James Heale

James Heale

James Heale is The Spectator’s deputy political editor.

Thursday

James Heale

Starmer owes Sunak for halving net migration

A year ago today, Rishi Sunak called the general election. Watching the rain-drenched prime minister struggling to deliver his speech, it seemed like the inglorious end to an unremarkable premiership. But 12 months on, the decisions Sunak took in office continue to yield results. This morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that net migration fell to 431,000 in 2024 – down almost 50 per cent on the previous year’s total. Overall, some 948,000 people came to the UK in 2024, down almost a third on the previous year That is thanks primarily to the package of measures which Sunak and James Cleverly, his Home Secretary, introduced at the end of 2023. These followed significant pressure from parts of the Conservative party, led by Robert Jenrick.

James Heale

What do ‘Labour values’ actually mean?

Keir Starmer’s appearance before Labour MPs on Monday was a crowded affair. Such was the level of excitement that organisers set up an overspill room in parliament. A fortnight after a dire set of local election results, the Prime Minister promised to fight the next election ‘as Labour’. Yet his troops seem increasingly divided as to what that actually means. More than two dozen MPs spoke at that meeting, criticising Starmer’s Gaza policy, migration speech and welfare cuts. It is those benefit changes that are causing the most immediate grief to the whips. Ministers want to restrict the eligibility requirements for disability payments, meaning only those with the most serious conditions can claim support. The hope is this will save £5 billion a year by 2030.

Wednesday

James Heale

Winter fuel U-turn and a rift at the heart of government

12 min listen

After sustained speculation and a local elections drubbing, Keir Starmer announced today at PMQs that the government will be softening their policy on winter fuel. Whilst it won’t come into effect for some time, they have agreed to ensure that ‘more pensioners are eligible for winter fuel payment.’  This comes hours after a memo was mysteriously leaked to the Telegraph. It contains an extensive list of recommendations from Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner to the Treasury, including a set of eight tax rises such as reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and altering dividend taxes. This amounts to a direct challenge to Rachel Reeves’s fiscal approach and preference for spending cuts.

Tuesday

James Heale

What has reaction been to the UK-EU deal?

18 min listen

Fallout continues from yesterday's summit and the announcement of a deal between the UK and EU – or is it fair to call it 'fallout' as, despite criticism over the deal from Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch, has the public got Brexit fatigue?  James Heale and Michael Simmons join Patrick Gibbons to talk about the reaction to the deal. Fisheries has taken up most discussion but Michael points out a lesser talked about commitment to energy policy. And, with the government keen to talk about it in tandem with recent deals with India and the US – and Gulf states soon, according to Rachel Reeves this morning – what's the political narrative around the summit? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

James Heale

Could Boris make a comeback?

Events have a useful way of illustrating changing fortunes in political stock. Keir Starmer's EU reset yesterday proved to be one such occasion. The fishing deal, mobility scheme and legal obligations prompted predictable fury from the Tory press. But one voice dominated in the chorus of criticism: Boris Johnson. It was the former prime minister's arresting description of Starmer as ‘the orange ball-chewing gimp of Brussels’ which led both the Telegraph and Mail’s write-ups today. A minority in his party view Boris Johnson as the only character big enough to eclipse Nigel Farage and his Cheshire cat grin Such prominence is not unsurprising.

Monday

James Heale

Starmer’s EU ‘reset’ risks pleasing no one

Keir Starmer has just wrapped up his press conference with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. The Prime Minister sought to bang the drum for his EU reset, citing his three 'driving principles': more jobs, lower costs and enhanced border control. Starmer boasted that his deal ensures 'unprecedented access to the EU market, the best of any country outside of the EU or Efta', while ensuring Britain remains outside the single market and customs union, with no return to freedom of movement. The text of today's agreement is still being scrutinised – yet the risk is it ends up pleasing neither Remainers nor Brexiteers. Both the UK and EU have agreed to 'work towards' a youth mobility scheme, but there is no detail on a cap or timeframe.

James Heale

EU-UK reset: ‘brexit betrayal’?

15 min listen

As EU leaders arrive in London for a summit hosted by Keir Starmer, there has been an announcement that the UK and EU have reached a deal. The UK has extended its agreement on EU fishing boats in British waters, while in return fewer checks on British food exports are expected. There have also been discussions about a defence pact, reduced tuition fees for EU students and access to electronic passport gates for British holiday-makers.  While we await further details, deputy political editor James Heale and director of the Centre for European Reform Charles Grant join Lucy Dunn to unpack what we know so far. Will the deal be an easy sell, or does it risk being seen as a ‘brexit betrayal’?

