The whole nature of the Randox Grand National (Aintree, tomorrow 4 p.m.) has changed significantly in recent years and it is not just about the fences becoming smaller and safer. A race that once favoured horses below 11 stone in the weights now favours the classier horses that are carrying more than 11 stone.
Here are just two statistics that rather prove that point. In 2005, Hedgehunter became the first horse since Corbiere 22 years earlier to carry more than 11 stone to victory in this famous, marathon handicap chase.
However, in the last two years of the race, since the maximum number of runners was reduced from 40 to 34, only one horse has finished in the first four with less than 11 stone. That dubious honour goes to Iroko, who was fourth last year carrying 10 stone 11 lbs but who has a weight of 11 stone 1 lbs tomorrow.
There are any number of dangers tomorrow
I have already put up GRANGECLARE WEST to win only at 10-1 for the race Non Runner No Bet (NRNB). My other NRNB ante-post each-way bet was on Now Is The Hour at 33-1, but he was ruled out for the season with an injury earlier this week. There was no harm to the bank balance so onwards and upwards with another stab at the winner.
MONTY’S STAR, who will carry 11 stone 3 lbs tomorrow, looks to have been aimed at this race all season. His overall form is just below that needed to win a Grade 1 race but he is a sound jumper and he has some solid form over chases from the past three seasons.
The gelding, now nine, was second in the 2024 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and fourth in the 2025 Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. This season his best run came when he was a staying-on fifth in a red-hot running of the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown in late December.
Irish handler Henry de Bromhead has two live chances in the race tomorrow, but it looks significant that stable jockey Darragh O’Keeffe has chosen to ride Monty’s Star rather than Gorgeous Tom. De Bromhead, in fact, now has a third runner as Amirite has been elevated from being a reserve to taking his chance in the race.
There are any number of dangers tomorrow, headed by the top weight and likely favourite, I Am Maximus, who won this race two years ago and was second last year. He is the choice of Willie Mullins’ stable jockey Paul Townend.
At much bigger odds, I quite like the chances of two other Mullins’ trained horses: Captain Cody, who won the Scottish Grand National a year ago, and Quai De Bourbon, who was third in last year’s BoyleSports Irish Grand National. The latter will be ridden by the in-form Donagh Meyler.
The two best handicapped horses in the race are the British-trained duo of Johnnywho and Jagwar, who are due to go up in 6 lbs and 5 lbs in their respective ratings for future races after their fine exploits at the Cheltenham Festival. They can both run off their old marks tomorrow but, like a lot of horses in the field, they are not guaranteed to stay tomorrow’s trip of 4 miles 2 furlongs.
On balance, it’s just Monty’s Star as the new tip for this race that is worth £500,000 to winning connections. Back him one point each way at 16-1 with bet365 or Star Sports, both paying six places.
In the opener at Aintree tomorrow, the Grade 1 Hallgarten & Novum Wines Maghull Novices’ Chase (12.45 p.m.), Salvator Mundi is likely to go off a short-priced favourite with every chance of landing the £67,000-plus first prize. He is officially rated 152, exactly the same as MIGHTY BANDIT, who is looking for a four timer after three wins in handicap company. This six-year-old gelding was only modest on the flat but he has improved leaps and bounds for fences. Back him one point each way three places at 9-2 with most, but not all, bookies.
The William Hill Handicap Hurdle tomorrow (1.20 p.m.) is a hugely competitive 22-runner event. GET ON GEORGE almost did this blog a big favour when second at 33-1 for a big novices’ handicap hurdle at Sandown last month.
That was over two miles four furlongs and the way he stayed on last time out suggests he may be even better over today’s race of three miles plus. The booking of jockey Jack Tudor is a bonus. Back him one point each way at 20-1 with Paddy Power, paying six places.
Looking at today’s racing at Aintree, I have already put up Prairie Wolf each way at 33-1 for the Randox Topham Handicap Chase (4.05 p.m.). He’s now 12-1, having been put up in the Racing Post by Pricewise (Tom Segal) last night.
However, I want to go in double handed with another Henry de Bromhead horse, COMING UP EASY, who was going well in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November before making a catastrophic blunder at the third last fence and being pulled up soon after.
Coming Up Easy has won his previous three starts before that setback and he has not run since. However, he goes well fresh and he goes on good ground so back him one point each way at 14-1 with William Hill, paying 5 places.
In the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (1.45 p.m.), course and distance winner Indeevar Bleu will win if he is anywhere near as good as his trainer Olly Murphy thinks he is.
However, this horse is fragile and so, at the prices, I would rather be on Harry Fry’s TRUSTINTIMES, who has won three of his four starts this season and was second in the other. This horse has been waiting for good ground after a mid-season break and, aged just five, still has plenty of improvement in him. Back him one point each way at 16-1 with William Hill, paying five places.
Next weekend, the action switches to Ayr where the course hosts the Coral Scottish Grand National. I will be back a week today to preview that race and more.
Last weekend – 6 points.
1 point each way The Big Westerner at SP for the WillowWarm Gold Cup. Non runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 33-1 for the Irish Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced (5th). – 2 points.
1 point each way One Big Bang at 20-1 for the Irish Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced (6th). – 2 points.
1 point each way Stumptown at 33-1 for the Irish Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Non runner. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Trustintimes at 16-1 for theWilliam Hill Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Prairie Wolf at 33-1 for the Topham, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Coming Up Easy at 14-1 for the Topham, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Mighty Bandit at 9-2 for the Maghull Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Get On George at 20-1 for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
2 points win Grangeclare West at 10-1 NRNB for the Aintree Grand National.
1 point each way Monty’s Star at 16-1 for the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Now Is The Hour at 33-1 NRNB for the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Non runner. Stake returned.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 37.185 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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