James Heale

James Heale

James Heale is The Spectator’s deputy political editor.

Wednesday

James Heale

Labour heading for landslide, say Tories

From our UK edition

Labour is ‘highly likely’ to win a landslide majority tomorrow of historic proportions, according to Rishi Sunak’s own candidates. During this morning’s media round, Mel Stride was asked by the BBC if he agreed with Suella Braverman, who wrote in the Telegraph that a near wipe-out looks to be on the cards. ‘I have accepted where the polls are at the moment,’ replied the Work and Pensions Secretary. ‘That we are therefore tomorrow highly likely to be in a situation where [Labour has] the largest majority that any party has ever achieved,’ adding that he thinks it will be ‘much bigger than 1997’. But just a few hours later Sunak backtracked slightly when asked on ITV if he had given up.

James Heale

Will there be an election upset on Thursday?

From our UK edition

12 min listen

Tomorrow, voters will head to the polling booth to cast their vote in the 2024 general election. Will there be any surprises in store? So far, there has been little movement when it comes to the gap in vote share between Labour and the Tories. However, there's still plenty of uncertainty across the parties as to what the exit poll will say at 10 p.m. on Thursday night. James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata.

Tuesday

James Heale

Has Reform peaked too soon?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

The election campaign was going well for Nigel Farage's Reform... until it wasn't. A series of controversies have been difficult for the party to shake off. Will the distractions cost them votes and MPs? How will it affect their momentum - and who's to blame? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Heale.

James Heale

Is it going wrong for Reform?

From our UK edition

Has Reform peaked too soon? In the wake of Rishi Sunak’s D-Day debacle, the party was riding high in the polls. Successive surveys suggested that they were neck-and-neck with the Tories. After one poll even showed Reform ahead, Nigel Farage hailed it as a ‘crossover moment’. He jokingly referred to himself as the ‘Leader of the Opposition’, declaring he ‘absolutely’ believed Reform would win more votes than the Conservatives. A fortnight on, things now look a little less rosy for Reform. Following Farage’s interview with Nick Robinson – in which he suggested the West helped provoke Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the party faced an onslaught of cross-party criticism. Reform’s response was to go on the attack.

Wednesday

James Heale

Labour member arrested in connection with Westminster ‘honeytrap’ affair

From our UK edition

Bet-gate is dominating the headlines – but an old scandal has now reared its head again. The Metropolitan Police this morning arrested a man in his mid-20s in connection with the Westminster ‘honeytrap’ affair. He was taken into custody in Islington, London on suspicion of harassment and committing offences under the Online Safety Act. The man has been identified as a Labour party member, and has been suspended by the party. Labour has said it cannot comment due to the police investigation. The arrest comes three months after nearly two dozen men, mostly working in politics or journalism, revealed in April that they had received unsolicited, flirtatious WhatsApp messages from people calling themselves ‘Charlie’ or ‘Abi’.  Explicit images were exchanged in some cases.

Tuesday

James Heale

Who will survive?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

It's another bad day for the Conservatives. Rishi Sunak has withdrawn support for the Tory candidates involved in the general election betting scandal. What has led to the timing of this decision? Also on the podcast, James Kanagasooriam, Chief Research Officer of Focaldata, explains their latest poll that suggests a 250-seat Labour majority. He joins Katy Balls and James Heale.

Monday

James Heale

Sunak and Starmer slug out a stalemate

From our UK edition

Tonight saw the penultimate TV exchange involving Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer. Both men took part in live-streamed interviews with the Sun’s political editor Harry Cole and a live studio audience, ten days prior to polling day. Sunak was up first and had a difficult balancing act in the 30-minute exchange, seeking to embrace the Tory successes of the past 14 years while distancing himself from its failures. ‘This election is about the future,’ he insisted at one point – moments after praising the coalition’s education reforms. Three times he repeated his seven-word defence that: ‘I’ve been Prime Minister for 18 months.’ It was a line which sounded plausible on migration, when he could claim to have cut legal numbers since coming to office.

James Heale

Farage goes on the attack after Ukraine criticism

From our UK edition

Foreign policy hasn’t featured much in this election – until now. Over the weekend, Nigel Farage’s suggestion that the West was partially to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine produced an avalanche of cross-party criticism. Both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak labelled his comments ‘disgraceful’, while the Mail on Sunday claimed a member of president Zelensky’s staff had suggested Farage was infected with the ‘virus of Putinism’. Rather than back down, the Reform leader has opted to reprise the pugilists’ playbook and counterpunch with fire.

James Heale

Is Nigel Farage drawing from the Trump playbook?

From our UK edition

12 min listen

In a speech this afternoon, Nigel Farage doubled down on controversial comments he made about the West provoking the war in Ukraine. Is the Reform leader taking inspiration from Trump? And could this be a small win for the Tories who are seeking to claw back Reform votes? Also on the podcast, James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Fraser Nelson about the latest in the election date betting scandal.

Saturday

James Heale

Is Brexit safe under Labour?

From our UK edition

17 min listen

Writer, trade unionist and Labour Brexiteer Paul Embery joins James Heale to discuss Labour's plans for the EU should they get into government. Paul highlights the need for Labour to deliver on its promises and avoid alienating working-class voters. Will Rachel Reeves appease the Red Wall? And how tough will Labour be on immigration?

