Penworthy

With more rain to come, the ground at Newbury tomorrow is going to be really testing for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (3.20 p.m.). That will make the result more of a lottery because several of the horses at the top of the market would not ideally want it looking like a bog. Those preferring a sounder surface may include my long-term tip for the race, Dance and Glance, put up each way at 20-1. He does have form on soft ground but Newbury 'heavy' is a different kettle of fish altogether. Hot Fuss did this column a good turn, winning at a double-figure price at Windsor three weeks ago and he is capable of defying a 5 lbs penalty tomorrow.

With two of the big races on Cheltenham Trials Day tomorrow attracting four runners, I am looking at the lower-profile contests for my suggested bets. Without each-way betting, I have no desire to take on odds-on shots Grey Dawning in the Grade 2 Betfair Cotswold Chase (2.25 p.m.) or Sir Gino in the Unibet Hurdle (3 p.m.). If Jagwar is as good as connections think he is – the horse’s ultimate aim is the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – then he will need to win tomorrow’s Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (1.15 p.m.) off an official mark of 149. He’s probably the right favourite on form and expectation but his joint trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have still not peaked with their horses this season and I would prefer to look elsewhere.

Lambourn trainer Jamie Snowden continues to enjoy a stellar season in which he has landed some big-race prizes. His general statistics are impressive too: 62 winners from just 218 runners for a strike rate of 28 per cent. Snowden has plenty of interesting runners at Ascot and Windsor this weekend and I would be surprised if he did not have a winner or two over the next three days. One of his Ascot runners tomorrow, in the in the BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (2.53 p.m.), is MARCHE D’ALIGRE who looks overpriced even though this is a competitive contest. This five-year-old gelding was backed into favouritism last month for a handicap hurdle at Sandown and, although he was only second that day, his run can be upgraded given he made a terrible hash of the third obstacle.

With the cold snap likely to play havoc with the weekend race cards in Britain, it seems more sensible for me to take an early look at the Cheltenham Festival from an ante-post point of view. It is stating the obvious but the number one rule of ante-post betting is to do all you can to back a horse that is going to run in your chosen race – in this case one of the contests at the Cotswolds racecourse in two months’ time. For me that rules out most of the high-class novice hurdles and novice chasers in which Irish trainer Willie Mullins and other top yards like to shuffle their pack with different horses being allocated to different races of different distances right up to the 48-hour declaration stages. I will look elsewhere for two ante-post bets.

After so much superb racing over the festive period, it is disappointing to see such small fields at Sandown for tomorrow’s main card in Britain. Between five and 11 runners are due to take part in the seven races at the Esher course. The quicker-than-usual ground conditions for the time of year partly account for the small turn-outs. The Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase final (3.05 p.m.), over three miles, sees Dorset trainer Anthony Honeyball field one third of the nine runners. One of his horses, Gustavian, has been aimed at this race for some time as has Dan Skelton’s runner Le Milos, despite some indifferent form this season.

The Gloucestershire yard of Ben Pauling has gone from strength to strength in recent seasons and today could see it reach a new high when the trainer sends his stable star to Kempton to compete in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (2.30 p.m.). THE JUKEBOX MAN will face seven talented rivals, including two hot-pots from the yard of Irish maestro Willie Mullins, when he runs in the Grade 1 contest over a distance of three miles. The Jukebox Man has plenty to find on official ratings with almost all his rivals but Pauling remains quietly confident that this lightly-raced seven-year-old gelding, owned by former football manager Harry Redknapp, is up to the task. Unusually, Mullins has brought over not one but two of his best staying chasers for this race.

Jockey James Best rode into the history books yesterday when he partnered Britain’s longest-priced winner, courtesy of 300-1 shot Blowers, who landed the first race at Exeter in attritional conditions. The horse was named after retired cricket commentator Henry Blofeld, who is nicknamed 'Blowers'. Tomorrow, I am hoping the same jockey can ride arguably his favourite horse to victory at more conventional odds when he partners My Silver Lining in Haydock’s Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2.05 p.m.). This nine-year-old grey mare gave Best, who hopefully would not be offended at being described as a 'journeyman jockey', his career highlight when the pair won the Wigley Group Classic Chase at Warwick in January last year.

