Penworthy

Tomorrow’s Cheltenham Trials Day, as its name suggests, usually throws up plenty of clues to which horses will be winning at the festival on the same course in less than two months’ time. There is no doubt which horse running tomorrow is most likely to triumph at the festival itself and that is Constitution Hill. However, Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten eight-year-old gelding is at odds of around 1-10 tomorrow for the Unibet Hurdle (3 p.m.) and none of his four opponents will trouble him if he runs to his best. So that race is out of bounds as a betting proposition. The Grade 2 Betfair Cleeve Hurdle (3.35 p.m.) over three miles has attracted eight runners and is a much more competitive affair.

This is a big weekend for two of Britain’s best young trainers, both with the Christian name of Harry. Neither will want to come away empty-handed from the next three days of racing because both men are giving racecourse outings to some of the best horses in their respective yards. I will start with Harry Derham, nephew of 14-times champion National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls, and who is no less ambitious than his uncle to make a name for himself. Derham is also astute at picking the best possible races for the equine talent in his care, not being afraid of crossing the Irish Sea and taking on the likes of Willie Mullins and the Gordon Elliott if the right opportunity arises.

The ground staff at Kempton lost their battle against the elements this morning which was a great shame as there would have been a fine card on offer tomorrow if the freezing temperatures had subsided. So, with Kempton abandoned and with the Cheltenham Festival just two months away, I am going to turn my attention today to three ante-post bets, all the suggestions at tasty prices. James Owen is a dual-purpose trainer going places and horses such as Burdett Road have already put him on the map. Owen has a nice bunch of young hurdlers this season including East India Dock, one of the favourites for the Triumph Hurdle on the last day of the Festival. However, odds of just 13-2 on East India Dock for such a competitive contest make zero appeal so far from the race.

The Unibet Veterans' Handicap Chase at Sandown tomorrow (3 p.m.) is a fascinating contest with a first prize of more than £50,000. Any of the nine runners could win if performing to their best but, with the field aged between 11 and 13, most of them are now well past their prime. Sam Brown and Eldorado Allen are the class acts in the field, even now officially rated at 153 and 149 respectively. Chambard is forecast to be the outsider of the field at odds of 20-1, but don’t forget it was only 14 months ago that he easily won the Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase on heavy ground at Aintree.

I have already put up two horses ante-post for today’s Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow (2.50 p.m.) and with mixed results. Monbeg Genius, tipped each way at 20-1 last month, has been steadily backed ever since and, until this morning, was vying for favouritism. Manofthepeople, tipped each way a week ago at 50-1, has not been declared for the race and so that bet is lost. If Monbeg Genius jumps well and runs to the best form that he has displayed over the past two seasons, he will win. His close third to Corach Rambler in the March 2023 running of the Ultima Chase has proved to be elite handicap form and Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill’s eight-year-old gelding is only 4 lbs higher in the official ratings than he was for that race at the Cheltenham Festival.

Dual-purpose trainer Hughie Morrison usually has one of two jumping stars to supplement his talented flat horses at his Berkshire stables. In recent years, Not So Sleepy has been the flag-bearer for the yard over the winter months but he was retired, aged 12, after winning on the level at Newbury in September. If Morrison has a successor to Not So Sleepy, it could come in the form of SECRET SQUIRREL and the five-year-old gelding looks nicely weighted off an official mark of just 126 in tomorrow’s Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (3.35 p.m.). It’s a competitive event over the minimum trip in which Be Aware and Dysart Enos are at the head of the market on the back of their second and third respectively in the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last month.

GABORIOT was my fancy for last weekend’s Boylesports Becher Chase until the weather intervened and the Aintree meeting was cancelled. Joint trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have, however, wasted little time in finding their eight-year-old gelding a new target in the form of a big handicap tomorrow. I am going to stay loyal to Gaboriot when he contests the bet365 Handicap Chase (Doncaster, 2.05 p.m.) over three miles because I think he remains leniently treated off an official mark of 128. I was impressed with his seasonal debut when third in the BoyleSports Grand Sefton Chase over Aintree’s Grand National fences.

