Penworthy

Qatar-sponsored British Champions Day at Ascot tomorrow offers a feast of top-class racing on its seven-race card. Significantly, too, it looks certain, even with some morning rain today, to be staged on untypically quick ground which means horses that excel on soft or heavy ground are going to be inconvenienced. For years, this has been the one major flat meeting of the year where cut in the ground was almost guaranteed but, after our dry summer and autumn, not tomorrow. This is also a meeting at which there have been plenty of shock results, never more so than a year ago when Powerful Glory won the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes at 200-1 and Cicero’s Gift won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at 100-1.

The Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket tomorrow (3.40 p.m.) is a 29-runner race over two miles two furlongs in which any number of horses have a chance of landing the spoils. The most likely winner, if he stays the distance, is the lightly-raced, four-year-old gelding Sea Lantern Last year’s first and second, Beylerbeyi and Dawn Rising, are in the field once again and both will appreciate the fact that the worst of the forecast rain this week has missed the track because both horses like quick ground. At the revised weights, the Irish raider Dawn Rising should come out on top of the pair but Beylerbeyi is the younger, improver. Furthermore, the form of his second at Doncaster last month to Caballo De Mar was franked in spades at Longchamp last weekend.

The big race in Paris this weekend, the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, is almost certain to be run on much faster ground than usual, possibly the equivalent of ‘good to firm’ in Britain. That will be music to the ears of connections of the two horses at the top of the market: the French-trained Daryz and the Newmarket-trained Maltese Cross. The former won this race last year on soft ground, when put up in this column at 14-1, but his talented trainer Francis-Henri Graffard is convinced his charge is better on quicker ground.  Drawn in stall five in a race in which low numbers are favoured, the four-year-old colt will be hard to beat on Sunday (3:05 p.m.

Tomorrow’s bet365 Cambridgeshire (3.40 p.m.) is a cavalry charge up the straight course at Newmarket and it is almost certain that the field will split into at least two groups. However, as with Ascot’s straight course, it is not always possible to predict whether high or low numbers will be favoured. Pace plays a key role as well and, if one side goes off too fast, the horses leading that group will pay a penalty for their early exertions in the final furlong or two. For the last two years, horses drawn low came out best in the race, whereas in 2023 horses drawn high filled the first three places. I put up one horse for the race four weeks ago: Hard Endeavor, each way at 40-1. He is now less than half those odds and he will come out of stall 8, with David Egan in the saddle.

Jockey Saffie Osborne has the world at her feet. She’s talented, young, attractive, personable, ambitious, well-connected and much more. I have no doubt she is on her way to being a global superstar in the sport of racing and beyond. She has certainly done this column plenty of favours in recent weeks. I have tipped three of her rides at fairly tasty prices – Amazing Journey, Hickory and Highwayman – and I am glad to say they have all won. Judging from the Comment section, plenty of others have joined me with these bets and so following her has been profitable for readers, too.

The final classic of the flat season, the Betfred St Leger Stakes, takes places at Doncaster tomorrow (3.35 p.m.) and Irish handler Joseph O’Brien has an excellent chance of landing yet another big prize. The jockey-turned-trainer son of the legend that is Aidan O’Brien has enjoyed a stellar season so far, plundering plenty of big races on both sides of the Irish Sea. Tomorrow his best chance of landing the Group 1 St Leger lies with Enceladus, who is likely to go off as the race favourite. Enceladus is unbeaten in three starts this season including winning the Group 3 Maison Perrier Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out.

Quality staying handicaps are my favourite flat races for betting purposes. Unlike with sprints, the wager is not almost certainly lost if the horse you backed is slowly away or gets hampered in running. In staying races there is plenty of time to make up for some bad luck so the best horse on the day usually wins. Tomorrow’s Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap is just the sort of race that I like to tackle as a gambler Tomorrow’s Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap (Haydock, 3.05 p.m.) over one mile and six furlongs is therefore just the sort of race that I like to tackle as a gambler.

