretary, and a new keenness to reset the relationship with Washington after a painful few months.
It seems possible, then, that the latest “massive attack” will begin, not with a US land grab on Kharg Island, but a more joint western-and-Gulf States effort closer to, and in support of, Saudi Arabia, with whom Trump just struck a surprising nuclear deal. The mission could be trumpeted as a sort of bellicose kumbaya moment for the fraying pro-western alliance. Trump may even, er, generously rescind the new tariffs he’s just imposed on the allies who’ve been willing to help. Quite how all that goes on to affect the Iran situation remains to be seen, but round and round we go.
This article originally appeared in Freddy Gray’s Americano newsletter, which you can subscribe to here.
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