Strong course form is always a major plus for horses contesting races at Cheltenham, whether it is at the Festival in March or any other meeting at the track. The trouble when evaluating the merits of the runners in the tomorrow’s big race, The Support the Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase, (1.50 p.m.), is that all three horses vying for favouritism have run big races at Cheltenham. So, too, have several of the others in the race so it is difficult to rule out many of the 11 runners. Jagwar, Hoe Joly Smoke and Vincenzo are at the top of the market and of the three the first mentioned has the most potential to become a graded horse. However, the poor form of his yard means I would not want to take odds of 7-2 on Jagwar.

Sam Thomas was a talented jockey – riding Denman to victory in the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup – but he is an even better trainer. His winning strike rate with his runners is phenomenal, and this doesn’t simply come from picking off low-quality races. Thomas is never happier than plundering decent prize money at the big meetings. This jumps’ season he has only had 30 runners yet 12 of them have won for a strike rate of 40 percent. His strike rate over the past four seasons has been at over 20 per cent which is no mean feat for any handler. Thomas’s biggest owner is Welsh businessman Dai Walters, who understands racing inside and out. He is a dream owner, too, in that he is supportive of his trainer and patient when, inevitably, some of his string pick up injuries.

Trainers Harry Derham and Emma Lavelle will almost certainly leave their mark at Newbury over the next two days. Whereas Britain’s most successful trainers target the Cheltenham Festival in March with their elite horses, this talented pair are more realistic and aim their best horses at this two-day meeting. For both handlers it is their local track, prize money is good and the racecourse is fair to horses so there are plenty of reasons for wanting to single out the meeting. The problem from a punting point of view is which of their horses to back. Derham is due to have six runners over the two days, while Lavelle is due to have no less than nine over the same period. I will start with today’s card.

Herefordshire trainer Tom Symonds has his string in fine form with four winners from his last eight runners for a strike rate of 50 per cent over the past fortnight. Even his supposed no-hoper Gaelic Saint comfortably outran her odds at Warwick yesterday when second at 50-1 in a mares’ novices’ hurdle. Tomorrow one of Symonds’s stable stars NAVAJO INDY will try to keep up the good work for the yard at Haydock when he contests the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2.25 p.m.) in search of a first prize to winning connections of nearly £57,000.

Fairly heavy rain fell at Cheltenham overnight and there is a lot more to come today. If there is anything near the predicted 30mm of the wet stuff over 24 hours, the ground could easily turn to heavy which, whether racing is over jumps or the flat, tends to make the results something of a lottery. Of course, punters have to concentrate on horses that have won or run well in very soft conditions but it is not always as simple as that. Today’s Grade 2 Schloer Chase (2.55 p.m.) is an intriguing contest and sees the return of Jonbon, who is trying to win this race for the third year running. Nicky Henderson’s admirable chaser will not mind the soft ground but he has never been his best at Cheltenham.

The first race of the season over the Grand National fences at Aintree takes place tomorrow when 17 runners are due to line up for the William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2.40 p.m.). A good case can be made for the first three in the betting: King Turgeon, White Rhino and Johnnywho. The former won this race a year ago before showing further improvement later in the season, whereas the other two have clearly been targeted at this contest for some time and are potential improvers. If one of them wins at around 5-1, then so be it but I would prefer to look for value elsewhere. At first glance, OUR POWER was not an immediate pick for this race having been running well at distances of up to four miles last season, whereas tomorrow’s contest is over only two miles five furlongs.