James Heale

Inside the battle for Bristol

From our UK edition

Even if Keir Starmer wins a landslide majority next week, there is one former stronghold he might still lose. A Green insurgency is giving Thangam Debbonaire, the shadow culture secretary, the fight of her political life.  In this election the Greens are posing as a radical-left alternative to Starmer’s Labour. And Bristol Central, known as the ‘most left-wing constituency in Britain’, is where they believe they stand the best chance of winning a second seat in parliament.  Carla Denyer, the Greens’ co-leader, is the candidate here. Her manifesto: far more NHS and state spending, a tax on the rich, no university fees, free care-home costs, nationalised railways and net zero by 2040.

Friday

James Heale

Question Time special – who came out on top?

From our UK edition

13 min listen

Last nights election Question Time programme was probably the best of the campaign in that it gave space for proper discussion while making all the leaders uncomfortable.  None of the four men questioned over the two hour programme – Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and John Swinney – did badly. There were some good revelatory comments, but Fiona Bruce's questioning exposed each leaders key weakness. Did anyone manage to shift the dial?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and Katy Balls.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Thursday

James Heale

Sunak’s campaign derailed by betting claims — again

From our UK edition

12 min listen

Another allegation over betting with insider knowledge has transpired today, this time involving the Conservative candidate Laura Sanders, who is married to the party's director of campaigns, Tony Lee. Lee has now taken a leave of absence as the Gambling Commission carries out an investigation. On the episode, Cindy Yu talks to Kate Andrews and James Heale about how this derails an already wobbly campaign. Produced by Cindy Yu.

Wednesday

James Heale

Have the Tories given up on the Red Wall?

From our UK edition

13 min listen

Yet another three MRP polls landed today – and none of them look pretty for the Conservative party. This comes as Boris Johnson rules out helping on the campaign trail as reports say that the party has given up on the Red Wall. On the episode, James Heale talks to Katy Balls and conservative commentator Paul Goodman about why the Tories will continue to struggle to close the poll gap given the roles played by the Liberal Democrats and Reform. Produced by Cindy Yu.

Tuesday

James Heale

Is Boris back to save the day?

From our UK edition

12 min listen

If you're a Twitter user, you might have seen more of Boris Johnson than usual. He's been making videos to endorse selected candidates from his holiday in Sardinia. Might he make a bigger return to the election campaign? Is he the man that could save the Tories from Farage - and does he want to?  James Heale speaks to Isabel Hardman and Fraser Nelson.

Monday

James Heale

Does Nigel Farage have the cure for Britain?

From our UK edition

10 min listen

Nigel Farage has unveiled Reform UK's manifesto. Except, it's not a manifesto, because he says the word is synonymous in voters’ minds with ‘lies’. It promises a freeze on non-essential immigration, a patriotic curriculum, leaving the European Court on Human Rights, and cutting taxes by £88 billion.  Is this contract more of a wish list? How much damage can Nigel Farage do to the Conservatives? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Heale.

James Heale

Farage’s ‘contract’ is all about hurting the Tories

From our UK edition

Nigel Farage has launched his party’s manifesto, which he’s termed ‘Our contract with you’. The Reform leader dropped the word ‘manifesto’, claiming the word is synonymous in voters’ minds with ‘lies’. Farage told attendees he’d chosen Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales for today’s launch to highlight Labour’s record there, yet the document’s contents indicate that it’s the Tories he’s really targeting.The 24-page contract promises to freeze non-essential immigration, introduce a new tax on employers who hire foreign workers, cut taxes by £88 billion and leave the European Court on Human Rights. It promises a ‘patriotic curriculum’ and 30,000 more full-time members of the Armed Forces.

Friday

James Heale

Farage: I am now the ‘Leader of the Opposition’

From our UK edition

After the first poll was published showing Reform ahead of the Tories, there was only one thing for Nigel Farage to do: hold an emergency press conference at the heart of Westminster. This afternoon journalists scrambled over to the Wellington Hotel to hear what Farage had to say after reaching the long-awaited 'crossover' moment when his party overtook the Conservatives. The Reform leader was on punchy form, branding himself the new 'Leader of the Opposition' and suggesting that 'some of the polling industry were acting entirely dishonestly' by not prompting for his party in surveys. He said that: 'I’m pleased to say, as a result of my letter to the chair of the British Polling Council, they have been told now they really ought to be prompting for Reform.

Tuesday

James Heale

Is Sunak’s cautious manifesto a mistake?

From our UK edition

13 min listen

Conservatives hoping to turn their fortunes around with the publication of the party's manifesto have been disappointed. The document contained little by way of surprises or rabbits, and despite Sunak's pledge that the Conservatives are the party of tax cutting, the new costings show that the tax burden will continue to rise. Katy Balls talks to James Heale and Kate Andrews. Join the Coffee House Shots team for a live recording on Thursday 11 July. Get tickets at spectator.co.uk/live. Produced by Cindy Yu.

James Heale

Sunak plays it safe with his manifesto

From our UK edition

With three weeks to go until polling day, Rishi Sunak this morning unveiled his prospectus for a Conservative government. There had been much talk that the Tory manifesto would have a big, bold policy to win back voters: perhaps the abolition of inheritance tax or maybe a referendum on the European Court of Human Rights. Such measures though were rejected in favour of a more modest tax reduction. With most of the manifesto briefed in advance, the headline-grabbing measure from today’s launch is the news that the Conservatives will abolish National Insurance contributions for the self-employed by the end of the next parliament. Sunak claims that this will be worth £1,300 to the average worker in a clear pitch to Essex’s white van man.