James Heale

With three weeks to go until polling day, Rishi Sunak this morning unveiled his prospectus for a Conservative government. There had been much talk that the Tory manifesto would have a big, bold policy to win back voters: perhaps the abolition of inheritance tax or maybe a referendum on the European Court of Human Rights. Such measures though were rejected in favour of a more modest tax reduction. With most of the manifesto briefed in advance, the headline-grabbing measure from today’s launch is the news that the Conservatives will abolish National Insurance contributions for the self-employed by the end of the next parliament. Sunak claims that this will be worth £1,300 to the average worker in a clear pitch to Essex’s white van man.

‘I’m back’. Nigel Farage’s two-word tweet on Monday heralded the return of one of Westminster’s great celebrities. Barely 48 hours later, we are already seeing the impact that he is making in the polls. A YouGov survey published this afternoon suggests Reform are now on 17 per cent of the vote – just two points behind the Tories. It is the first polling done since Farage announced he was standing in Clacton and returning as leader. ‘It’s all about momentum’, he told me last week in Dover. Reform looks to have that in spades. The survey – which gives Labour a 21 point lead on 40 per cent – is also the first done by YouGov since it announced it was tweaking its methodology.

Claims of stitch-ups in seat selections are as old as the Tory party itself. But the chaotic nature of this snap election and the Conservatives’ poor polling have produced an especially angry reaction among elements of the party grassroots. With Tory nominations set to close tomorrow, only one ‘safe’ seat now remains: Basildon and Billericay, the Essex stronghold that returned John Baron with a majority of 20,412 in 2019. For weeks, there have been rumours circulating that Tory chairman Richard Holden would switch to this seat from North West Durham. Today they have been confirmed. Holden is the sole name going forward to the local association at 8 p.m today.

He’s back. After all the teasing and all the rhetoric, Nigel Farage has finally announced his return as Reform leader. Having initially pledged that he would not stand at this election, he told a 100-strong room in Westminster: ‘I’ve changed my mind.’ He will now stand as Reform’s candidate in Clacton – the only seat Ukip ever won in a general election, back in 2015. ‘I cannot turn my back on the people’s army’ he said to the room. ‘I cannot turn my back on all those people who voted for us… I can’t let those people down, I won’t let those people down.’ If this is to be a change election, then Farage wants to lead the radical charge If this is to be a change election, then Farage wants to lead the radical charge.

Nigel Farage continues to tease Westminster with his endless ‘will he, won’t he?’ dance. The former Ukip leader is hosting an ‘emergency press conference’ at 4pm amid speculation that he will announce he is standing as a candidate for Reform. It’s been a rollercoaster fortnight for Farage. His initial response to the election was to rule himself out from running, preferring instead to focus on the United States. In the days that followed, Farage expressed his ‘huge regrets’ about that decision. His commitments stateside seem less extensive than many first thought, with Farage expecting to only do one event for Donald Trump in Detroit. His two speeches for Reform last week, meanwhile, received extensive media coverage.