James Heale is The Spectator’s deputy political editor.
12 min listen
In a speech this afternoon, Nigel Farage doubled down on controversial comments he made about the West provoking the war in Ukraine. Is the Reform leader taking inspiration from Trump? And could this be a small win for the Tories who are seeking to claw back Reform votes? Also on the podcast, James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Fraser Nelson about the latest in the election date betting scandal.
17 min listen
Writer, trade unionist and Labour Brexiteer Paul Embery joins James Heale to discuss Labour's plans for the EU should they get into government. Paul highlights the need for Labour to deliver on its promises and avoid alienating working-class voters. Will Rachel Reeves appease the Red Wall? And how tough will Labour be on immigration?
Even if Keir Starmer wins a landslide majority next week, there is one former stronghold he might still lose. A Green insurgency is giving Thangam Debbonaire, the shadow culture secretary, the fight of her political life. In this election the Greens are posing as a radical-left alternative to Starmer’s Labour. And Bristol Central, known as the ‘most left-wing constituency in Britain’, is where they believe they stand the best chance of winning a second seat in parliament. Carla Denyer, the Greens’ co-leader, is the candidate here. Her manifesto: far more NHS and state spending, a tax on the rich, no university fees, free care-home costs, nationalised railways and net zero by 2040.
13 min listen
Last nights election Question Time programme was probably the best of the campaign in that it gave space for proper discussion while making all the leaders uncomfortable. None of the four men questioned over the two hour programme – Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and John Swinney – did badly. There were some good revelatory comments, but Fiona Bruce's questioning exposed each leaders key weakness. Did anyone manage to shift the dial? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and Katy Balls. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
12 min listen
Another allegation over betting with insider knowledge has transpired today, this time involving the Conservative candidate Laura Sanders, who is married to the party's director of campaigns, Tony Lee. Lee has now taken a leave of absence as the Gambling Commission carries out an investigation. On the episode, Cindy Yu talks to Kate Andrews and James Heale about how this derails an already wobbly campaign. Produced by Cindy Yu.
13 min listen
Yet another three MRP polls landed today – and none of them look pretty for the Conservative party. This comes as Boris Johnson rules out helping on the campaign trail as reports say that the party has given up on the Red Wall. On the episode, James Heale talks to Katy Balls and conservative commentator Paul Goodman about why the Tories will continue to struggle to close the poll gap given the roles played by the Liberal Democrats and Reform. Produced by Cindy Yu.
12 min listen
If you're a Twitter user, you might have seen more of Boris Johnson than usual. He's been making videos to endorse selected candidates from his holiday in Sardinia. Might he make a bigger return to the election campaign? Is he the man that could save the Tories from Farage - and does he want to? James Heale speaks to Isabel Hardman and Fraser Nelson.
10 min listen
Nigel Farage has unveiled Reform UK's manifesto. Except, it's not a manifesto, because he says the word is synonymous in voters’ minds with ‘lies’. It promises a freeze on non-essential immigration, a patriotic curriculum, leaving the European Court on Human Rights, and cutting taxes by £88 billion. Is this contract more of a wish list? How much damage can Nigel Farage do to the Conservatives? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Heale.
Nigel Farage has launched his party’s manifesto, which he’s termed ‘Our contract with you’. The Reform leader dropped the word ‘manifesto’, claiming the word is synonymous in voters’ minds with ‘lies’. Farage told attendees he’d chosen Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales for today’s launch to highlight Labour’s record there, yet the document’s contents indicate that it’s the Tories he’s really targeting.The 24-page contract promises to freeze non-essential immigration, introduce a new tax on employers who hire foreign workers, cut taxes by £88 billion and leave the European Court on Human Rights. It promises a ‘patriotic curriculum’ and 30,000 more full-time members of the Armed Forces.
After the first poll was published showing Reform ahead of the Tories, there was only one thing for Nigel Farage to do: hold an emergency press conference at the heart of Westminster. This afternoon journalists scrambled over to the Wellington Hotel to hear what Farage had to say after reaching the long-awaited 'crossover' moment when his party overtook the Conservatives. The Reform leader was on punchy form, branding himself the new 'Leader of the Opposition' and suggesting that 'some of the polling industry were acting entirely dishonestly' by not prompting for his party in surveys. He said that: 'I’m pleased to say, as a result of my letter to the chair of the British Polling Council, they have been told now they really ought to be prompting for Reform.
