Penworthy

The respective favourites have won this year’s Boyle Sports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse and the Randox Grand National at Aintree, and that trend could well continue at Ayr tomorrow in the Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35 p.m.) The forecast favourite tomorrow is the Irish-trained raider Kim Roque, who comes here off the back of a big run at the Cheltenham Festival last month, with fourth in the Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup. However, odds of no bigger than 5-1 are skinny enough in this 21-runner contest for a first prize of more than £112,000. Last weekend’s marathon contest at Aintree proved that few chasers truly stay four miles or more. There were plenty of horses in with a chance two fences out who clearly did not last home.

The whole nature of the Randox Grand National (Aintree, tomorrow 4 p.m.) has changed significantly in recent years and it is not just about the fences becoming smaller and safer. A race that once favoured horses below 11 stone in the weights now favours the classier horses that are carrying more than 11 stone. Here are just two statistics that rather prove that point. In 2005, Hedgehunter became the first horse since Corbiere 22 years earlier to carry more than 11 stone to victory in this famous, marathon handicap chase. However, in the last two years of the race, since the maximum number of runners was reduced from 40 to 34, only one horse has finished in the first four with less than 11 stone.

Ever since MONBEG GENIUS finished a close third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival three years ago, it looked only a matter of time before he landed a big handicap. The form of that race could hardly have worked out better. The winner Corach Rambler, running off a rating of just 146 that day, went on to land the Randox Grand National a month later and was eventually rated at 162. The second horse from the Ultima in March 2023, Fastorslow, then running off a rating of 150, won the Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup a month later, beating none other than Galopin Des Champs off level weights. Fastorslow was eventually rated 171. Yet Monbeg Genius, trained by Jonjo O’Neill and his son A.J.

The arrival of a new flat season is exciting but, for betting purposes, I prefer to stick to the jumps. On the flat in late March and April, it is so hard to know which trainers have their horses fit enough to do themselves justice and which do not. Since most handlers are still in the dark on their horses’ racecourse fitness, what chance do punters have? This weekend’s National Hunt fare is, in all honesty, modest so instead I will try to identify some value over the two big meetings that are on the horizon linked to the two Grand Nationals at Aintree and Fairyhouse. First up is a long shot for the Randox Topham Handicap Case on Friday, 10 April, a race run over the Grand National brush fences the day before the big race itself.

Trainer Ruth Jefferson is one of the many northern trainers supporting Kelso’s big fixture tomorrow, when the Scottish course hosts day two of the Racing Post Go North weekend.  Last year her talented mare, Lavida Adiva won the Ladbrokes-sponsored Mares’ Hurdle at the meeting. Since then, that horse has gone on to greater things, finishing second earlier this month in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  Tomorrow Jefferson runs her eight-year-old gelding CAPTAIN BUTLER in the BetWright Handicap Hurdle (1.30 p.m.) and, although this horse will never be in the class of Lavida Adiva, he is no back number.

It’s surprising that champion jumps jockey Sean Bowen is still looking for his first winner at the Cheltenham Festival and so it would be fitting if he rode it for his former babysitter, trainer Rebecca Curtis, in today’s Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (4 p.m.) The Grade 1 race over more than three miles and two furlongs is the highlight of the whole week, four days of superb racing which, however, continue to be blighted by problems at the start that have frustrated jockeys and many others besides. Hopefully, Bowen’s mount in the Gold Cup, Haiti Couleurs, put up each way at 14-1 two months ago, will get away at the front of the field and stay there. This nine-year-old gelding is a game front runner and a superb jumper so he is always going to be a difficult horse to pass.

Wiltshire trainer Emma Lavelle knows what it takes to land the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle having won it seven years ago. Her pride and joy, Paisley Park, then aged seven, went off the 11-8 favourite in March 2019 having already won all four previous starts that season.  MA SHANTOU, also trained by Lavelle, has a similar profile to Paisley Park except he has won only three of his four starts this season, bombing out for no apparent reason at Haydock. However, the seven-year-old gelding clearly loves Cheltenham having won three times from three runs at the course this season.  Today’s Stayers Hurdle (3.20 p.m.

Irish maestro Willie Mullins runs a duo of talented two-mile chasers today in the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (4 p.m.), the highlight of day two of the Cheltenham Festival.  However, both Majborough and Il Etait Temps have displayed jumping frailties and so neither appeals at their respective odds. The former will almost certainly win if he jumps as well as he did last time out when landing the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase at Leopardstown, but that is not guaranteed.

The decision by connections to run Lossiemouth in today’s Unibet Champion Hurdle (4 p.m.), rather than the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle on Thursday, is good for racing but not ideal for my two ante-post bets in the big race, the highlight of day one of the Cheltenham Festival.  Irish trainer Willie Mullins’ talented mare is unbeaten in her three visits to the Cheltenham Festival, winning a Triumph Hurdle and two Mares’ Hurdles. This will be her stiffest task to date as she is probably even better over two-and-a-half miles than today’s trip of just over two miles. However, she is still going to be very hard to beat today, especially with cheekpieces fitted for the first time.

Mondo Man and Wreckless Eric head the market for tomorrow’s big race at Sandown, the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (2.27 p.m.), and a good case can be made for each of them landing the spoils. Mondo Man, trained by the father and son Moore team, is well handicapped over hurdles based on his flat form and, as a five-year-old gelding, his best days are surely ahead of him. However, odds of around 3-1 for a 22-runner handicap make zero appeal. Wreckless Eric, trained by the father and son O’Neill team, is well handicapped based on his run in this race a year ago when he was beaten only half a length by Go Dante, who will also be in the field tomorrow.

