Let's just consider three of today's events: i) Gordon Brown has led his party to Michael Foot-era levels of support. ii) Peter Mandelson has very publicly knifed his boss on national televsion. And, iii) Nick Clegg has said that the Tories have the "first right" to form a government. Senior Labour figures are suggesting that a deal with the Lib Dems remains possible – but Brown's fingernail grip on the premiership looks to be weakening by the minute.
So Nick Clegg has finally spoken – and his words will be welcomed by the Tories. In an address outside of the Lib Dem HQ on Cowley St, he reiterated his previous argument that "whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, without gaining a majority, has the first right to form a government." But added that "it seems this morning that the Conservative Party have the most votes and the most seats ... it is for the Conservative Party to prove that it is capable of governing in the national interest." What this means in practice isn't 100 percent certain – although it doesn't sound good for Labour.
Labour's victory in Erith and Thamesmead has just made a hung parliament mathematically certain. So there you go.
Peter Mandelson has just tossed a firecracker in to the arena. Asked on the Beeb whether Labour might get rid of Brown to accommodate the Lib Dems, he replied: "There will be a number of permutations ... I'm not ruling anything in, or anything out." So, in other words: yes.
Let's rewind to 10pm yesterday evening, when the exit poll was released. Most politicos - myself included - were incredulous. We could just about believe that there might be a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but a reduced number of Lib Dem seats? After Cleggmania and all those recent opinion polls? Gedouttahere. But, this morning, that exit poll is looking a good deal more prescient. After an evening of erratic results, Sky's projection matches it almost exactly: 309 seats for the Tories, 259 for Labour, and 54 for the Lib Dems. So we're on for a hung parliament, and all the backroom discussion and subterfuge that that entails. Already, the dividing lines have been traced across Westminster.
0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in second. 0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg. 0638, PH: Clegg says "this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems - and we obviously didn't achieve what we hoped to achieve." 0637, PH: In his acceptance speech, Nick Clegg is going big on the voting problems of last night. 0634, PH: Some good news for the Lib Dems: erm, Nick Clegg holds in Sheffield Hallam. With an increased majority. 0620, JGF: Jon Cruddas holds on, he'll have a big role to play in the Labour party machinations of the last few days.
Just under two hours to go until polls close, and Tory types around Westminster seem fairly confident that they can snatch a majority. Their argument remains the same: that a combination of their party's concentrated firepower in the marginals and their motivated voting base will swing it for them. And their demeanour is slightly more relaxed than you'd expect. Maybe they're just tired, maybe it's all show – but, in true Catchphrase style, I'm simply saying what I see. CoffeeHousers seem just as confident, if not more so. Over in our poll on Spectator Live, 60 percent of you think we'll end up with a Tory majority. 27 percent go for a Tory minority government. And then we're into fractions for the other options.
David and Samantha Cameron leaving the polling station in Spelsbury Gordon and Sarah Brown arrive to vote in North Queensferry Nick and Miriam Clegg vote in Sheffield.
Now's the time, dear CoffeeHouser. After nearly three years in Number Ten, Gordon Brown is finally subjecting himself to the wishes of the British public. And, signs are, he won't like what they've got to say. Putting the strong possibility of a hung parliament aside, last night's opinion polls had Labour on or around Michael Foot levels of support. A few folk, like Marbury, have observed that it's almost like the campaign didn't happen. And they're right: there is a peculiar symmetry to the electoral calculus. After all the mood shifts of the past four weeks, we're back broadly where we started: with the Tories looking to gain either a small majority, or be the largest party in a hung parliament. But it's worth remarking on some of the changes which have stuck.
Is this it? A couple more polls have been released, and – like all the others tonight – they point towards a hung parliament. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tories on 36 percent (up three points), Labour on 28 percent (no change), and the Lib Dems on 26 (down 2). And a ComRes effort for the Independent and ITV has the parties on 37, 28 and 28, respectively. Most Tories I've spoken with this evening are, they say, mildly pleased with the opinion polls. Not overjoyed, of course – but they feel their party's greater firepower in the marginals means that numbers like those above will translate to a small majority. Either way, things are certainly very close.
You want more numbers? Well, the YouGov figures for the Sun have just come in, and they are: the Tories on 35 percent (no change), Labour on 28 percent (down two), and the Lib Dems on 28 percent (up 4). So far tonight, all the polls have been in hung parliament territory (on an uniform national swing). And most have Labour and the Lib Dems more or less on level-pegging. More polls here and here. There's a good handful still to come, so keep your seat calculators to hand. UPDATE: YouGov also conducted some marginals polling.
