Peter Hoskin

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

The changing face of English football

As Fraser said earlier, we've got a great piece by Mihir Bose in the latest issue of the mag on British football's debt crisis.  I would normally say that non-football fans should look away now, but the story is so redolent of the entire financial crisis that it's worth any CoffeeHouser's time.  What you'll find is a tale of big clubs, big egos and even bigger debts – the latter running into billions of pounds. Much of this debt has been down to financial brinkmanship on the part of football club owners and chairmen.  Even though money has been pouring into the English game from global television deals and the like, they've been spending money to buy players, and fund wage structures, that they simply can't afford.  This has left many clubs close to ruin.

Peter Hoskin

If Brown-Morgan can’t move the polls, what about the TV debates?

Brace yourselves.  There's going to be poll after poll after poll in the weeks leading to the election.  And the onslaught starts in the Sun today, with the first of their YouGov daily tracker polls.  It is also the first to be conducted in the aftermath of the Brown and Morgan interview. So what's the story?  Well, Labour's vote is more or less unmoved - suggesting, in turn, that the public were more or less unmoved by Brown's interview with Piers Morgan.  They're on 30 percent (down 1), with the Tories on 39 percent (up 1), and the Lib Dems on 18 (down 1).  That's a 9 point lead for the Tories. Of course, you could say that this is because the public didn't like what they saw on the Brown interview.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

The Tories’ new poster campaign is a massive improvement over the last

I know there's a danger of expending too many words on poster campaigns, so just a quick post to flag up the designs the Tories launched this morning.  There's one of them above, and two more based on the same theme - "I've never voted Tory before, but..." - which you can see here. To my eyes, at least, they're a massive improvement over the last, graveyard poster: refreshingly positive, while also attacking The Way Things Are Now.   Now, I know there are CoffeeHousers who liked the Death Tax poster precisely because it got down 'n' dirty, taking the fight to Labour.  But, despite their sunnier front, these latest posters will also hit Labour where it hurts.  After all, one of the ideas that Brown & Co.

Peter Hoskin

The politics of Osborne’s co-ops

There's plenty of buzz this morning about George Osborne's new policy proposal: allowing public sector workers to run schools, job-centres, hospitals and other services as cooperatives. James Crabtree, Tim Montgomerie and Spectator.co.uk's very own Martin Bright have exhaustive posts on why this might work in practice. It is, as they all suggest, pretty radical stuff.   But it's also clever politics.  It is something which appeals directly to people on the left (like Martin), as well as public sector workers.

Peter Hoskin

Will Brown’s next interrogators be the public?

So what next for the new, more human, Gordon Brown (as seen on TV)?  Well, according to today's Times, there are some ministers who want him to take the show on the road.  The idea is to let voters tackle Brown directly - but about the topics Piers Morgan kinda skipped over: the economy, MPs' expenses, Afghanistan, and all the other big stuff.  And the hope, in turn, is that this "masochism strategy" will make the public respect Brown more. Would it work?  Well, just like the Morgan interview and its wider impact, that's something which is difficult to pre-judge from the confines of Westminster.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

The Tories take the fight to Labour over social justice

Statistics about educational inequality in this country always tend to shock and dismay in equal measure.  And this latest piece of research from Michael Gove's office is no exception: "New analysis by the Conservatives shows that just 45 pupils on Free School Meals (FSM) make it to Oxford or Cambridge each year. One top London private school gets an average of 82 Oxbridge admissions a year – almost double the number of FSM admissions. One leading independent girls’ school produces the same number of Oxbridge entrants as the entire FSM cohort.  Just 1 per cent of FSM pupils go on to a Russell Group university." Just to be clear, the overall Oxbridge intake is about 6,000 students a year.  So 45 pupils on FSM represents 0.75 percent of that.

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron brings some clarity to the table

Maybe it's just a slow Saturday, but the Conservatives' latest WebCameron video (see below) strikes me as one of the most effective yet. The pitch is straightforward: make an appeal to people who voted New Labour or who "have never voted Tory before".  So things like Sure Start and the minimum wage get a namecheck. But, aside from that, it's striking just how clearly and unequivocally Cameron sets out Tory commitments such as recognising marriage in the tax system. Indeed, the passage on the "root causes of our social breakdown", and how the Tories would deal with them, harkens back to his powerful address at the party conference.  Only, this time, it's a bit more conversational.  And there's a greenhouse in the background.

Peter Hoskin

A ceasefire in the VAT war?

Has another dividing line faded into the sand?  It sure looks like it, going off this Times report on how both Labour and the Tories are considering hiking VAT to 20 percent.  If you recall, it was thought that Brown blocked Alistair Darling's plan to introduce the rise in last year's Pre-Budget Report - and all so he could attack the Tories over reports that they would do similar.  The PM will find it a lot harder to stage that attack after this morning. A few weeks ago, the rumour was that Labour would make keeping VAT at 17.5 percent a "main election pledge".  Whether that pledge now appears, or not, will say a lot about the shifting balance of power between Brown and his Chancellor.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Darling enters election mode

There must be something about stepping back onto Scottish soil that invigorates Alistair Darling, because his Edinburgh speech is one of the most political and confrontational he has delivered for some time.  Sure, Darling is a Labour man, so it's part of his job to oppose the Tories.  But, compared to his Cabinet colleagues, he's normally so restrained about it.  Here, though, the gloves are well and truly off. The Chancellor calls Cameron a "real risk to Scotland's future," and throws in a dash of Thatcher-baiting ("The Tories ... are as out of touch now as they were 30 years ago").  But, really, there are two passages worth dwelling on, for what they might tell us about Labour's election campaign.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Quote of the day | 11 February 2010

Is it just me, or is there something grimly hilarious about The Man Who Claimed To Have Abolished Boom-And-Bust describing our recent economic turmoil as a "one-off"?  Yep, here's Brown in today's FT: "We are paying a one-off cost for globalisation." More seriously, this is the technocratic side of Brown which Downing St will hope to contain during the election campaign.  Calling the recession and its rocky aftermath a "one-off cost" is unlikely to play well with people who have lost their jobs and businesses.

