Penworthy

Strong course form is always a major plus for horses contesting races at Cheltenham, whether it is at the Festival in March or any other meeting at the track. The trouble when evaluating the merits of the runners in the tomorrow’s big race, The Support the Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase, (1.50 p.m.), is that all three horses vying for favouritism have run big races at Cheltenham. So, too, have several of the others in the race so it is difficult to rule out many of the 11 runners. Jagwar, Hoe Joly Smoke and Vincenzo are at the top of the market and of the three the first mentioned has the most potential to become a graded horse. However, the poor form of his yard means I would not want to take odds of 7-2 on Jagwar.

Sam Thomas was a talented jockey – riding Denman to victory in the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup – but he is an even better trainer. His winning strike rate with his runners is phenomenal, and this doesn’t simply come from picking off low-quality races. Thomas is never happier than plundering decent prize money at the big meetings. This jumps’ season he has only had 30 runners yet 12 of them have won for a strike rate of 40 percent. His strike rate over the past four seasons has been at over 20 per cent which is no mean feat for any handler. Thomas’s biggest owner is Welsh businessman Dai Walters, who understands racing inside and out. He is a dream owner, too, in that he is supportive of his trainer and patient when, inevitably, some of his string pick up injuries.

Trainers Harry Derham and Emma Lavelle will almost certainly leave their mark at Newbury over the next two days. Whereas Britain’s most successful trainers target the Cheltenham Festival in March with their elite horses, this talented pair are more realistic and aim their best horses at this two-day meeting. For both handlers it is their local track, prize money is good and the racecourse is fair to horses so there are plenty of reasons for wanting to single out the meeting. The problem from a punting point of view is which of their horses to back. Derham is due to have six runners over the two days, while Lavelle is due to have no less than nine over the same period. I will start with today’s card.

Herefordshire trainer Tom Symonds has his string in fine form with four winners from his last eight runners for a strike rate of 50 per cent over the past fortnight. Even his supposed no-hoper Gaelic Saint comfortably outran her odds at Warwick yesterday when second at 50-1 in a mares’ novices’ hurdle. Tomorrow one of Symonds’s stable stars NAVAJO INDY will try to keep up the good work for the yard at Haydock when he contests the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2.25 p.m.) in search of a first prize to winning connections of nearly £57,000.

Fairly heavy rain fell at Cheltenham overnight and there is a lot more to come today. If there is anything near the predicted 30mm of the wet stuff over 24 hours, the ground could easily turn to heavy which, whether racing is over jumps or the flat, tends to make the results something of a lottery. Of course, punters have to concentrate on horses that have won or run well in very soft conditions but it is not always as simple as that. Today’s Grade 2 Schloer Chase (2.55 p.m.) is an intriguing contest and sees the return of Jonbon, who is trying to win this race for the third year running. Nicky Henderson’s admirable chaser will not mind the soft ground but he has never been his best at Cheltenham.

The first race of the season over the Grand National fences at Aintree takes place tomorrow when 17 runners are due to line up for the William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2.40 p.m.). A good case can be made for the first three in the betting: King Turgeon, White Rhino and Johnnywho. The former won this race a year ago before showing further improvement later in the season, whereas the other two have clearly been targeted at this contest for some time and are potential improvers. If one of them wins at around 5-1, then so be it but I would prefer to look for value elsewhere. At first glance, OUR POWER was not an immediate pick for this race having been running well at distances of up to four miles last season, whereas tomorrow’s contest is over only two miles five furlongs.

The results of last weekend’s races provided a reminder that it is impossible to know which horses are fit enough to do themselves justice on their first runs of the season. Several trainers sent their horses to Cheltenham thinking they would run well on their seasonal debut only to be disappointed. Three horses tipped in this column a week ago were among those to under-perform first time out. So this weekend I am going to be more cautious. One horse that has already had a run this season, and a winning one at that, is INDEMNITY in the 12-runner Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (Ascot, tomorrow 3.10 p.m.). This improving five-year-old gelding is a consistent performer and he is now on a hat-trick.

The time seems right to move from the flat to the jumps for tipping purposes. Qipco-sponsored Champions Day at Ascot is not the end of the flat season and the first day of racing at Cheltenham today does not mark the start of the National Hunt season but there is no more appropriate moment to switch. There have been highs and lows on the betting front this flat season but overall the former have outweighed the latter. In fact, it has been my most successful season yet as a tipster under the Penworthy pseudonym, with a profit of more than 84 points. It was certainly satisfying to tip the winners of the Derby, Ascot Gold Cup and the Arc, all at decent prices, plus to land two other Royal Ascot winners at 25-1 and 16-1.

As a general betting principle, the idea of ‘horses for courses’ is a good one. It is indisputable that some horses run better at one course than another. This may be because of the nature of the track – undulating or flat, sharp bends or straight – or simply the make-up of the ground itself, particularly if the difference is as striking as between grass and an all-weather artificial surface. I have no idea why DOCKLANDS runs so well at Ascot but there is no doubt he is several lengths better at the Berkshire track than anywhere else in the country. His form figures from seven runs at Ascot now reads: 1132221. Two of his three wins at Ascot came at the royal meeting, no less.

Newmarket trainer Harry Eustace is a master at targeting his best horses at big races. If there were those who did not know it before this year’s Royal Ascot, they certainly knew it afterwards. He landed two winners at the five-day meeting from his relatively-small string: Docklands (put up at 25-1 in this blog) at 14-1 and Time for Sandals at 25-1. One of his near misses at the meeting was Divine Comedy who was a close fifth in the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles despite a troubled run in the home straight. Ever since that run, tomorrow’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch (Newmarket 3.40 p.m.) has been the end-of-season target for this seven-year-old mare.