13 min listen
Conservatives hoping to turn their fortunes around with the publication of the party's manifesto have been disappointed. The document contained little by way of surprises or rabbits, and despite Sunak's pledge that the Conservatives are the party of tax cutting, the new costings show that the tax burden will continue to rise. Katy Balls talks to James Heale and Kate Andrews. Join the Coffee House Shots team for a live recording on Thursday 11 July. Get tickets at spectator.co.uk/live. Produced by Cindy Yu.
With three weeks to go until polling day, Rishi Sunak this morning unveiled his prospectus for a Conservative government. There had been much talk that the Tory manifesto would have a big, bold policy to win back voters: perhaps the abolition of inheritance tax or maybe a referendum on the European Court of Human Rights. Such measures though were rejected in favour of a more modest tax reduction. With most of the manifesto briefed in advance, the headline-grabbing measure from today’s launch is the news that the Conservatives will abolish National Insurance contributions for the self-employed by the end of the next parliament. Sunak claims that this will be worth £1,300 to the average worker in a clear pitch to Essex’s white van man.
Day two of manifesto week will see the Conservatives launch their prospectus for government. At a chunky 77 pages, the document aims to set out what the Tories intend to do if given another five years. Rishi Sunak's party has already announced a slew of policies in the campaign (from mandatory national service to more help for pensioners). However, there will still be new ideas, with a focus on the economy through tax and welfare. Below is a run-down of what we can expect from this morning's announcement in the East Midlands. Taxation The centrepiece of the manifesto is likely to be a 2p cut to national insurance, taking the employee rate to six pence in the pound. Like Labour, the Tories have ruled out any increase to the rate of income tax, National Insurance or VAT.
Sir Ed Davey kicked off manifesto week by launching his party’s document this afternoon in East London. In true Lib Dem style, it is a weighty tome of 114 pages – the product of months of painstaking care by party strategists. Their task was to reconcile the desires of the activist base with the demands of Tory voters that the leadership is trying to woo across the South of England. ‘We are a genuine party democracy – sadly’, joked one of Davey’s aides to me at last year’s conference. That tradition means that, unlike the Conservatives, the Lib Dem document cannot be cooked up in a matter of weeks and take little account of their grassroots’ demands.
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Last night, leaders and senior representatives from seven political parties went head to head in the latest TV debate. But who came out on top? Katy Balls speaks to James Heale and Fraser Nelson.
14 min listen
Overnight, details of Labour's manifesto were leaked. There are several new policies, but how surprising are they, and how will they land with voters? Elsewhere, Rishi Sunak has denied he planned to skip D Day events altogether since our episode this morning. Can the row get any worse? James Heale speaks to Isabel Hardman and John McTernan, former political secretary to Tony Blair.
14 min listen
Conservative grassroots are up in arms over the installment of Tory party chairman, Richard Holden, as the candidate for Basildon and Billericay, a safe seat. The local association was given a shortlist of one by CCHQ. Katy Balls talks to James Heale and commentator and Conservative peer, Paul Goodman. Produced by Cindy Yu.
Today is the deadline for Conservative candidates to be selected – and one man made it just under the wire. Richard Holden, the party chairman, was last night selected for the constituency of Basildon and Billericay after an acrimonious selection process. Under party rules, if a seat is vacant within 48 hours of the nomination deadline, then the party can propose just one name. Holden was thus the only candidate put to local members. The two-hour long meeting was restricted to the association executive, with ordinary members unable to attend. Compounding the anger towards Holden is that he is the party chairman and thus held to a different standard Andrew Baggott, the association chairman, complained that ‘We’ve known that the seat needed a candidate since last October.
There’s something in the British waters right now – and it’s not Ed Davey on his paddleboard. After Liz Truss in Westminster and Humza Yousaf at Holyrood, could Vaughan Gething be the next leader of a UK government to find himself out of office in a record space of time? The Welsh First Minister this evening lost a confidence vote in the 60-member Senedd by 29 votes to 27. Labour holds exactly half of the seats with 30 members, with 16 Tories, 13 representatives for Plaid Cymru and a solitary Liberal Democrat. Two of Gething’s backbenchers were off sick and thus missed tonight’s vote, which followed an afternoon of passionate debate in the Welsh parliament.
‘I’m back’. Nigel Farage’s two-word tweet on Monday heralded the return of one of Westminster’s great celebrities. Barely 48 hours later, we are already seeing the impact that he is making in the polls. A YouGov survey published this afternoon suggests Reform are now on 17 per cent of the vote – just two points behind the Tories. It is the first polling done since Farage announced he was standing in Clacton and returning as leader. ‘It’s all about momentum’, he told me last week in Dover. Reform looks to have that in spades. The survey – which gives Labour a 21 point lead on 40 per cent – is also the first done by YouGov since it announced it was tweaking its methodology.