Penworthy

Both favourites in the two major races at Ascot tomorrow are going to take a lot of beating if running up to their best form. At the odds on offer, however, neither makes any appeal as a good bet but it is no easy task finding a horse to beat them. The French raider Calandagan will try to win the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3.35 p.m.) for a second successive year. He needed to be both talented and courageous to wear down the Andrew Balding-trained Kalpana in this race 12 months ago and he will be in his element on the fast ground tomorrow. However, odds of no bigger than 13-8 look skinny enough given the quality of the opposition in this nine-runner Grade 1 contest over a mile and a half.

This weekend’s racing makes no appeal betting wise and so I am instead going to put up three ante-post bets in the hope of landing a big-priced winner for the column over the next month or so. The first bet is in Europe’s richest handicap on the flat, the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap at York on 22 August. This is a race in which Irish maestro Willie Mullins, who won the contest last year with Ethical Diamond, has no less than ten entries. Mullins keeps his cards so close to his chest that I wouldn’t want to bet on which of his horses will run let alone which might win the race. Instead, I prefer the chances of an exposed British trained-runner in DAIQUIRI BAY.

It is so-called ‘Super Saturday’ tomorrow with high-class racing at Newmarket, York and Ascot, and that’s good news for some of the lesser-known jockeys as it means they get an opportunity to ride fancied horses in some of the biggest races. That’s because the likes of Ryan Moore, Oisin Murphy, William Buick, Tom Marquand and Billy Loughnane can only be at one meeting at any one time. Rob Hornby is a hugely talented jockey but he often has to play understudy to Oisin Murphy when it comes to riding trainer Andrew Balding’s best horses. I am hoping Hornby can ride a winner tomorrow when he is reunited with MISS ATTITUDE in the John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (York, 3.12 p.m.).

Some out-of-form sprinters head the market at Sandown tomorrow for the Group 3 Coral Charge (1.50 p.m.). If the likes of Asfoora, Rumstar and Shagraan return to form, they will be tough to beat, but that’s quite a big 'if' given their lacklustre recent racetrack performances. On the face of it, trainer Jack Channon’s GETREADYTORUMBLE also has moderate form this season but he has not had much luck in running in two of his last three starts. Notably, last time out, he reared leaving the stalls, losing several lengths, in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Newcastle stages some quality all-weather racing this weekend, the highlight of which is tomorrow’s JenningsBet Northumberland Plate (3.15 p.m.). As I feared in last week’s column, my main fancy for the race has not made the “cut” and is instead in the consolation race. Cerulean Bay was one of the many eyecatchers at Royal Ascot despite being out of the places There are two main reasons why the quality of this meeting, run on an artificial Tapeta surface, is particularly high this year. Firstly, the generous level of prize money – the Plate, for example, is worth more than £77,000 to winning connections. Secondly, a lot of trainers whose horses prefer soft ground are observing the current heatwave and concluding a race on the all-weather is better than no run at all.

Newmarket handler James Tate has his string in sparkling form and he doesn’t waste bullets by sending horses to Royal Ascot unless they have a chance of winning. Tate has enjoyed six winners from 19 runners over the past fortnight for a winning strike rate of 32 per cent. His only runner so far this week at Royal Ascot, Blue Rc, was second in the Royal Hunt Cup at 28-1 to a well-handicapped horse in Rogue Diplomat. Tate doesn’t waste bullets by sending horses to Royal Ascot unless they have a chance of winning I think his horse, DARN HOT GALLOP has a big chance today of winning the Sandringham Stakes (5 p.m.). She is three wins from four races, her only defeat coming when she was outclassed in the Betfred 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in early May.