Newmarket trainer James Fanshawe is a patient man and he has resisted the temptation to run his stable star KIND OF BLUE since he turned in a disappointing run at Royal Ascot on ground much faster than ideal in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. He finished 11th of the 18 runners that day. With the sun shining incessantly for most of the summer, Kind of Blue’s target ever since has been the Grade 1 Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes on 5 September in the hope that the rain would finally arrive. The five-year-old has been second for the past two years. According to my weather forecasts, there is plenty of rain around for the next eight days in the Haydock area and I hope the ground will be properly soft by the off.

Lambourn trainer Ed Walker is one of racing’s good guys but even he found it difficult to stay cheerful after his stable star Almaqam was collared on the line by Item in the big race of the week at York, the Juddmonte International Stakes. So near yet so far to win a Group 1 contest, all the more frustrating since Alamaqam comfortably beat the two short-priced horses in the race, Ombudsman and Constitution River. I am hoping Walker’s disappointment will be short-lived because another of his leading lights, TEN BOB TONY, has a good chance of winning the Sky Bet City of York Stakes tomorrow (3 p.m.), even though stepping back in distance from a mile to seven furlongs may not be ideal.

Ripon has a unique sprint course with its undulations, which means that strong course and distance form is always a huge plus when backing a horse there. This is particularly true in a big field such as tomorrow’s William Hill/MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap (3.25 p.m.). However, of tomorrow’s 15 runners, no less than five have recorded course and distance wins over tomorrow’s trip of six furlongs. Of these, my preference is for the Nigel Tinkler-trained LORD ROXBY, who won at Ripon as recently as 3 August, beating another of today’s rivals, Dark Cloud Rising, in the process. Dark Cloud Rising has a 5 lb pull at the weights for a one-and-three-quarter length beating and so he will be fancied by many punters to gain revenge, especially given his high draw.

Scottish trainer Iain Jardine knows what it takes to win the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap at York. He landed the race, the UK’s most valuable flat handicap, in 2017 with his then six-year-old gelding Nakeeta. This year Jardine, who trains in Dumfries and Galloway, plans to head back to York with another six-year-old gelding, PADDY THE SQUIRE, who also has a live chance of landing the spoils. Unlike many trainers, Jardine does not have any worries about his horse making the ‘cut’ for the race, which will have a maximum number of 22 runners. With a career high mark of 104, Paddy The Squire is guaranteed a place in the line-up.

The Coral Stewards’ Cup has to be one of the toughest handicaps of the year to solve and tomorrow’s running (Goodwood, 3.35 p.m.) is as open as they come, with a maximum field of 28 runners due to line up for this downhill cavalry charge over six furlongs. The most likely winner is arguably Two Tribes, who won this race last year and who ran such a top prep race for this contest just six days ago when second in the Moet & Chandon International Handicap at Ascot. However, the chances of Two Tribes winning are fairly obvious and he is now a single-figure price. Far Above Dream has a big shout too from stall 23 but he is also a single-figure price and the likely favourite.

Both favourites in the two major races at Ascot tomorrow are going to take a lot of beating if running up to their best form. At the odds on offer, however, neither makes any appeal as a good bet but it is no easy task finding a horse to beat them. The French raider Calandagan will try to win the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3.35 p.m.) for a second successive year. He needed to be both talented and courageous to wear down the Andrew Balding-trained Kalpana in this race 12 months ago and he will be in his element on the fast ground tomorrow. However, odds of no bigger than 13-8 look skinny enough given the quality of the opposition in this nine-runner Grade 1 contest over a mile and a half.

This weekend’s racing makes no appeal betting wise and so I am instead going to put up three ante-post bets in the hope of landing a big-priced winner for the column over the next month or so. The first bet is in Europe’s richest handicap on the flat, the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap at York on 22 August. This is a race in which Irish maestro Willie Mullins, who won the contest last year with Ethical Diamond, has no less than ten entries. Mullins keeps his cards so close to his chest that I wouldn’t want to bet on which of his horses will run let alone which might win the race. Instead, I prefer the chances of an exposed British trained-runner in DAIQUIRI BAY.

