Trainer George Boughey is convinced that his horse Bow Echo has a big chance of landing tomorrow’s Betfred 2000 Guineas (Newmarket, 3.35 p.m.) after a ‘faultless’ preparation. This unbeaten three-year-old colt is a course and distance winner who is proven on fast ground so he is going to take a lot of beating in the first classic of the 2026 flat season.
Irish handler Aidan O’ Brien’s only runner Gstaad is officially the highest-rated horse in the 15-runner field and, with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he also looks likely to run a big race in which the first prize for winning connections is nearly £300,000. Gstaad was heavily backed yesterday meaning he and Bow Echo are now vying for favouritism in this one-mile contest.
The John and Thady Gosden trained Oxagon showed his well-being with a tidy course and distance victory last month in the Group 3 Betway Craven Stakes, which is often a good trial for the 2000 Guineas. However, this year’s Craven was some way below its usual high standards with just five runners so that form looks moderate.
At big prices, I would rather back NEEDLE MATCH for the William Haggas/Tom Marquand trainer/jockey combination because I am sure he is better than he showed on his seasonal debut when only fourth in the Group 3 Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes at Newbury. With a faster pace and the step up to a mile, expect a better showing from this lightly raced colt, although I would have preferred him not to be stuck on a wing in stall 1.
Back Needle Match 1 point each way at 16-1 with bet365, Betfred or BetVictor, all paying four places: several other bookies are paying only three places.
In tomorrow’s Group 3 HKJC World Pool Palace House Stakes (2.55 p.m.), I hope RUMSTAR can win this race for the second year running for his in-form trainer Jonny Portman. This gelding seems to have been around for ever yet he is still only six years old with career earnings of more than £250,000.
A stiff five furlongs on quick ground are his optimum conditions and he gets weight from the likely favourite Asfoora, a talented mare who also acts best on fast going. Back Rumstar 1 point each way at 13-2 with one of the many bookies offering both this price and four places.
In the opening race at Newmarket tomorrow, the six-furlong Oddschecker Ellen Chaloner Stakes (1.10 p.m.) for fillies and mares, I am going to take a chance on CELANDINE for another in-form yard, this time that of Lambourn trainer Ed Walker.
This four-year-old filly was winless last season but she is better than she showed in four starts as a three-year-old. This race is very competitive with a lot of top sprinters making their seasonal debuts but back her 1 point each way at Starting Price with any bookie as they are all paying three places.
At the time of writing, the 48-hour declarations were about to get under way for Sunday’s Betfred 1000 Guineas (Newmarket, 3.35 p.m.). Aidan O’Brien’s Precise, unbeaten in her last four starts, is a worthy favourite.
However, at the likely prices, I want to back the Owen Burrows trained TOULEEN, who has long been well-thought of by her talented handler. She could not handle the fast-finishing Sukanya in the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Stake at Newbury last month. However, she will come on for that run as jockey Saffie Osborne was not hard on her that day with the second classic of the season Touleen’s long-term target.
Back Touleen 1 point each way at Starting Price with the bookmaker offering most places, probably SkyBet or Paddy Power but look on the Oddschecker website on either Saturday or Sunday for that information.
I was not sorry to see the 2025-6 jumps season come to a close, betting wise. After my best-ever tipping season as Penworthy – the flat of 2025 – I have just experienced my worst, which is disappointing. It has put a dent in the overall profits for Penworthy over the past seven seasons. But I am excited to be turning my attention to the flat once again: this time next week, I will be looking at the Chester Cup, one of my favourite flat handicaps of the season.
Pending:
1 point each way Celandine at SPfor theEllen Chaloner Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Rumstar at 13-2 for the Palace House Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Needle Match at 16-1 for the 2000 Guineas, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Touleen at SP for the 1000 Guineas, paying most places on offer.
Last weekend: – 6 points.
2 points win Solness at 9-2 in the bet365 Celebration Chase. 3rd – 2 points.
2 points win In d’Or at 11-2 in the bet365 Gold Cup. 4th. – 2 points.
1 point each way Livin On Luco at 14-1 in the bet365 Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2026 flat season running total:
2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for seven full seasons of tipping: + 68.215 points
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