Royal Ascot gets underway at 2.30 p.m. today with the Queen Anne Stakes, a fascinating Group 1 race over the straight mile. DOCKLANDS did this column a good turn this time last year when winning this contest after being put up at 25-1. Although he is not going to be anything like those odds this time, I am going to stay loyal to this likeable six-year-old. Admittedly this year’s contest is a hotter event than a year ago and the likes of Notable Speech, Opera Ballo and More Thunder are officially rated superior to trainer Harry Eustace’s course specialist. However, Docklands overcame both a slow start and his rider dropping his whip in last year’s race, and he comes into the meeting in good form.

Race meetings at courses including York, Sandown and Chester offer decent fare for horse racing enthusiasts this weekend but many will already be looking forward to Royal Ascot’s five-day extravaganza beginning on Tuesday. York, in particular, stages some competitive handicaps tomorrow including the 22-runner Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap (3.35 p.m.) over a distance of six furlongs. Ed Walker’s Golden Brown, who is a nice ride for an apprentice, looks overpriced for this contest. The three-year-old gelding has been slowly getting better with racing, finally scoring on his ninth run when victorious at Salisbury last month from a poor draw.

With the modern-day racehorse increasingly bred for speed, it is likely that several of tomorrow’s runners at Epsom in the Betfred Derby (4 p.m.) will not truly stay the race distance of a mile and a half. The fact that this year’s contest is going to be run with plenty of cut in the ground means that, unless there is an unusually slow pace, it will take a proper three-year-old staying colt to win this prestigious Grade 1 race. After his 1-2-3 in the French Derby last weekend, Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien is the likeliest trainer to win tomorrow’s Classic with one of his four runners, but most realistically with either Benvenuto Cellini or Pierre Bonnard.

Trainer Ed Walker has long had a high opinion of CELANDINE so it was disappointing to see her miss the break on her seasonal debut in a listed race over six furlongs at Newmarket earlier this month. Given her tardy start, her run when fifth behind Flora of Bermuda showed she still has talent and there could be more to come this season as the horse, a former winner of the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York as a two-year-old, is still only four years old. Tomorrow Celandine will have her favourable fast ground conditions but it will be even more important that she gets away sharply as the listed Betway Achilles Stakes (Carlisle 2.33 p.m.) is over the minimum trip of five furlongs.

Newmarket-based Robert Cowell is known as the ‘sprint king’ for a reason: for many years he has been a masterful trainer of horses that race over the minimum trips of five furlongs and six furlongs. It was telling that in an interview for his Racing Post Weekender stable tour last week, he indicated he would rather train another winner of the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot – now the King Charles III Stakes – than the Epsom Derby. The King’s Stand is a race that he won in 2011 with Prohibit but it’s probably fair to say that every other trainer in the country would much prefer a Derby winner on their CV.

MORE THUNDER was one of last season’s most improved flat horses, starting off as a moderate handicapper officially rated at 87 and finishing up, after four victories, with a lofty rating of 117. At Newbury tomorrow, he steps up in distance to a mile for the first time when he is pitched into tough Grade 1 company in the Boyle Sports Lockinge Stakes (2.35 p.m.). Five of the ten runners in the contest have higher ratings than him and several of those at the top of the market also have the benefit of a prep run.

Tony Martin, the shrewd Irish trainer, loves to take aim at today’s Ladbrokes Chester Cup and its consolation race and I can see his three runners in the two races making their mark. Back Peaky Blinder 1 point each way at 8-1 with bet365, paying five places. ZANNDABAD has not won on the flat for three seasons but he is down to a nice mark of 91 in the Chester Cup (3.05 p.m.). He ran a huge race in this contest in 2024 when third to Zoffee after meeting trouble in running from his double-figure draw in stall 10. Today he is only marginally better drawn in stall 9 but we know he handles the track and the good ground, plus Clifford Lee is an interesting jockey booking too.