Peter Hoskin

The Cameroons are fleshing out the agenda which may come to define them

If you were going to craft The Most Exciting Speech Ever, then there's a good chance it wouldn't contain the phrase "Post-Bureaucratic Age," and wouldn't be delivered at the Technology-Entertainment-Design conference.  But – as James Crabtree points out in an great post over at Prospect – there are quite a few reasons to take David Cameron's speech on post-bureacracy to the, erm, Technology-Entertainment-Design conference, last night, very seriously indeed.  Not least of which is this announcement: "A Conservative government will publish all government contracts worth over £25,000 for goods and services in full, including all performance indicators, break clauses and penalty measures.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Best served cold

Good spot by the FT's Jim Pickard, who has picked up on these informal minutes from the last meeting of Labour's National Executive Committee.  He's aleady rooted out some of the juiciest sections (including stuff about voting reform and the election date), so I'd suggest you head over to the FT Westminster blog for that.  But this deliciously sinister reference to the Hoon and Hewitt plot deserves repeating: "Two weeks earlier, members of the organisation committee had forcefully expressed grassroots anger at continuing outbreaks of indiscipline at senior levels and agreed that all members should be equally subject to party rules, but the NEC ended up adopting Dennis Skinner's advice to deny the troublemakers the oxygen of publicity. We may return to them after the election.

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 10 February 2010

Stay tuned for live coverage from 1200. 1200: And we're off, bang on time.  First question on Labour's elderly care plans.  Brown delivers a load of platitudes about how the government is committed to better care.  Even adds that he hopes for cross-party backing. 1201: Cameron now.  He leads on elderly care plans too - and how they will be funded.  With a nod to a letter in today's Times, he adds that people who will have to implement it thinks its disastrous. 1202: Brown's on fiesty, if typically disingenous, form.  He says that he "knows how [Cameron] likes personality politics".  His substantial point, though, is that the Tories supported the Bill in the Commons. 1205: Cameron effectively repeats the point with his second question.

Peter Hoskin

Has that Tory poster made Brown’s job easier in PMQs?

Yesterday's Guardian story about a potential death tax would have been perfect material for Cameron in PMQs. Even after Andy Burnham's denials, there are still legitimate questions to be asked about it. For instance, would the government say that they will never propose the tax? And, if not, how will they pay for their social care guarantees otherwise? Fired across the dispatch box, these enquiries could have put Brown on the back foot. But now that the Tories have jumped the gun, and released that poster attacking a Labour policy which isn't actually a Labour policy, they've rather limited that line of questioning. If the death tax comes up, all Brown need do is point to the poster and cry foul play. He can even throw in a few words like   "misleading," for good measure.

Peter Hoskin

Cameron attacks tax-happy Brown

A strident interview from David Cameron in today's Express, in which he touches on everything from inheritance tax to not, never, ever joining the Euro. It's this passage that jumped out at me, though: “Middle Britain has had a wretched time under Labour. This Government has taxed mortgages, marriages, pensions, petrol and travel and raised national insurance and the top rate of income tax. We cannot keep squeezing hard-working families." Why so noteworthy? Well, off the top of my head, this is the first time that Cameron has referred to the current system as a "tax on marriage".

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

The Tories’ new attack poster is Brownite politics at its worst

The Tories are keen to hammer the government over the £20,000 "death tax" story which appeared in the Guardian this morning.  And, to that end, they've produced the attack poster above.  According to their press release, it will appear in 18 sites across London tonight. At first glance, it's a strong image with an equally strong message.  So what's the problem?  Well, only the fact that Andy Burnham this morning denied the death tax claim with the words, "The Guardian story suggests a £20,000 flat levy. I'm not currently considering that as a lead option for reform."  Sure, the Health Secretary has left himself some wiggle room – he could still introduce the levy.  But the fact remains that the death tax isn't current Labour policy.

Peter Hoskin

Blair on Chilcot…

...well, sorta.  5:25 into his interview with Mike Huckabee, our former PM gives his take on the constant stream of Iraq inquiries: You can certainly see his point. Although I doubt the government will be too impressed with Blair trawling through all the Iraq stuff on American television, only weeks before he hits the campaign trail for Labour.

Peter Hoskin

How should the Tories respond to those Labour guarantees?

If you're going to take anything away from Andy Burnham's press conference this morning – apart from his denials about a £20,000 "death duty" – it's how heavily those Labour "guarantees" are going to feature in the election campaign.  Here we had social care guarantees, cancer treatment guarantees, waiting line guarantees, and even a new website and poster (see above) attacking the Tories for not signing up to the same guarantees.  So far as the government is concerned, it matters not that these pledges have been made before – what matters is the opportunity to draw more dividing lines across the landscape of British politics.  "Caring" versus "cruel", as far as the eye can see.

Peter Hoskin

Accountability on your iPhone

With Brown pitching his AV referendum as the solution to at least some of our political ills, it's worth highlighting the quieter efforts of another Labour MP, Derek Wyatt, to fix the system.  Mr Wyatt, you see, has got involved with the MyMP iPhone app which helps voters track and converse with their MPs.  The first version was released on 15 January, but, I must admit, I've only just come across it thanks to the Telegraph's report this morning. Sure, an iPhone app is only a small thing.  And, in this case, there's certainly room for improvement, as well as for more MPs signing up to the service.  But it's a decent start - and further proof that a combination of simple technology and proactivity on the part of MPs can result in something very much like progress.