So the Times/Populus results are in, and they have the Tories on 37 percent (up one), Labour on 28 percent (up one), and the Lib Dems on 27 percent (down one). On a uniform national swing, this would leave us in hung parliament territory. But Tories I speak to are pretty confident that numbers like these, if replicated tomorrow, could give them a majority. Elsewhere, TNS-BMRB has the Tories on 33, Labour on 27 and the Lib Dems on 29. Angus Reed for Political Betting has Tories on 36, Labour on 24, and the Lib Dems on 29.
Make no mistake: tomorrow's election is just so many beginnings. The beginning of a fiscal footslog for the next government. The beginning of the Lib Dems' struggle to maintain attention and support. The beginning, perhaps, of backroom negotiations to determine who gets to govern our country. But, of all these beginnings, there's one which threatens to be more violent and compulsive than all the rest: a Labour leadership contest. Over at Spectator Live, we polled CoffeeHousers on who will emerge victorious from the bloodbath, and the results are now in. David Miliband came out on top with 46 percent of the vote. Next came "other" on 16 percent (who did you have in mind? Jon Cruddas?). And then Alan Johnson (11 percent) and Peter Mandelson (9 percent).
...and it's from the Daily Express/Opinium. They have the Tories on 35 percent (up 2), Labour on 27 percent (up 1) and the Lib Dems on 26 percent (down 1). So, an 8 point lead for the Tories. I know plenty of CoffeeHousers have had their fill of opinion polls. But, obviously, the shifts and percentages take on an extra piquancy tonight. Tune back later for more.
Silver medal in the Graph of the Day contest (we'll have the gold medallist up on Coffee House later) goes to this effort from YouGov. It's just been published, with details, over at PoliticsHome, and tracks public "buzz" about the three party leaders during the course of the campaign. I'm not sure how much to read into it, but the peaks and troughs do follow the contours of the election - so Clegg's support rises after the first TV debate, Brown's plummets after the Gillian Duffy incident, and Cameron pretty much flatlines it. One striking feature is how much ground Brown has caught up since last week: the last few days really have been his best for some time. Not that any of this will really matter after tomorrow.
Alas, and most reluctantly, you've got to hand it to Brown: he's a scrapper. Just watching coverage of his speech in Bradford now, and he seems to be on punchy form. The message is stridently negative, of course. And he has entrenched himself, as David noted earlier, back behind the old "investment vs cuts" line (although now he calls it "selfish individiualism over public investment"). But this is clearly where the PM is happiest and at his most comfortable. Aggressive clunk is simply what he does best. The question hanging over the dying stages of the campaign is this: will the negativity cut through?
Here's a minor turn-up for the political anoraks' scrapbooks: donations to Labour outstripped those going to the Tory party in the third week of the campaign. Brown & Co. were handed £1,416,863 against the Tories' £645,250. Which is no sign of an effective campaign - after all, almost all of Labour's publicity has been heavily negative. But it is a turnaround from the first week, when the Tories received £1,455,812 to Labour's £783,159. Another thing to note is the downturn in Lib Dem donations. They jumped up to £120,000 in the second week, but have now sunk back to £64,000. The Tories, in particular, will be hoping that that represents a slowing of the Nick Clegg bandwagon.
Here's the Tory film which I previewed in my last post:.
"Where's the popcorn?" I thought, as I joined a bunch of journos to watch the Tories' final broadcast of the election campaign. It was a good nine minutes long, and might as well have been titled The Downfall of New Labour. The opening shots were of Blair and Brown in 97: "a new dawn," and all that. But Blair's image soon faded to black-and-white, and we were bombarded with a montage of headlines, quotes and images which highlighted the failures of the Labour years. 10p tax. Falling education standards. MRSA. The misdemeanours of Peter Mandelson. Defence spending. Purnell's resignation. Gillian Duffy. Even Manish Sood's comments today. Depending on your disposition, it was all gorily nostalgic stuff. Negative, yes. But quite powerful nonetheless.
George Osborne sounds a more confident note than most of his Tory bandmates in interview with the Standard today. On top of the obligatory Ready for Government noises, he rattles off a list of London marginals which are winnable for the Tories, and adds that an overall majority is "within our grasp". Pretty direct stuff for a politician, given all the uncertainty clogging the air in Westminster. To my eyes, though, the most significant passage could be this: "He gave a commitment to keep London's £16 billion Crossrail scheme, although he confirmed he will look for savings. 'I think Londoners would expect me to get good value for their money.
