James Heale is The Spectator’s deputy political editor.
11 min listen
Ronald Reagan famously asked voters: 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' At the next election, the Tories face a public thinking over the last fourteen years. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt gave a speech today defending the UK's record tax levels and attacking Labour's economic plans. But who should we trust more on tax? Fraser Nelson and James Heale join Katy Balls to discuss. Produced by Megan McElroy and Patrick Gibbons.
13 min listen
Keir Starmer has unveiled his six election pledges. In a nod to Tony Blair's 1997 election card, the Labour leader has announced key promises to the public should they win the election. How are the commitments being received, and what will the impact of his speech be? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Stephen Bush, Associate Editor at the Financial Times.
Brexit was the issue that won the last general election for the Tories but botching it may well lose them the next. The Red Wall was attracted by the promise that after sovereignty was wrested back from Brussels, the UK would be able to control its immigration policy and employers would have to pay their workers more. Instead, net immigration – the legal kind, nothing to do with small boats – hit 745,000 in 2022. This is double pre-Brexit levels and far higher than the government expected. No one knew quite how the new visa toolkit would work, and ministers are now scrambling to curb numbers. Higher salary thresholds have been imposed and rules on bringing over dependants have been tightened.
11 min listen
There were no defections today at Prime Minister’s Questions, which probably put Keir Starmer in a slightly stronger position, ironically, given the fuss about Natalie Elphicke crossing the floor last week. The focus was on justice and both the PM and Starmer came up with some new attack lines, but the delivery was – in parts – decidedly lacking. Who came out on top? Cindy Yu speaks to Isabel Hardman and James Heale. Produced by Cindy Yu and Oscar Edmondson.
John Swinney, newly inaugurated First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the SNP, has been in the job for a week. What have we learnt since he took up the job, and can he turn things around for the party in time for a general election? James Heale speaks to Lucy Dunn and Fergus Mutch, former SNP adviser. Produced by Megan McElroy.
Today is one of those rare occasions in British politics – a day when Rishi Sunak’s government has a bit of good news. Figures released this morning show the UK economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first three months of the year, thanks to stronger than expected growth in March. So it is no surprise then that Labour want to take control of the news agenda by turning attention elsewhere. Sir Keir Starmer is in Dover this morning, proudly unveiling his latest Tory defector. Natalie Elphicke is intended to be Starmer’s ‘small boats bodyguard’ in the upcoming election, using her reputation as a migration hawk to deflect Tory attacks.
10 min listen
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed this morning that the UK confined its technical recession to 2023. The economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first three months of the year, thanks in large part to stronger-than-expected growth in March, which reached 0.4 per cent. But is the plan really working? Also on the podcast, Keir Starmer gave a speech in Dover this morning on Labour's plans to stop the boats. He also took the opportunity to unveil new Labour MP Natalie Elphicke. Is there any clear blue water between Labour and the Tories when it comes to migration? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Kate Andrews and James Heale. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
14 min listen
This week, shadow foreign secretary David Lammy is stateside, meeting with senior advisors to Donald Trump and hoping to charm them. Meanwhile, David Cameron gives his first set-piece policy speech. Who is the more credible statesman? Cindy Yu talks to James Heale and Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. Produced by Cindy Yu.
Eight months ago, Robert Jenrick and Neil O’Brien were serving ministers under Rishi Sunak. But both are now out of government and keen to show where their former colleagues are going wrong. The two backbenchers today published a big paper on migration with the Centre for Policy Studies. It calls for the Home Office to be broken up to create a new ‘Department of Border Security and Immigration Control’. The aim is to get the number of legal arrivals to Britain down to the ‘tens of thousands’ – a target which has eluded every Tory leader since David Cameron. Speaking at the report’s launch in Westminster, both Jenrick and O’Brien were keen to stress their emphasis on policy, rather than party politics.
Shortly before Prime Minister's Questions today, Labour dropped a bombshell. Natalie Elphicke, one of the most hawkish Tory MPs on migration, has defected to Sir Keir Starmer's party. Elphicke, who has sat for Dover and Deal since 2019, said in a statement that she was switching parties because of how much the political landscape had shifted over the past five years. Under the Conservatives, she said, 'the centre ground has been abandoned and key pledges of the 2019 manifesto have been ditched'. Labour, by contrast, 'has moved on from Jeremy Corbyn and now, under Keir Starmer, occupies the centre ground of British politics.
14 min listen
It's the first day back after the local elections. Following Thursday's results, some polling suggests that if the votes were replicated in a general election, there might be a hung parliament. Could this be a reality? The Spectator's James Heale and Katy Balls are joined by Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta. Produced by Megan McElroy.
The local elections results are in, and the Conservatives have lost more than 450 council seats. After a full recount, Labour’s Richard Parker beat Andy Street to become West Midlands mayor, with only around 1500 votes in it. What does his loss mean for Rishi Sunak, and where do the overall results leave him? Katy Balls and James Heale speak to Megan McElroy. Produced by Megan McElroy.