James Heale

Is Starmer’s EU meeting a ‘surrender summit’?

Ed Miliband's team appear to have also achieved their goals A pragmatic 'reset' or a 'surrender summit'? The spin has already started ahead of today's big UK-EU jamboree at Lancaster House. Three main items are expected to be announced today: a security pact, a declaration on global issues, and a 'common understanding' of future topics to be negotiated. Expect plenty of the greatest hits from the Brexit years: cries of 'betrayal', talks going 'down to the wire' and endless cliches about how 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.' As with every negotiation, there are likely to be both winners and losers from today's conference. A defence deal is likely, enabling greater co-operation and, potentially, further UK access to EU databases too.

Sunday

James Heale

Joe Biden diagnosed with prostate cancer

Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an 'aggressive form' of prostate cancer, according to a statement released by his office on Sunday. Biden, 82, was diagnosed on Friday, after he saw a doctor last week for urinary symptoms. The former US president and his family are now reviewing treatment options, with the cancer cells now having spread to the bone. Prostate cancers are ranked on a 'Gleason score' that measures, on a scale of one to 10, how the cancerous cells look compared with normal cells. Biden’s office said his score was nine, suggesting his cancer is among the most aggressive. Metastasised cancer is much harder to treat than localised cancer because it can be hard for drugs to reach all the tumours and completely root out the disease.

Saturday

James Heale

Debate: should Kemi Badenoch go?

30 min listen

Kemi Badenoch has come in for criticism since becoming leader of the opposition – for her energy, her performances at PMQs and her inability to galvanise her shadow cabinet. On this podcast, James Heale hosts the trial of Kemi Badenoch and asks whether someone else might be better placed to take the Tories into the next election and – more importantly – who that prince (or princess) across the water could be. The Spectator’s assistant content editor William Atkinson makes the case for the prosecution, while Michael Gove sets out why the Tories should stick with Kemi. Lara Brown, our new commissioning editor, acts as the jury. ‘If your house is on fire you don’t wait a year to call the fire brigade,’ says William.

Friday

James Heale

Can the assisted dying bill survive?

16 min listen

Labour MP Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill is back in the Commons for the report stage today – returning to parliament for the first time since major changes were made to the legislation. While Leadbeater has insisted the bill is coming back ‘even stronger’ than before, support among MPs appears to be fading. The mood in parliament was different to the second reading – which listeners will remember as a self-congratulatory affair, hailed as a ‘historic’ day by Leadbeater – but today’s debate was notably more ill-tempered. The majority of speeches seemed to oppose the bill rather than support it, and a late intervention by Esther Rantzen did not help.

James Heale

Parliament is changing its mind on assisted dying

There was a markedly different feel to today's debate on Assisted Dying. The last time the House debated Kim Leadbeater's Bill at the end of November, there was plenty of pep and self-congratulation among the speeches. But today, it was a decidedly more bad-tempered affair, as MPs met for the first day on the Bill's report stage, ahead of its Third Reading in a month's time. There are four obvious reasons why today saw a shift in the mood of the House. The first was the chop-and-change of the Bill's safeguards during committee stage, with roughly 150 changes since the last vote. Labour's Florence Eshalomi gave one of the most powerful speeches, declaring she was 'even more worried now' about the Bill than before, citing coercion fears.

James Heale

Inside Zia Yusuf’s Reform masterplan

On Monday, I sat down for a lengthy interview on Spectator TV with Zia Yusuf, the chairman of Reform UK. This weekend, many of his party's 677 newly-elected councillors will come to London to hear from him on how to make the most of their bridgehead in local government. One thing that Yusuf is clearly thinking hard about is the role of these councillors in crafting Reform's narrative for 2029. He believes that they will demonstrate that his party is fit to govern and expose the failings of the established parties in office. Much of his focus will be fighting the Home Office in court to stop asylum-seekers being put up in Reform–controlled areas.

Thursday

James Heale

Kemi Badenoch now leads the ‘Tinkerbell Tories’

Market choice has long been an article of faith in the Conservative party. But the Tories are less keen on competition when it comes to their own fate. Traditionally, the party’s historic market share ensured that, after some time in opposition, the pendulum eventually swung back their way. That rule no longer holds true. This month’s local elections offered a painful case study in consumer choice. With five serious parties on offer, just 15 per cent of voters chose to back the Conservatives. Polls suggest that, in a general election, the onetime ‘natural party of government’ would be reduced to barely two dozen seats. ‘Existential’ is the word favoured by many Tories to describe their party’s plight. Inevitably, some want to ‘sack the management’.