It is so-called ‘Super Saturday’ tomorrow with high-class racing at Newmarket, York and Ascot, and that’s good news for some of the lesser-known jockeys as it means they get an opportunity to ride fancied horses in some of the biggest races. That’s because the likes of Ryan Moore, Oisin Murphy, William Buick, Tom Marquand and Billy Loughnane can only be at one meeting at any one time. Rob Hornby is a hugely talented jockey but he often has to play understudy to Oisin Murphy when it comes to riding trainer Andrew Balding’s best horses. I am hoping Hornby can ride a winner tomorrow when he is reunited with MISS ATTITUDE in the John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (York, 3.12 p.m.).

Some out-of-form sprinters head the market at Sandown tomorrow for the Group 3 Coral Charge (1.50 p.m.). If the likes of Asfoora, Rumstar and Shagraan return to form, they will be tough to beat, but that’s quite a big 'if' given their lacklustre recent racetrack performances. On the face of it, trainer Jack Channon’s GETREADYTORUMBLE also has moderate form this season but he has not had much luck in running in two of his last three starts. Notably, last time out, he reared leaving the stalls, losing several lengths, in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Newcastle stages some quality all-weather racing this weekend, the highlight of which is tomorrow’s JenningsBet Northumberland Plate (3.15 p.m.). As I feared in last week’s column, my main fancy for the race has not made the “cut” and is instead in the consolation race. Cerulean Bay was one of the many eyecatchers at Royal Ascot despite being out of the places There are two main reasons why the quality of this meeting, run on an artificial Tapeta surface, is particularly high this year. Firstly, the generous level of prize money – the Plate, for example, is worth more than £77,000 to winning connections. Secondly, a lot of trainers whose horses prefer soft ground are observing the current heatwave and concluding a race on the all-weather is better than no run at all.

Newmarket handler James Tate has his string in sparkling form and he doesn’t waste bullets by sending horses to Royal Ascot unless they have a chance of winning. Tate has enjoyed six winners from 19 runners over the past fortnight for a winning strike rate of 32 per cent. His only runner so far this week at Royal Ascot, Blue Rc, was second in the Royal Hunt Cup at 28-1 to a well-handicapped horse in Rogue Diplomat. Tate doesn’t waste bullets by sending horses to Royal Ascot unless they have a chance of winning I think his horse, DARN HOT GALLOP has a big chance today of winning the Sandringham Stakes (5 p.m.). She is three wins from four races, her only defeat coming when she was outclassed in the Betfred 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in early May.

Royal Ascot gets underway at 2.30 p.m. today with the Queen Anne Stakes, a fascinating Group 1 race over the straight mile. DOCKLANDS did this column a good turn this time last year when winning this contest after being put up at 25-1. Although he is not going to be anything like those odds this time, I am going to stay loyal to this likeable six-year-old. Admittedly this year’s contest is a hotter event than a year ago and the likes of Notable Speech, Opera Ballo and More Thunder are officially rated superior to trainer Harry Eustace’s course specialist. However, Docklands overcame both a slow start and his rider dropping his whip in last year’s race, and he comes into the meeting in good form.

Race meetings at courses including York, Sandown and Chester offer decent fare for horse racing enthusiasts this weekend but many will already be looking forward to Royal Ascot’s five-day extravaganza beginning on Tuesday. York, in particular, stages some competitive handicaps tomorrow including the 22-runner Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap (3.35 p.m.) over a distance of six furlongs. Ed Walker’s Golden Brown, who is a nice ride for an apprentice, looks overpriced for this contest. The three-year-old gelding has been slowly getting better with racing, finally scoring on his ninth run when victorious at Salisbury last month from a poor draw.