Andy Street has been defeated as mayor of West Midlands by Labour's Richard Parker in a knife-edge contest. The result was due at 3 p.m this afternoon but was delayed by almost six hours following a recount of all the ballots cast in Coventry. Parker ended up with 225,590 or 37.8 per cent of votes to Street’s 224,082 or 37.5 per cent - so just 1,508 votes separated them. It means that Labour has now won 10 of the 11 mayor elections. Ben Houchen, clinging on in Tees Valley, is the only Tory mayor left. Street had done all he could to distance himself from what he regarded as a toxic Tory brand, removing all traces of the Conservative party from his website. In effect, he ran as an independent. This time yesterday it seemed that he'd done it, with Labour seeming to give up hope.
'Consolidation' is the word on Lib Dem lips today, as the party mulls its solid, if not spectacular, progress in Thursday's local elections. Ed Davey's troops gained more than 100 council seats and added two more authorities to their existing tally of ten. Sir John Curtice, the elections expert, suggests they 'had only a modest night'. He puts the party's 'disappointing' projected national share of the vote at 17 per cent– three percentage points down on 2023. This, some Lib Dems counter, is unfair. In 2023, there were more than 8,000 council seats up for grabs; this time there were just 2,600. This week's elections tended to be in more 'red wall' or metropolitan areas where the primary challenge to Tory rule is from Labour, not the Liberal Democrats.
10 min listen
Rishi Sunak can breathe a (small) sigh of relief. Ben Houchen, the so-called ‘patron saint of the red wall’, has won a third term as Tees Valley mayor. Houchen secured 53.6 per cent of the vote with Labour in second place with 41.3 per cent, despite some polls in advance suggesting it was neck-and-neck between the Tories and Labour. The Conservatives have undeniably had one of their worst nights for a generation, but are there some silver linings? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Fraser Nelson. Produced by Natasha Feroze and Oscar Edmondson.
From Hartlepool in the red wall to true blue Rushmoor, Labour has made gains across the country. But as Keir Stramer chalks up the wins, he also confronts some setbacks. Oldham council has fallen to no overall control due to the election of seven new independents – and the conflict in the Middle East is emerging as a theme. One in four Oldham residents is Muslim, with many protesting against Labour’s support for Israel since October. ‘In some parts of the borough, it’s the Gaza issue that may lose them the seat,’ one outgoing Labour councillor told local journalists. The Manchester Evening News is also citing it as a reason for Labour’s losses at the hands of seven independent candidates.
It is a thankless morning for Tories on the media round. Faced with the loss of half of their council seats, ministers are resorting to the time-honoured tactic of talking up favourable results as offering useful national lessons. This trick was pioneered by Kenneth Baker, who as Mrs Thatcher’s party chair successfully sold the post-Poll Tax elections of 1990 as a good night, based on the exceptional results of Westminster and Wandsworth. This time, Harlow is CCHQ’s favourite local council, with the Tories winning 17 of the available 33 seats therem and Labour one shy on 16. It is clear from results elsewhere that Harlow is an exception, and not the rule in this election The outgoing MP Rob Halfon was quick to hail the result as the ‘biggest comeback since Lazarus’.
12 min listen
Tomorrow, voters go to the polls for the last set of local elections in this parliament, alongside 11 mayoral elections in England, 37 police and crime commissioner elections in England and Wales plus the London Assembly elections. Could Ben Houchen, Tees Valley Mayor, help turn Rishi Sunak's fortunes around? You can read James Heale's assessment of the key battlegrounds here. Also on the podcast, a look at rumours that Labour are in talks to water down their employment policies. Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and John McTernan, former adviser to Tony Blair.
Could Labour really lose London? A new poll out today shows that Sadiq Khan's lead over Susan Hall is down to just ten points, ahead of the capital's voters going to the polls tomorrow. The survey from Savanta for the Centre for London gives Khan 42 per cent of the vote, followed by Hall on 32 per cent and then Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie in third with 10 per cent. It points to the race tightening, with Khan’s lead dropping three points since the last Savanta poll. The findings are a striking contrast with a separate YouGov poll which gives Khan a massive 22-point lead. How best to explain this split? One leading pollster admits that their peers 'are very nervous about London'.
Tomorrow, voters go to the polls for the last set of local elections in this parliament. After five tumultuous years, Rishi Sunak and his party look set to suffer big losses – including up to half the 985 council seats which the Tories are trying to hold. Some 2,600 council seats are up for grabs across 107 local authorities in England, with much of the attention focused on areas containing key parliamentary marginals. Eleven councils are identified below as being particularly worth watching over the next few days, with results trickling in from Friday morning until Saturday afternoon. Alongside the council elections are 11 mayoral elections in England, 37 police and crime commissioner elections in England and Wales plus the London Assembly elections too.