Kelso’s hurdles course is a specialist track – left-handed, sharp and undulating. Some horses handle it well, others do not. Cracking Rhapsody most definitely falls into the former category because tomorrow he will try to win the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (2.55 p.m.) for the third year in a row. His form this season is modest but Ewan Whillans looks to have trained him to peak tomorrow and he can race off an official mark of just 4 lbs higher than his winning rating from last year. He has every chance of landing the hat-trick but he is likely to go off at around 5-1 favourite so he is not for me at those odds.

The last two winners of the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Eider Handicap will try to win the race for a second time at Newcastle tomorrow (2:43 p.m.). Knockanore, who has showed little since his win twelve months ago, and Anglers Crag, who has switched stables since his win in 2024, both have strong chances of victory if running up to their best form. This marathon contest of nearly 4 miles 2 furlongs is not for the faint of heart although this year Newcastle seems to have missed the worst of the rain as the going is currently 'good to soft'. This race is often run on 'soft' or 'heavy' ground with the runners well strung on by the winning post.

There are at least three runners at Haydock tomorrow hoping to win the William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (3.15 p.m.) because victory would mean they have a much better chance of getting into the Randox Grand National on April 11. I am sweet on the chances of trainer Jamie Snowden’s LA CONQUIERE That’s because the weights for the big Aintree spectacular will be announced this coming week and the handicapper can assess all the runners on their performances up to and including tomorrow. An official rating of around 145 will almost certainly be needed in order to get into the 34-strong field.

With more rain to come, the ground at Newbury tomorrow is going to be really testing for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (3.20 p.m.). That will make the result more of a lottery because several of the horses at the top of the market would not ideally want it looking like a bog. Those preferring a sounder surface may include my long-term tip for the race, Dance and Glance, put up each way at 20-1. He does have form on soft ground but Newbury 'heavy' is a different kettle of fish altogether. Hot Fuss did this column a good turn, winning at a double-figure price at Windsor three weeks ago and he is capable of defying a 5 lbs penalty tomorrow.

With two of the big races on Cheltenham Trials Day tomorrow attracting four runners, I am looking at the lower-profile contests for my suggested bets. Without each-way betting, I have no desire to take on odds-on shots Grey Dawning in the Grade 2 Betfair Cotswold Chase (2.25 p.m.) or Sir Gino in the Unibet Hurdle (3 p.m.). If Jagwar is as good as connections think he is – the horse’s ultimate aim is the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – then he will need to win tomorrow’s Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (1.15 p.m.) off an official mark of 149. He’s probably the right favourite on form and expectation but his joint trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have still not peaked with their horses this season and I would prefer to look elsewhere.

Lambourn trainer Jamie Snowden continues to enjoy a stellar season in which he has landed some big-race prizes. His general statistics are impressive too: 62 winners from just 218 runners for a strike rate of 28 per cent. Snowden has plenty of interesting runners at Ascot and Windsor this weekend and I would be surprised if he did not have a winner or two over the next three days. One of his Ascot runners tomorrow, in the in the BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (2.53 p.m.), is MARCHE D’ALIGRE who looks overpriced even though this is a competitive contest. This five-year-old gelding was backed into favouritism last month for a handicap hurdle at Sandown and, although he was only second that day, his run can be upgraded given he made a terrible hash of the third obstacle.

With the cold snap likely to play havoc with the weekend race cards in Britain, it seems more sensible for me to take an early look at the Cheltenham Festival from an ante-post point of view. It is stating the obvious but the number one rule of ante-post betting is to do all you can to back a horse that is going to run in your chosen race – in this case one of the contests at the Cotswolds racecourse in two months’ time. For me that rules out most of the high-class novice hurdles and novice chasers in which Irish trainer Willie Mullins and other top yards like to shuffle their pack with different horses being allocated to different races of different distances right up to the 48-hour declaration stages. I will look elsewhere for two ante-post bets.

After so much superb racing over the festive period, it is disappointing to see such small fields at Sandown for tomorrow’s main card in Britain. Between five and 11 runners are due to take part in the seven races at the Esher course. The quicker-than-usual ground conditions for the time of year partly account for the small turn-outs. The Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase final (3.05 p.m.), over three miles, sees Dorset trainer Anthony Honeyball field one third of the nine runners. One of his horses, Gustavian, has been aimed at this race for some time as has Dan Skelton’s runner Le Milos, despite some indifferent form this season.

The Gloucestershire yard of Ben Pauling has gone from strength to strength in recent seasons and today could see it reach a new high when the trainer sends his stable star to Kempton to compete in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (2.30 p.m.). THE JUKEBOX MAN will face seven talented rivals, including two hot-pots from the yard of Irish maestro Willie Mullins, when he runs in the Grade 1 contest over a distance of three miles. The Jukebox Man has plenty to find on official ratings with almost all his rivals but Pauling remains quietly confident that this lightly-raced seven-year-old gelding, owned by former football manager Harry Redknapp, is up to the task. Unusually, Mullins has brought over not one but two of his best staying chasers for this race.

Jockey James Best rode into the history books yesterday when he partnered Britain’s longest-priced winner, courtesy of 300-1 shot Blowers, who landed the first race at Exeter in attritional conditions. The horse was named after retired cricket commentator Henry Blofeld, who is nicknamed 'Blowers'. Tomorrow, I am hoping the same jockey can ride arguably his favourite horse to victory at more conventional odds when he partners My Silver Lining in Haydock’s Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2.05 p.m.). This nine-year-old grey mare gave Best, who hopefully would not be offended at being described as a 'journeyman jockey', his career highlight when the pair won the Wigley Group Classic Chase at Warwick in January last year.