Peter Hoskin

When does reputational damage become real damage?

So has the Lord Ashcraft saga fouled the Tories' reputation?  Well, looking at this One Poll survey in PR Week it would seem it has.  52 percent of respondents feel that the party's reputation hasn't improved since the start of the year – and 37 percent think that the Ashcroft revelations are the biggest contributing factor to that. But what does all that really mean?  After all, another finding is that 20 percent of respondents believe that the 2006 story about a bike-riding Cameron being trailed by his chauffeur is "still damaging" to the Tories.  That may be so.  But will that kind of reputational "damage" really stop people voting for the Tories come the election?  Similarly, will the Ashcroft story actually sway hearts and minds?

The Tories try to plug a leak

What a difference two weeks make.  When the Ashcroft story first broke, the Tory response was equal parts sloppy and defensive.  Now, their operation seems altogether more incisive.  William Hague kicked off his Today programme interview by saying that leak of Cabinet Office papers to the BBC was proof of Labour's "culture of leak, half-truth and spin".  And Sir George Young has just written to the Cabinet Secretary asking him to hold an inquiry into the matter.  Here's a copy of the letter: Sir Gus O'Donnell KCB Cabinet Secretary Cabinet Office 70 Whitehall London SW1A 2AS   Sensitive papers prepared by the Cabinet Office for a Select Committee inquiry have been leaked to the BBC. You will be aware that this is a serious matter.

The Lib Dems keep ’em guessing

Last week, Nick Clegg was singing the blues.  But, this week, it's clear that he's doing as much as possible to distinguish his party from the others.  Indeed, his performance in PMQs yesterday was a case in point: he went out of his way to attack both Brown and Cameron, and positioned his side as the non-Unite, non-Ashcroft choice.  Given the Lib Dem's recent history with dodgy donors, that's a move which - at the very least - is going to ruffle a few red and blue feathers. So it's striking, today, that the Lib Dems are probably going even heavier on the Ashcroft story than Labour.

The Tories and Lord Ashcroft – stupidity rather than wrongdoing?<br />

So the Lord Ashcroft story is back on the airwaves, courtesy of a document leaked to the BBC.  That document shows William Hague was "satisfied" with the discussions about Ashcroft's undertakings in 2000 – so the Tories wheeled the shadow foreign secretary onto the Today programme to explain himself to Evan Davis.  Three things struck me: i) Stupidity rather than wrongdoing.  When the Ashcroft story first broke a couple of weeks ago, Labour seemed eager to turn it into one of Tory wrongdoing – they called for inquiries left, right and centre (indeed, there's one taking place today), in the apparent hope that they'd find something improper had gone on.   But the more that's emerged, the less likely that has become.

Words fail me…

...when it comes to the Lib Dem's offical election song, performed by the Liberal Democrat Community Choir: You can, er, buy it on iTunes if you like.

Will Nick Griffin become a victim of his own expense claims?

If two things fuelled the rise of the BNP last year, then they were probably the mainstream parties' reluctance to talk about immigration and a general disillusionment with Westminster politicians in the wake of the expenses scandal.  There are tentative signs that the parties are getting their act together on the first.  And, now, Nick Griffin  may have undermined his own party when it comes to the second. After coming under fire for not being transparent about expenses since becoming an MEP, Griffin has now published a very loose account of them on his website.

PMQs live blog | 17 March 2010

Stay tuned for live coverage from 1200. 1201: And here we go. Brown starts with condolences for fallen troops, and also for the late Labour MP Ashok Kumar and his family.  For the first question, Tony Baldry takes on Brown over his claim that defence expendintue has risen in real terms under Labour.  A note from the House of Commons library has since shown this to be "incorrect".  Brown says that he is already writing to Chilcot to correct this.  Brown: "I do accept that, in one or two years, defence expenditure did not rise in real terms" - but it did rise in cash terms.  Not a good start for the PM. 1203: The Tories are up in arms about Brown's jibe, in response to the second question, that they'd cut SureStart centres. 1205: Cameron now.

For the workers?

One of the defences that Labour types are mustering over Unite is, bascially, that it's better to be funded by a body which represents some two million workers than by Ashcroft type figures who may have their own personal agendas. In which case, the question is: do Charlie Whelan and his coterie really represent the views and interests of Unite's members?  And, in answer, it's worth pulling out two snippets from today's papers. EXHIBIT A, courtesy of Danny Finkelstein: "A Populus poll of Unite members last year showed the majority preferring David Cameron to Gordon Brown and opposing Unite donations to Labour.

Nick Clegg pulls those fences down

Continuing the current vogue for sensible economic debate, here's what Nick Clegg said on Radio 4 just now: 'We're not entering into this dutch auction about ringfencing. Good outcomes aren't determined by drawing a redline around government departmental budgets.' Given the current speculation about a hung parliament, you've got to wonder what this might mean for any potential Lib-Con partnership.  The common wisdom, almost certainly correct, is that the resulting political paralysis would sink the public finances.  But it would be intrigiuing to see if Clegg could get the Tories to tighten their fiscal plans, and perhaps even smash a few of their ringfences.

The Tories open fire on Unite

So, the Tories have declared war on Charlie Whelan and Unite – what Eric Pickles calls the "great untold story of British politics". He was joined by no less than two more shadow frontbenchers – Michael Gove and Theresa Villiers – at a briefing attacking the union's political influence this morning. And that's not all: the Tories have produced a document detailing how Unite is funding Labour and opposing reform, and there's even a new digital poster campaign to go along with it.  The gloves are well and truly off.