The two big races tomorrow, the BoyleSports Becher Chase at Aintree and the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase, could hardly be more different contests. The former is a 12-runner competitive handicap run over three miles and two furlongs on the Grand National course, the latter is an eight-runner Grade 1 race, with all the horses running off the same weight, over a shade under two miles. The Becher (Aintree 2.07 p.m.) is a keen betting contest, while the Tingle Creek (Sandown, 3p.m.) has an odds-on favourite in Jonbon, who has never been out of the first two in 18 runs and, given his consistency, it is difficult to find each-way value elsewhere in the field. I have already put up one horse, Gaboriot, for the Becher.

As regular readers of this column will know, I often like to back horses from up-and-coming yards, rather than the big stables, in the search of value. A progressive horse is often much bigger odds than he (or she) should be simply because it hails from a yard that is rarely in the spotlight. With this in mind, I am hoping that the consistent mare OOH BETTY will outrun her odds tomorrow for the Dorset yard of Ben Clarke in the ultra-competitive Coral Racing Club Intermediate Handicap Hurdle, better known as the ‘Gerry Fielden’ (Newbury, 2.25 p.m.). There was plenty to like about her last run of the season at Cheltenham in April when she was not disgraced behind Jeremy Scott’s Festival winning mare, Golden Ace.

There are two big handicap chases looming over the next fortnight: the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury and the BoyleSports Becher Chase at Aintree run over the Grand National course. I am hoping there are good ante-post bets to be had in both races. The Coral Gold Cup, still known as the ‘Hennessy’ by many older racegoers after its former sponsor, takes place a week tomorrow and the runner I am keen to get onside is BROADWAY BOY for the Twiston-Davies yard. Trainer Nigel has one son Willy as his assistant and another son Sam as his stable jockey and they are all convinced they have a horse to go to war with.

Cheltenham’s three-day November meeting, starting today, will take place on much faster ground that normal and so anticipate plenty of non-runners if, as expected, there is very little rain over the weekend. This is usually a meeting at which soft-ground horses have their preferred conditions but that’s definitely not the case this time. The big race tomorrow is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 p.m.), a handicap chase over two miles four furlongs that has attracted a field of 15 runners. I had expected to put up Ga Law who I backed at tasty prices to win this very race two years ago. However, his odds have contracted all week and a current top price of 13-2 seems short for such a competitive race even though he is guaranteed to love this quick surface.

The unusually dry autumn means it makes sense to favour horses with a preference for good ground when it comes to the racing at Wincanton and Aintree tomorrow. Field sizes continue to be smaller than usual because many trainers do not want to risk injuring their charges on quick ground at the start of the season. ALL THE GLORY is a likeable sort who will get her favoured conditions when she makes her seasonal debut in the BetMGM Richard Barber Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle at Wincanton (1.45 p.m.). She was impressive when she destroyed a decent 17-runner field at Newbury in March and, although her three subsequent runs were moderate, she may by then have paid the price for her busy season. Tomorrow’s trip of just over 2 miles and 5 furlongs should be perfect for her.

Dashel Drasher is just the sort of jump horse that I love to watch. A front runner who wears his heart on his sleeve, he will tomorrow embark on his eighth competitive season for his astute Somerset handler Jeremy Scott. Aged 11, Dashel Drasher will make his seasonal debut in the Grade 2 bet365 Hurdle – better known as The West Yorkshire Hurdle – at Wetherby (2.22 p.m.), going off at likely odds of around 4-1. However, there are plenty of negatives for the horse tomorrow notably that the ground is good and he prefers a much softer surface. He also has to give 6 lbs or more to all of his six rivals. It’s impossible to rule him out of the contest but I prefer to look elsewhere for the winner.

