James Heale

James Heale

James Heale is The Spectator’s deputy political editor.

Friday

James Heale

Inside Zia Yusuf’s Reform masterplan

On Monday, I sat down for a lengthy interview on Spectator TV with Zia Yusuf, the chairman of Reform UK. This weekend, many of his party's 677 newly-elected councillors will come to London to hear from him on how to make the most of their bridgehead in local government. One thing that Yusuf is clearly thinking hard about is the role of these councillors in crafting Reform's narrative for 2029. He believes that they will demonstrate that his party is fit to govern and expose the failings of the established parties in office. Much of his focus will be fighting the Home Office in court to stop asylum-seekers being put up in Reform–controlled areas.

Thursday

James Heale

Kemi Badenoch now leads the ‘Tinkerbell Tories’

Market choice has long been an article of faith in the Conservative party. But the Tories are less keen on competition when it comes to their own fate. Traditionally, the party’s historic market share ensured that, after some time in opposition, the pendulum eventually swung back their way. That rule no longer holds true. This month’s local elections offered a painful case study in consumer choice. With five serious parties on offer, just 15 per cent of voters chose to back the Conservatives. Polls suggest that, in a general election, the onetime ‘natural party of government’ would be reduced to barely two dozen seats. ‘Existential’ is the word favoured by many Tories to describe their party’s plight. Inevitably, some want to ‘sack the management’.

Wednesday

James Heale

Is Badenoch getting better, or is Starmer getting worse?

12 min listen

Prime Minister’s Questions today, and there was lots on the agenda. It is often a fool’s game to guess what the leader of the opposition will lead on, but today she had a wide choice of ammunition – from unemployment to welfare to the government’s new stance on migration to the war in Gaza. Kemi Badenoch looked assured when holding Keir Starmer to account on the Chancellor’s ‘jobs tax’ and on funding for children’s hospices. But can we attribute her performance to growing confidence in the role – or is the news just getting worse for Keir Starmer?

Monday

James Heale

Have Labour out-Reformed Reform on immigration?

14 min listen

Keir Starmer has kicked off what may be one of his most significant weeks in the job with a white paper on immigration. In it, the government details its plan to ‘take back control’ of migration, promising that numbers will fall ‘significantly’ – although no target number has been given. The plan includes the following: English tests for all visa applicants (and their adult dependants); an increase in the residency requirement for settled status from five to ten years; and new measures making it harder for firms to hire workers from overseas, including abolishing the social care visa and raising the threshold for a skilled worker visa. Many have interpreted the move as an attempt to stem the rise of Reform by beating them at their own game.

James Heale

Starmer: migration control is a ‘core Labour value’

This morning, the Home Office is publishing its long-awaited white paper on legal migration. The Home Secretary has already been out on the airwaves, billing it as a 'crackdown' on low-skilled visas. This morning it was the turn of the Prime Minister. Keir Starmer deployed the Downing Street bully pulpit to hail the package as a 'clean break' from the 'broken measures' of the past. Proposed changes include tightening English tests and pausing the recruitment of additional overseas care workers. The route to settlement for migrants will be extended from five to 10 years – with reductions for those who contribute to economy. A clampdown on graduate visas is expected too, with overseas graduates forced to leave the UK unless they get a graduate-level job.

Saturday

James Heale

Coffee House Shots Live with Zia Yusuf and Jacob Rees-Mogg

The post-mortem has begun on a historic set of local elections – but where does each party go from here? Is Reform unstoppable? Is Kemi the one to lead the Conservative rebuild? Do Labour really ‘get it’? Michael Gove, James Heale and Lucy Dunn are joined by special guests Zia Yusuf and Jacob Rees-Mogg to unpack these questions – as well as the broader ramifications of the local elections on British politics. Listen for: Zia’s understanding of why Reform did so well; Jacob’s concession that a Tory/Reform pact of some description could be the only way for the Conservatives to avoid extinction; and Michael’s assessment of whether Labour will force us closer to the EU. This podcast was originally recorded live at the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster on Wednesday 7 May.

Friday

James Heale

US trade deal: ‘a political win, not an economic win’

11 min listen

On Thursday afternoon Prime Minister Keir Starmer gave a speech about closing the long-awaited UK-US trade deal. Not that his announcement went without a hitch however; after first directing lobby journalists to the wrong Jaguar Land Rover factory in Coventry, Starmer then had his limelight stolen by the election of a new Pope. Although, Labour’s ‘historic’ trade deal has pipped the Pope on most front pages. The reception has been positive across government too, with many heralding a political win for Labour – just when they really needed one after the local elections. But is this an economic win as well? Critics say the deal is shallow, clearly just a start, and are at pains to point out that we are still in a worse trading position than earlier this year.

