Shiraz Maher

How soon the revolutionaries forget. You only need a sketchy knowledge of what happens to the pigs in Animal Farm to appreciate how easily revolutions are deflected from their original course. A recent – and rare – show of unity by disparate Syrian rebel groups suggests this is happening in Syria, too. Throughout the 20 month uprising President Obama has watched and wavered with almost blithe indifference (save for the occasional condemnation) as Bashar al-Assad has killed more than 50,000 of his own people. This changed last week when the White House finally intervened. In its most decisive pronouncement on the conflict to date, the jihadist group known as Jabhat al-Nusrah (which has ties to al-Qaeda) was proscribed.

Great news for Manal al-Sharif, the Saudi activist who rose to prominence after footage of her driving on the Kingdom’s roads went viral on YouTube last year. She was arrested, of course, and spent time in jail for defying the authorities, but a small and committed campaign emerged nonetheless. Their tactics were simple: Sharif and her cohorts repeatedly applied to the General Directorate of Traffic for a driving licence, only to be refused on each occasion. That seemed to change yesterday when a euphoric Sharif tweeted a picture of her new driving licence. The only downside is that it was issued by the United Arab Emirates. Saudi women still face a long road ahead in their quest for equal rights.

The thing about Islamists is that they just can’t help themselves. Mohammed Mursi’s stock was riding high in certain quarters shortly after he slapped down Hamas in Gaza and avoided a full-scale confrontation with Israel. Foreign policy panjandrums in London and Washington who tout fashionable theories of a ‘moderate Muslim Brotherhood’ felt vindicated in their convictions, arguing the group is really just an Arab version of European Christian Democrats. Yet so attracted is the Brotherhood to the clarion call of reaction that after the ceasefire, Mursi instantly seized the moment to reveal his proclivity for authoritarianism.

In the last 12 hours all mobile and internet lines have been cut in Syria, plunging the country into a communications vacuum. The regime has been badly hit in recent days. Almost all of its supply lines into Aleppo have been cut off and a number of strategic military bases were overrun in recent days. Heavy fighting also resulted in Damascus airport closing down earlier today, suggesting the rebels are enjoying a degree of momentum at the moment. For its part, the Assad regime is saying the rebels are responsible for the communications blackout. That might be so, but if true, it reveals just how far Assad’s grip on power has been weakened.

Last night’s ceasefire is a strategic failure for Israel. While the end of military action must be welcomed, it is hard to see what Netanyahu has achieved beyond the killing of Ahmed Jabari. Despite a week of tit-for-tat missile fire, Israel secured none of its strategic objectives. In fact, in many cases it actually strengthened Hamas and diminished Israel’s security. Here’s some of the ways in which Israel has been weakened by Operation Pillar of Defence: 1) Hamas was able to break the psychological barrier of attacking Tel Aviv. No one has fired missiles at the city since 1991 when Saddam Hussein tried to undermine coalition forces in Operation Desert Storm.

As tensions between Israel and Gaza continue to flare, the real story is what’s happening in Cairo. The conflict represents an acute crisis for the Muslim Brotherhood, which knows the West has long been apprehensive about how it would conduct itself with regards to Israel. So far, the Brotherhood has been in no rush to give a definitive answer, offering instead a mix of sabre-rattling and olive branches. Its hand is now being forced. Internally, the Brotherhood is divided over the Gaza conflict. Hard liners see this as an excuse to tear up the peace treaty, reassert Egyptian pride, and impose themselves on the conflict.

Large protests have gripped parts of the Jordanian capital, Amman, today in a country where criticism of the king is punishable by three years in prison. King Abdullah has been careful not to repeat the errors of Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian crackdown which quickly escalated matters in neighbouring Syria. So far, Jordanian police have adopted a passive approach to protesters. Abdullah will be hoping the momentum behind these protests subsides over the coming days. He can still take some relief from the fact these protests have been caused by a hike in fuel prices. This is the vital difference here. The popular uprisings which swept away regimes in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt were principally about corruption and the lack accountability. Abdullah is not yet facing similar criticisms.

With Barack Obama being returned to the White House, it’s worth considering what his key foreign policy challenges will be during the second term. I’ve outlined a few areas I think will dominate his thinking over the next four years. 1. Afghanistan and Pakistan Obama has committed to withdrawing American forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2014. This will be a far from smooth transition. As the number of US forces declines, expect to see a resurgence of the Taliban, greater instability across the country, and the accelerated erosion of Hamid Karzai’s authority.

Trouble continues to brew inside Iran. The ordinarily supine Attorney-General, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi, has defied Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by preventing him from visiting an imprisoned aide. Ahmadinejad is viewed as having acted against the country’s powerful clerical establishment, with whom Ejehi is closely aligned. Indeed, Ahmadinejad’s aide is currently being detained over charges of publishing material which ‘offends’ Islamic norms. He is just one of a dozen political allies close to Ahmadinejad to have found themselves arrested as relations between the political and clerical authorities become increasingly strained. Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad continues to bluster about ‘external enemies’.

It can seem surreal, almost otherworldly, to read about our judiciary these days. Just a few days ago my colleague Douglas Murray wrote about the peculiarity of imposing a custodial sentence on Matthew Woods for posting bad-taste jokes on Facebook about the abduction of April Jones. As if to confirm that the Bar is indeed trading in absurdities, another court has now sentenced Barry Thew to eight months in prison (four of which relate to a bail offence) for wearing a t-shirt on which he scrawled the crude message: ‘One less pig; perfect justice’ and ‘killacopforfun.com haha.’ It should be obvious that one need not laugh at the jokes of Mr Woods or support the sentiments expressed by Mr Thew to recoil at their treatment by the state.