The results of last weekend’s races provided a reminder that it is impossible to know which horses are fit enough to do themselves justice on their first runs of the season. Several trainers sent their horses to Cheltenham thinking they would run well on their seasonal debut only to be disappointed. Three horses tipped in this column a week ago were among those to under-perform first time out. So this weekend I am going to be more cautious. One horse that has already had a run this season, and a winning one at that, is INDEMNITY in the 12-runner Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (Ascot, tomorrow 3.10 p.m.). This improving five-year-old gelding is a consistent performer and he is now on a hat-trick.

The time seems right to move from the flat to the jumps for tipping purposes. Qipco-sponsored Champions Day at Ascot is not the end of the flat season and the first day of racing at Cheltenham today does not mark the start of the National Hunt season but there is no more appropriate moment to switch. There have been highs and lows on the betting front this flat season but overall the former have outweighed the latter. In fact, it has been my most successful season yet as a tipster under the Penworthy pseudonym, with a profit of more than 84 points. It was certainly satisfying to tip the winners of the Derby, Ascot Gold Cup and the Arc, all at decent prices, plus to land two other Royal Ascot winners at 25-1 and 16-1.

As a general betting principle, the idea of ‘horses for courses’ is a good one. It is indisputable that some horses run better at one course than another. This may be because of the nature of the track – undulating or flat, sharp bends or straight – or simply the make-up of the ground itself, particularly if the difference is as striking as between grass and an all-weather artificial surface. I have no idea why DOCKLANDS runs so well at Ascot but there is no doubt he is several lengths better at the Berkshire track than anywhere else in the country. His form figures from seven runs at Ascot now reads: 1132221. Two of his three wins at Ascot came at the royal meeting, no less.

Newmarket trainer Harry Eustace is a master at targeting his best horses at big races. If there were those who did not know it before this year’s Royal Ascot, they certainly knew it afterwards. He landed two winners at the five-day meeting from his relatively-small string: Docklands (put up at 25-1 in this blog) at 14-1 and Time for Sandals at 25-1. One of his near misses at the meeting was Divine Comedy who was a close fifth in the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles despite a troubled run in the home straight. Ever since that run, tomorrow’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch (Newmarket 3.40 p.m.) has been the end-of-season target for this seven-year-old mare.

If you are a horse racing fan but have never been to Longchamp racecourse to watch the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, rectify that at some point and enjoy a long weekend in Paris at the same time. The course, set on the edge of the Bois de Boulogne, is delightful, the crowds for Europe’s biggest flat race are always manageable and, all in all, it’s a wonderful experience. As for this year’s contest (Sunday, 3.05 p.m.), it is open with plenty of foreign horses from Britain, Ireland and Japan trying to prise the race from the grasp of local French trainers, just as British handler Ralph Beckett did a year ago with Bluestocking. The draw for this race is usually hugely influential, with low numbers considerably favoured.

Trainer Jack Channon knows what it takes to win Newmarket’s bet365 Cambridgeshire (tomorrow, 3.40 p.m.) having been assistant to his father, Mick, when the stable won the race three years ago with Majestic. Majestic, now seven and still in the yard that Channon took over from his dad at the start of last year, was 25-1 when he landed the race in 2022 and this is a race that throws up plenty of shocks. Two of the last five winners of the race returned odds of 40-1, one at 25-1 (Majestic) and another at 20-1. Those statistics suggest that, although the two horses at the top of the market, Treble Tee and Fifth Column, have plenty in their favour, those horses’ odds of no better than 5-1 and 7-1 respectively are very skinny for this 24-runner handicap.

The death this week of film legend Robert Redford reminded me of my favourite quotation relating to gambling. It was uttered by his fellow actor Paul Newman, who was Redford’s co-star in two of their greatest films: The Sting and Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. When Newman played the part of ‘Fast Eddie’ Felson in yet another film, The Color of Money, he said: ‘Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.’ I have this quote framed on the wall of my office and read it regularly as an inspiration to finding winners. Moving on to the task in hand: trying to find a weekend winner. I usually like the challenge of big-field handicaps but the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup tomorrow (Ayr 3.35 p.m.