Wednesday

James Heale

Is Badenoch getting better, or is Starmer getting worse?

12 min listen

Prime Minister’s Questions today, and there was lots on the agenda. It is often a fool’s game to guess what the leader of the opposition will lead on, but today she had a wide choice of ammunition – from unemployment to welfare to the government’s new stance on migration to the war in Gaza. Kemi Badenoch looked assured when holding Keir Starmer to account on the Chancellor’s ‘jobs tax’ and on funding for children’s hospices. But can we attribute her performance to growing confidence in the role – or is the news just getting worse for Keir Starmer?

Monday

James Heale

Have Labour out-Reformed Reform on immigration?

14 min listen

Keir Starmer has kicked off what may be one of his most significant weeks in the job with a white paper on immigration. In it, the government details its plan to ‘take back control’ of migration, promising that numbers will fall ‘significantly’ – although no target number has been given. The plan includes the following: English tests for all visa applicants (and their adult dependants); an increase in the residency requirement for settled status from five to ten years; and new measures making it harder for firms to hire workers from overseas, including abolishing the social care visa and raising the threshold for a skilled worker visa. Many have interpreted the move as an attempt to stem the rise of Reform by beating them at their own game.

James Heale

Starmer: migration control is a ‘core Labour value’

This morning, the Home Office is publishing its long-awaited white paper on legal migration. The Home Secretary has already been out on the airwaves, billing it as a 'crackdown' on low-skilled visas. This morning it was the turn of the Prime Minister. Keir Starmer deployed the Downing Street bully pulpit to hail the package as a 'clean break' from the 'broken measures' of the past. Proposed changes include tightening English tests and pausing the recruitment of additional overseas care workers. The route to settlement for migrants will be extended from five to 10 years – with reductions for those who contribute to economy. A clampdown on graduate visas is expected too, with overseas graduates forced to leave the UK unless they get a graduate-level job.

Saturday

James Heale

Coffee House Shots Live with Zia Yusuf and Jacob Rees-Mogg

The post-mortem has begun on a historic set of local elections – but where does each party go from here? Is Reform unstoppable? Is Kemi the one to lead the Conservative rebuild? Do Labour really ‘get it’? Michael Gove, James Heale and Lucy Dunn are joined by special guests Zia Yusuf and Jacob Rees-Mogg to unpack these questions – as well as the broader ramifications of the local elections on British politics. Listen for: Zia’s understanding of why Reform did so well; Jacob’s concession that a Tory/Reform pact of some description could be the only way for the Conservatives to avoid extinction; and Michael’s assessment of whether Labour will force us closer to the EU. This podcast was originally recorded live at the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster on Wednesday 7 May.

Friday

James Heale

US trade deal: ‘a political win, not an economic win’

11 min listen

On Thursday afternoon Prime Minister Keir Starmer gave a speech about closing the long-awaited UK-US trade deal. Not that his announcement went without a hitch however; after first directing lobby journalists to the wrong Jaguar Land Rover factory in Coventry, Starmer then had his limelight stolen by the election of a new Pope. Although, Labour’s ‘historic’ trade deal has pipped the Pope on most front pages. The reception has been positive across government too, with many heralding a political win for Labour – just when they really needed one after the local elections. But is this an economic win as well? Critics say the deal is shallow, clearly just a start, and are at pains to point out that we are still in a worse trading position than earlier this year.

Thursday

James Heale

The changing face of Nigel Farage

On Monday night, a hundred Reform staff and donors met at a Marylebone pub to toast the local election results. A jubilant Nigel Farage addressed his troops, who ran up a five-figure bill. They had good reason to celebrate. With 30 per cent of the vote, Reform crushed Labour (20 per cent) and the Tories (15 per cent). They won 677 wards, ten councils and a fifth MP in the Runcorn by-election. Certain results were particularly satisfying: in Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North, Reform won more seats than any other party. Three speeches defined Reform’s campaign. First, there was the Birmingham rally at the end of March. Farage arrived on a JCB digger, presenting himself as a ‘Mr Fixit’ for the woes of ‘Broken Britain’.