Brown faces the horror of the petrol pumps

Yes, I know, cause and correlation aren't the same thing – but Mike Smithson's latest graph over at Political Betting is still incredibly striking.  It shows that the Tories' strongest poll position over the last few years coincided with a high in the petrol price.  It also shows that the smallest gap between Labour and the Tories coincided with when petrol prices were at their lowest.  Which all makes today's Telegraph story about petrol potentially hitting a new high of 120p a litre, as the election approaches, very resonant indeed. The problem for the government is twofold.  First, rising petrol prices are something which millions of people will understand and feel, so much more so than abstract talk about cuts, deficits and the like.

Tories to outline spending cuts after the Budget

Now here's a turn up: according to Nick Robinson, the Tories are going to announce details of what spending they would cut in the forthcoming fiscal year after next week's Budget.  So it looks like Cameron might come good on his promise, after all. We'll have to wait and see before judging whether those cuts are credible.  But, along with George Osborne's FT article today, it does seem that the Tories have rediscovered the will to take on Labour over when and what to cut.

Osborne tries to kickstart a mature economic debate

David has already blogged about George Osborne and Jeffrey Sach's article in the FT this morning.  But it's worth returning to what is as clear and as unalloyed a statement of Tory policy on the public finances as you'll have seen over the past few months.   What I find most impressive about the article isn't so much its loose, perhaps nebulous, prescriptions for the economy - although they're sensible enough - but rather the way it acknowledges how some prominent academic and public figures hold a different view of things, and explains, in straightforward terms, why the Tories don't agree with them.  For instance: "The financial models underpinning the two camps differ.

Brown sets the stage for a scorched earth Budget

Gordon Brown must be feeling generous today, for he did the Tories two favours on Woman's Hour earlier.  David has already mentioned the first one: Brown saying that he would "keep going" as party leader even if Labour loses the next election, which ups the potential for more summertime Sturm und Drang on his own side.  But the second, as Ben Brogan points out, is his claim that the state of the economy makes it difficult for the government to detail any spending cuts.  The Tories will happily seize on that to justify their own "wait until we see the books" approach. More broadly, Brown's claim also sets the stage for next week's Budget.  The obvious insinuation is that it won't contain much by way of cuts or new deficit reduction plans.

Today’s welfare state is making poverty permanent

‘Drug addiction, alcoholism, criminal records, language difficulties, a lack of skills, depression...’ Anyone working alongside Britain’s long-term unemployed can recite a grim litany of social ills. ‘Drug addiction, alcoholism, criminal records, language difficulties, a lack of skills, depression...’ Anyone working alongside Britain’s long-term unemployed can recite a grim litany of social ills. But when I speak to a welfare adviser in Tower Hamlets – one of London’s poorest boroughs – he emphasises a single factor, above all others, to explain the area’s endemic worklessness: ‘the benefits trap’ – the idea that you can be better off on benefits than in work.

The Budget will be on 24 March

So now we know.  Gordon Brown has just announced that the Budget will be on 24 March – which strongly implies an election date of 6 May.  Brown could dissolve Parliament on 6 April, the manifestos would be published on 12 April, and then we'd be into the campaign proper.  Which means even more speeches, polls and dread speculation than we're getting now. As for the Budget's general flavour, we'll probably get an idea of that today, too.  Brown's currently giving a speech in which he's brushing over recent tremors in the markets, to say that we are "weathering the storm; now is no time to turn back".  Which comes straight off the same old hymnsheet: let's stick to our current deficit reduction plan (such as it is), and turn up the spending taps this year.

Vaizey drops Cameron in it (again)

Michael Wolff's portrait of David Cameron in the latest issue of Vanity Fair is well worth reading, even it it's a weird kind of a beast. Wolff concludes – at the start of the piece, as it happens – that he's "impressed" by the Tory leader. But then spends the best part of 2,000 words spraying out quotes and observations which will harden the attitudes of Cameron's detractors, on both the left and the right. Cameron is a "toff"; Boris doubts his "intellectual bona fides"; the Tories have "anti-riffraff" policy on marriage, and so on. Wolff even quotes one Fraser Nelson, saying that he doesn't "believe for a minute [Cameron] believes protecting the N.H.S. is a good idea".

A warning that applies to the Tories as much as it does to Labour

As James Kirkup says over at the Telegraph, it's worth paying attention to the credit rating agency Fitch when it says that the UK deficit will need to be cut quicker than is currently planned – to 3.3 percent of GDP by 2015, rather than 4.4 percent.  Throw in similar warnings from the Confederation of British Industry and the Institute of Directors yesterday, and you've got a bunch of testimonies which are broadly supportive of the Tory narrative.  You can expect CCHQ to give them plenty of airtime over the next few days.    But, lest it need repeating, the pleas from the CBI and others could well be directed at the Tories as well as Labour.  Sure, Cameron & Co.

A well-timed change of heart from Lord Paul?

Previously, there were rumblings that Lord Paul was considering quitting the Lords to keep his non-dom status. Today, he has confirmed that he will end his non-dom status and remain in the Lords. If you were being cynical, you might think that there's been a change of heart so that Labour can ramp up their attacks on the Tories over Lord Ashcroft. But surely Brown & Co. would want to keep their focus on the "serious business" of government, wouldn't they?

Charlie Whelan’s role in Labour’s election campaign

If you want a sense of how much work Charlie Whelan and Unite are doing on behalf of Gordon Brown, then I'd recommend you read Rachel Sylvester's column in the Times this morning.  There are the millions of pounds in funding, via the taxpayer, of course.  There's Unite's "virtual phone bank," canvassing votes for Labour.  And then there's Whelan himself – now almost as involved as ever with the Downing Street operation, and "working closely" with Douglas Alexander on Labour's election campaign.  This is, I remind you, the Charlie Whelan who was copied into the Smeargate emails, and whose other indiscretions are better described by Martin Bright and Nick Cohen, here and here.