I would normally stay tipping on the flat for a couple more weeks but this weekend’s Newbury and Doncaster cards make no appeal, gambling wise, while the return of a Saturday jump card at Cheltenham is hugely welcome. On balance, I prefer betting on national hunt racing because it’s easier to get attached to the horses that are racing year after year – and to get to know their preferences, their dislikes and their quirks. I always bet with caution in the early weeks of a new season because it is impossible to know which horses are fit and which are not However, I always bet with caution in the early weeks of a new season because it is impossible to know which horses are fit and which are not, especially when they are making their seasonal debuts.

Foreign-trained horses are often overpriced when they come on raids to Britain, particularly when they are housed with the smaller stables. This may well be the case again tomorrow when I expect horses from the other side of the English Channel to make their mark on Champions Day at Ascot. Several French handlers will be looking for revenge from two weekends ago when the home trainers went down by eight wins to three against their British and Irish counterparts in feature races over ‘Arc weekend’ at Longchamp. The more rain that falls tomorrow, the better for the Jerome Reynier-trained FACTEUR CHEVAL in the Group 1 Qipco Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile (Ascot, 3.15 p.m.).

After a week of rain, the official ground conditions for tomorrow’s cards at Newmarket and Haydock both have ‘heavy’ in the description, with a little more of the wet stuff forecast too. If I have learnt only one thing from my decades as a punter, it is to bet with caution when the ground turns into a quagmire. Yes, of course, it is best to back horses that have won or run well on ground described as ‘heavy’ but it is not as simple as that, or even those with a basic knowledge of the form book would soon be rich. When the ground is really, really soft and the mud is flying, it is often accompanied by a series of unpredictable results.

It’s been all of 49 years since a horse trained in Scotland won the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup, one of the classiest sprint handicaps of the season. However, I am hoping that trend ends tomorrow and that a horse in the care of genial Jim Goldie lands the winning pot of more than £92,000. Goldie, who trains in Uplawmoor, East Renfrewshire, and who loves to plunder big races in his native Scotland, has two excellent chances of winning the race (Ayr, 3.35 p.m.) that has attracted its usual maximum field of 25 runners. Jordan Electrics is a typical Goldie runner in that he is a veteran, at eight years old, and yet somehow the canny handler has got staggering improvement from the horse. Jordan Electrics started the season in April off a modest official rating of 72.

Only seven runners are due to line up for the final Classic of the flat season, the Group 1 Betfred St Leger. Unsurprisingly, the small field at Doncaster tomorrow (3.40 p.m.) is dominated by runners trained in Ireland by Co Tipperary maestro Aidan O’Brien. I had not expected to bet in the race but the sponsors are paying three places and so I can’t resist an each way dabble Of O’Brien’s three runners, Illinois is top rated and has a favourite’s chance because we know, from his Royal Ascot win in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase in June, that he will stay tomorrow’s trip of more than one mile and six furlongs.

My favourite flat handicap of the season is the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch at Newmarket on 12 October. I have a good betting record in the race but this year the ante-post market is complicated by the fact that the brilliant Irish trainer Willie Mullins has entered no less than ten horses in the race. As always, the Irish runners, particularly those from the Mullins yard, are likely to have a big say in the outcome of this marathon contest which is run over two miles and two furlongs, and which therefore attracts lots of dual-purpose horses with decent hurdling form. The main problem is that Mullins keeps his cards close to his chest on his race plans and some of his best staying handicappers will go for the more valuable Friends of the Curragh Irish Cesarewitch two weekends earlier.

Tamfana is just the sort of short-priced favourite that I love to take on. Yes, of course she might win tomorrow’s Sky Bet Atalanta Stakes (Sandown, 2.25 p.m.). After all, she was fourth in the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May and, with more luck in running, she would probably have won that day. However, her two runs since then have been more moderate and her French handler David Menuisier, who trains in West Sussex, seems unsure what is his three-year-old filly’s best distance. Last time she failed to stay a mile and a half on soft ground at Longchamp and so tomorrow she reverts to the Guineas trip of a mile. All in all, her current odds of around even money are terribly skinny for a horse that has yet to win this season from four starts.