Shiraz Maher

King Abdullah opened an emergency session of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Saudi Arabia today to address ongoing instability in the Middle East. Syria is high on their list of priorities, with other member states already voting to suspend its membership of the OIC until Bashar al-Assad gives up power. The OIC is a famously ineffectual institution but there is significant posturing taking place behind the scenes. Saudi Arabia had only hosted the OIC once since its inception in 1969 until King Abdullah took power in 2005. Since then, at his request, it has hosted it a further two times. This chimes with Abdullah’s plans to project himself as the region’s leading statesman, particularly now that all his competitor grotesques are gone.

The confrontation between military brass and Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt came much sooner than expected. Mohammed Mursi has effectively sacked the head of the armed forces, Field Marshal Mohamad Hussein Tantawi, and Chief of Staff Sami Annan, in the hope of asserting his authority. Relations between the army and president have been strained for months because the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces enacted a number of measures to preserve their influence over Egyptian politics. Tantawi ensured, for example, that the SCAF had control over the drafting of Egypt’s new constitution and also appointed himself as Minister of Defence. This was widely seen as a pre-emptive move to guard against an Islamist takeover. Mursi has outmanoeuvred the army on all this.

This is the end of diplomacy in Syria. Kofi Annan announced yesterday that he will step down as international peace envoy for Syria at the end of this month, highlighting the impotence of United Nations efforts in the country. This effectively closes the main diplomatic avenue by which Western powers have been able to raise their concerns with the regime, signalling the success of Russian and Chinese obstructionism. Since Annan embarked on his mission in February, Russia and China have used their veto powers in the UN Security Council on three separate occasions to thwart draft proposals put forward by Western and Arab governments to pressure the Assad regime.

Keep an eye on Saudi Arabia’s newly appointed spymaster, Prince Bandar bin Sultan. After a long stint in Washington where he served as ambassador for 22 years, the prince was recalled to Riyadh in 2005 and then largely sank from public view. Reinstated to frontline politics last month, both King Abdullah and Barak Obama are investing their hopes in Prince Bandar to achieve mutual Saudi-American interests in response to ongoing unrest in the Middle East. Known for his flamboyant and maverick approach to politics, he has a unique opportunity to secure the vital interests of Saudi and its western allies. Perhaps Saudi Arabia’s most skilled political operator, Bandar has a reputation for getting things done.

Mitt Romney arrives in Poland today on the third and final leg of a foreign tour that has already taken him to London and Israel. While he may not have the obvious charm of Obama, predictions of his campaign being derailed by this foreign tour misunderstand Romney’s strategy. Foreign pundits are perennially guilty of ascribing too much importance to the foreign trips of prospective presidential candidates from the United States. When Obama visited Europe, the Middle East, and Afghanistan in the run up to the 2008 election – to mostly fawning press coverage – he only enjoyed a short-lived boost in the polls over his Republican candidate. His lead grew to nine points and then dropped to just one within days.

Revolutions don’t succeed until the capital starts wavering. Bashar al-Assad knows this and has, so far, managed to assert his authority over Damascus and Syria’s second city, Aleppo. That much was true until earlier this week when rebels launched a massive assault on both cities, coinciding with the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Buoyed by a suicide bombing which killed four members of Assad’s inner circle last week, we are now into the heaviest period of fighting inside Syria’s main cities. Assad has managed to maintain some calm in Damascus, but parts of Aleppo have now fallen into rebel control. Khaled Habous, head of the Damascus military council of the Free Syrian Army, struck a bullish tone about the FSA's prospects in a recent interview.

The war with Iran has already been raging for many months. So far, Western powers have largely confined themselves to covert operations designed to thwart Tehran’s nuclear aspirations. However, the bombing of a bus carrying Israeli tourists in Bulgaria on Wednesday marks a dramatic escalation in hostilities. In the past, western intelligence agencies have assassinated and kidnapped Iranian nuclear scientists, at one stage picking off a different target every few months. Not only did this hinder Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, but it was also deeply embarrassing to the regime because of the sophistication with which attacks were being conducted right under its nose.

Hillary Clinton is holding talks in Israel today after a turbulent weekend in Egypt, ending a diplomatically fraught trip with little obvious benefit. Officially, Clinton was there to open the American consulate in Alexandria after it closed in 1993 due to budget cutbacks, but the subtext was to manage the conflicting aspects of America’s strategic interests in the country. Clinton met with Mohammed Mursi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood who is now Egypt’s new President, assuring him of the ‘full authority’ of his office. This was a subtle endorsement at a time when Mursi finds himself locked in tug-of-war with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces for power. The latter has so far prevented him from forming a civilian government or convening parliament.

It’s hard to know how the conflict in Syria could be classed as anything other than a civil war. Yesterday, the International Committee of the Red Cross finally agreed and branded it such. Their announcement follows the Tremseh massacre last week and some of the heaviest fighting in Damascus since the conflict began – a development invested with huge significance because of the premium Assad has placed on maintaining calm in the capital. It all reflects the gains being made by the Free Syrian Army. So far, the Red Cross has only regarded Homs, Hama, and Idlib as active war zones but this overlooks gains being made by the FSA elsewhere.

There was an air of inevitability about yesterday’s massacre in the Syrian village of Tremseh which left 200 civilians dead. Observers of the Syrian uprising could foretell this grim event after Bashar al-Assad suffered two significant diplomatic setbacks over the last week. First, one of Assad’s closest friends and the highest ranking Sunni member of his government, General Manaf Tlass, fled to Turkey last week. News of his defection roared through Damascus. He was followed by Nawaf al-Fares, a senior member of the Baath party and accomplished diplomat who has served both Assad père and fils, who announced his defection on Wednesday. The Tremseh massacre follows a similar incident in Houla just seven weeks ago.

Have you heard about Pakistan’s contribution to last week’s discovery of the Higgs Boson? No, thought not. Remarkably, the reason you probably won’t have is because Pakistan doesn’t want you to. Dr Abdus Salam, a theoretical physicist, carried out pioneering work in the 1960s to suggest the existence of a hypothetical particle after creating a grand unification theory for weak forces and electromagnetic fields. He won the Nobel Prize in 1979 for his efforts, the only Pakistani to have ever received the honour. Yet, his name is largely airbrushed from textbooks in Pakistan and is rarely mentioned in public debate.