If you are a horse racing fan but have never been to Longchamp racecourse to watch the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, rectify that at some point and enjoy a long weekend in Paris at the same time. The course, set on the edge of the Bois de Boulogne, is delightful, the crowds for Europe’s biggest flat race are always manageable and, all in all, it’s a wonderful experience. As for this year’s contest (Sunday, 3.05 p.m.), it is open with plenty of foreign horses from Britain, Ireland and Japan trying to prise the race from the grasp of local French trainers, just as British handler Ralph Beckett did a year ago with Bluestocking. The draw for this race is usually hugely influential, with low numbers considerably favoured.

Trainer Jack Channon knows what it takes to win Newmarket’s bet365 Cambridgeshire (tomorrow, 3.40 p.m.) having been assistant to his father, Mick, when the stable won the race three years ago with Majestic. Majestic, now seven and still in the yard that Channon took over from his dad at the start of last year, was 25-1 when he landed the race in 2022 and this is a race that throws up plenty of shocks. Two of the last five winners of the race returned odds of 40-1, one at 25-1 (Majestic) and another at 20-1. Those statistics suggest that, although the two horses at the top of the market, Treble Tee and Fifth Column, have plenty in their favour, those horses’ odds of no better than 5-1 and 7-1 respectively are very skinny for this 24-runner handicap.

The death this week of film legend Robert Redford reminded me of my favourite quotation relating to gambling. It was uttered by his fellow actor Paul Newman, who was Redford’s co-star in two of their greatest films: The Sting and Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. When Newman played the part of ‘Fast Eddie’ Felson in yet another film, The Color of Money, he said: ‘Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.’ I have this quote framed on the wall of my office and read it regularly as an inspiration to finding winners. Moving on to the task in hand: trying to find a weekend winner. I usually like the challenge of big-field handicaps but the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup tomorrow (Ayr 3.35 p.m.

It is the last of the five British classic races tomorrow – the Group 1 Betfred St Leger at Doncaster (3.40 p.m.) over one mile and six furlongs. The race has attracted a line-up of only seven runners, which normally means just two places on offer from bookmakers. If this had been the case tomorrow, it would have made each way betting unattractive and I would have given the race a miss from a betting point of view. However, at least three bookmakers are offering three places for each-way thieves like me which means there might be some value to be found. Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien is responsible for three of the four runners at the top of the market: Scandinavia, Lambourn and STAY TRUE.

The ‘autumn double’ refers to the two big handicaps run at Newmarket in late September and mid-October. The bet365 Cambridgeshire is a cavalry charge run over a straight one mile one furlong while the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch is a test of stamina run over twice that distance. The races could hardly be more different in nature but for generations optimistic punters have tried to land a big price double by choosing the winning horse in each contest: the former is run this year on 27 September, the latter on 11 October. Since it is my favourite flat race handicap of the year, I will deal with the Cesarewitch first. Irish trainers have won six of the last seven runnings of the race, often with dual-purpose horses – that’s ones that run on both the flat and over jumps.

It’s always pleasing when the good guys do well in any aspect of life and in the racing world one man who is definitely falls into that category is Lambourn handler Jonny Portman. A friend of mine, who was a house guest at the trainer’s home for just one night a few years ago, observed Portman’s dedication to his horses. At dinner, the host’s chair was vacant for much of the evening as he made a last tour of his 45-strong string, presumably doing the equivalent of tucking his horses up in bed and reading them a bedtime story. Early the next morning, Portman took my friend on to the gallops and talked through the characteristics and quirks of all of his horses as if they were his children. Just to be clear though, Portman is a devoted family man as well as a talented trainer.

The big sprint races of the season have repeatedly thrown up surprise results, most notably when 66-1 shot No Half Measures landed the Group 1 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes at Newmarket last month over six furlongs. So, with no horse able to dominate the sprint division this summer, it makes no sense to take a short price on any horse for this afternoon’s Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (3.35 p.m.) run over five furlongs at York. I was tempted to put up Richard Hughes’ three-year-old filly Sayidah Dariyan after her fine run at the course last month when landing the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes, but odds of no bigger than 7-1 means I will look elsewhere for value.

Ripon’s sprint course is unique with its many undulations and so it usually pays to side with a horse that has strong course form. Furthermore, tomorrow’s William Hill/MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap (3.20 p.m.) over six furlongs is regularly targeted by local Yorkshire trainers who have won 13 of the last 15 runnings of the race. SECRET GUEST ticks both of the above boxes in that he was third in this very race a year ago, as well as being second at the course later in the season, and he is trained in North Yorkshire by Bryan Smart. In addition to that, he is in good form having been runner-up at Thirsk last time out in a fairly competitive six-furlong handicap.

Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting tomorrow is a fun event but, in terms of good bets, it is York’s Ebor meeting later this month that excites me more. The four-day event starts in less than two weeks and, unless there is a drastic change in the weather, racing looks likely to take place on fast ground. The most likely winner of the Sky Bet Ebor, Europe’s richest flat handicap, on 23 August is Hipop De Loire, who was desperately unlucky in running in this race a year ago when fifth to another Irish raider Magical Zoe. Willie Mullins’s eight-year-old gelding showed he is in good form when winning easily over hurdles at Galway late last month. However, he is now a top-priced 7-2 and that’s too short for a race this competitive.

Day four at Glorious Goodwood is always my favourite of the meeting but, with such competitive racing, it is hard to pick winners at the best of times. However, yesterday’s downpour – which changed the ground from the fast side of good to ‘heavy’ in just an hour – has complicated things still further. Ed Arkell, the clerk of the course, predicted last night that the ground could be back to ‘good to soft’ by the start of racing today but that’s by no means certain. The Coral Goodwood Handicap (1.20 p.m.