James Heale

It’s the day after Jeremy Hunt's first Budget and so far the Chancellor has managed to avoid disaster. Reaction has been muted, with the Daily Mail asking the question on the mind of many Tories: 'Is it enough to turn the tide?' The Guardian and Mirror have, predictably, focused on criticism of Hunt's proposal to abolish the Lifetime Allowance but thus far the Chancellor is yet to see his Budget 'unravel' in the manner of George Osborne's 2012 statement or Kwasi Kwarteng's 'fiscal event.' However, this morning's Budget briefing from the Institute of Fiscal Studies offered some grim analysis. Paul Johnson and his number-crunching team ran through the figures in the Spring Budget in detail.

In the Budget we heard plenty about welfare reform and how Conservatives believe in hard work. But in the small print, the OBR reveals it expects just 10,000 to go back to employment because of tighter conditionality on benefits: a tiny sliver of the 5.2 million on out-of-work benefits. A greater number – 75,000 – are expected back to part-time work due to greater childcare support. But the biggest number – 160,000 – are expected from something Jeremy Hunt did not mention at all: migration. This is perhaps the biggest unspoken feature of today’s Budget. Overall, the OBR says it now assumes net migration to settle at 245,000 a year – up from 205,000 it expected only last November and 129,000 in March last year.

Rishi Sunak has announced in California the details of the UK-US pact to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. Aukus was first-unveiled in September 2021: in the 18 months since, the three nations have agreed that the new fleet will be built in Britain and Australia to British designs. It's only the second time ever that the United States have shared nuclear submarine technology with its allies, following a similar UK/US deal in 1958. The first of these submarines are expected to be ready in the UK in the late 2030s and will mainly be built by BAE Systems at Barrow-in-Furness, and Rolls-Royce.

Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron held a press conference together at the Élysée Palace today to mark their new deal on stopping the Channel crossings. It is part of the first Franco-British summit for five years and a chance for Sunak to demonstrate his commitment to breaking with the factitious post-Brexit era in UK-France relations. ‘The jury’s still out’ said Liz Truss when asked seven months on whether Emmanuel Macron was a ‘friend or foe.’ ‘Merci, mon ami’ was how Sunak preferred to conclude his charm offensive today. The message was clear: charm is back – and offensive is out. Sunak referred to the ‘shared challenge’ of stopping these boats; Macron said the nations, bound by history and geography, were determined to ‘make progress in lockstep’.

Today the privileges committee has published its initial report into whether Boris Johnson lied to the House of Commons about Partygate. This inquiry does not look at whether gatherings in lockdown happened or not – we know they did. Rather, it is going to investigate whether Johnson was aware such gatherings were taking place and, if he did, whether he 'knowingly' lied to the House of Commons when he told MPs that 'the rules were followed at all times'. It also focuses on why the then prime minister did not correct the record at the earliest opportunity when it became clear that the Covid rules had not been followed at all times. Below is a summary of the top lines from the 24-page report and Johnson's bullish response, ahead of his evidence session later this month.

The reaction to Rishi Sunak’s Protocol changes has so far been at the upper end of expectations in No. 10. It gets a thumbs up from the Fleet Street papers – including the still-influential Daily Mail which has tended to splash positive stories about Boris Johnson. It has received warm words from a raft of pro-Brexit grandees like Michael Howard, David Davis and Liam Fox. And crucially it has not attracted the ire which accompanied previous deals like the Chequers Agreement of 2018. Indeed, at the time of writing, no Conservative MP has publicly said that they will vote against it. As those in No. 10 are all too aware, pitfalls still lie ahead in both Belfast and Westminster So far, so good. But, as those in No.

After months of negotiating, Rishi Sunak has today unveiled his changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol. They focus on three key areas – trade, regulatory divergence and the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). At a press conference today, Sunak outlined these under the so-called ‘Windsor Framework’ agreed with the European Commission. The first area of dispute has been trade – and it is here that Rishi Sunak has secured his most consumer-friendly ‘wins’. There has effectively been a customs border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland since 2020. Presently all goods are treated as though they are going into the European Union, despite Northern Ireland not being a member.