Trainer George Boughey is convinced that his horse Bow Echo has a big chance of landing tomorrow’s Betfred 2000 Guineas (Newmarket, 3.35 p.m.) after a ‘faultless’ preparation. This unbeaten three-year-old colt is a course and distance winner who is proven on fast ground so he is going to take a lot of beating in the first classic of the 2026 flat season. Irish handler Aidan O’ Brien’s only runner Gstaad is officially the highest-rated horse in the 15-runner field and, with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he also looks likely to run a big race in which the first prize for winning connections is nearly £300,000. Gstaad was heavily backed yesterday meaning he and Bow Echo are now vying for favouritism in this one-mile contest.

It is disappointing that Sandown’s big handicap chase tomorrow, the bet365 Gold Cup (3.30 p.m.), has attracted a field of only 14 runners but this is an intriguing race nonetheless with several improving seven-year-olds taking on some older, more experienced horses. LIVIN ON LUCO has run four times this season, three of them good performances The younger generation are well represented at the top of the market with seven-year-old geldings Havaila, Montregard, Ask Brewster and the Irish raider Road To Home all having big chances of landing the first prize of just under £100,000. My marginal preference is for two eight-year-olds from two in-form British yards.

The respective favourites have won this year’s Boyle Sports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse and the Randox Grand National at Aintree, and that trend could well continue at Ayr tomorrow in the Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35 p.m.) The forecast favourite tomorrow is the Irish-trained raider Kim Roque, who comes here off the back of a big run at the Cheltenham Festival last month, with fourth in the Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup. However, odds of no bigger than 5-1 are skinny enough in this 21-runner contest for a first prize of more than £112,000. Last weekend’s marathon contest at Aintree proved that few chasers truly stay four miles or more. There were plenty of horses in with a chance two fences out who clearly did not last home.

The whole nature of the Randox Grand National (Aintree, tomorrow 4 p.m.) has changed significantly in recent years and it is not just about the fences becoming smaller and safer. A race that once favoured horses below 11 stone in the weights now favours the classier horses that are carrying more than 11 stone. Here are just two statistics that rather prove that point. In 2005, Hedgehunter became the first horse since Corbiere 22 years earlier to carry more than 11 stone to victory in this famous, marathon handicap chase. However, in the last two years of the race, since the maximum number of runners was reduced from 40 to 34, only one horse has finished in the first four with less than 11 stone.

Ever since MONBEG GENIUS finished a close third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival three years ago, it looked only a matter of time before he landed a big handicap. The form of that race could hardly have worked out better. The winner Corach Rambler, running off a rating of just 146 that day, went on to land the Randox Grand National a month later and was eventually rated at 162. The second horse from the Ultima in March 2023, Fastorslow, then running off a rating of 150, won the Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup a month later, beating none other than Galopin Des Champs off level weights. Fastorslow was eventually rated 171. Yet Monbeg Genius, trained by Jonjo O’Neill and his son A.J.

The arrival of a new flat season is exciting but, for betting purposes, I prefer to stick to the jumps. On the flat in late March and April, it is so hard to know which trainers have their horses fit enough to do themselves justice and which do not. Since most handlers are still in the dark on their horses’ racecourse fitness, what chance do punters have? This weekend’s National Hunt fare is, in all honesty, modest so instead I will try to identify some value over the two big meetings that are on the horizon linked to the two Grand Nationals at Aintree and Fairyhouse. First up is a long shot for the Randox Topham Handicap Case on Friday, 10 April, a race run over the Grand National brush fences the day before the big race itself.

Trainer Ruth Jefferson is one of the many northern trainers supporting Kelso’s big fixture tomorrow, when the Scottish course hosts day two of the Racing Post Go North weekend.  Last year her talented mare, Lavida Adiva won the Ladbrokes-sponsored Mares’ Hurdle at the meeting. Since then, that horse has gone on to greater things, finishing second earlier this month in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  Tomorrow Jefferson runs her eight-year-old gelding CAPTAIN BUTLER in the BetWright Handicap Hurdle (1.30 p.m.) and, although this horse will never be in the class of Lavida Adiva, he is no back number.