Thursday

James Heale

The changing face of Nigel Farage

On Monday night, a hundred Reform staff and donors met at a Marylebone pub to toast the local election results. A jubilant Nigel Farage addressed his troops, who ran up a five-figure bill. They had good reason to celebrate. With 30 per cent of the vote, Reform crushed Labour (20 per cent) and the Tories (15 per cent). They won 677 wards, ten councils and a fifth MP in the Runcorn by-election. Certain results were particularly satisfying: in Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North, Reform won more seats than any other party. Three speeches defined Reform’s campaign. First, there was the Birmingham rally at the end of March. Farage arrived on a JCB digger, presenting himself as a ‘Mr Fixit’ for the woes of ‘Broken Britain’.

Wednesday

James Heale

Do the Tories hate free trade? Plus, Reform hits new polling high

15 min listen

Lots to talk about today, including new polling which puts Reform on 29 points compared to the Tories on just 17. We’ve also just had the first PMQs since the local elections. But the trade deal announced yesterday between the UK and India is dominating the headlines, with many concerned about some of the concessions made – namely the decision to exempt some short-term Indian workers from national insurance as part of the new agreement. This comes barely a week after the local elections, where immigration has been widely considered the most salient issue.

James Heale

Tories slump to 17 per cent in poll

A new YouGov poll published this morning makes for grim reading for Kemi Badenoch's team. It finds that, in the wake of the local elections, Reform are now on 29 points compared to Labour on 22 and the Tories on just 17, with the Liberal Democrats on 16. That is the joint-lowest ever Conservative poll rating, tying with June 2019, during the dark days of the Brexit wars. According to YouGov: Naturally, these results are quite striking, but they are probably in line with what we would expect after the locals. With Reform performing so well Thursday, and the positive media coverage that is associate with such a result, it is not surprising they have received this boost. The test will be whether this is a blip or whether it will sustain over the coming weeks.

Tuesday

James Heale

Why Reform’s rise isn’t a surprise

13 min listen

It’s day five of recriminations after the local elections, with politicians, pollsters and journalists alike still trying to make sense of what just happened. On today’s podcast, Rachel Wolf gives her verdict: we should not be shocked by Reform’s surge. She argues that Nigel Farage’s success should have been predicted – that it’s the same, distinctly anti-political silent majority who ‘surprised’ us during Brexit, ‘surprised’ us in 2019 and are ‘surprising’ us now.  How will Labour respond? Will they U-turn on winter fuel? And is Boris Johnson the only one who can win back these disillusioned voters for the Tories? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Rachel Wolf, CEO of Public First and former adviser to Boris Johnson.

Friday

James Heale

Local elections live: is Reform unstoppable?

15 min listen

The word ‘unprecedented’ is often overused in politics, but these local elections have proved to be just that. The headline is: sweeping success for Reform.  Nigel Farage's 'teal tsunami' comes at the expense of the main parties – turning the two-party consensus on its head. The recriminations for Labour and the Tories have already begun. On the left, a number of MPs have broken cover and urged the government to shift its position on high-salience issues such as winter fuel. On the right, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership is looking increasingly shaky, with Tory MPs and staff warning that a step change is needed. Where do the main parties go from here? And can anyone stop Nigel?

James Heale

The Tories are doing worse than feared

These local elections – last fought at the height of the vaccine bounce of 2021 – were always going to be tough for the Conservatives. But the evidence thus far suggests the party has done worse than most initially feared. At 1:30 p.m, Tory losses were running at 44 per cent of total contests, according to YouGov’s Dylan Difford. That's worse than the equivalent 38 per cent figure for the Tories in 1971, the most dire set of local election results for a party on record. For Kemi Badenoch, who became leader six months ago today, it could spell trouble. There are precious few rays of light for the Tories There are many more contests to declare, of course, but that figure is the kind of ballpark which Badenoch is now in. There are precious few rays of light for the Tories.

James Heale

The Labour left turns on Starmer

After defeat, comes the recriminations. The bulk of council seats are still yet to declare but already the blame game within Labour has started after the loss of their Runcorn safe seat. A handful of MPs on the left of the party have started publicly demanding a change of direction by the government. Richard Burgon says ministers 'must urgently change course' by ditching disability benefit cuts and introducing a wealth tax. Diane Abbott remarks it has been a 'disastrous night' for Keir Starmer; Kim Johnson claims that only 'bold hopeful policies' can defeat 'the far right.' It is a sentiment echoed by Brian Leishman who reflects that 'the first ten months haven't been good enough.' Many within Labour will regard these criticisms as little more than the 'usual suspects' sounding off.

James Heale

Local elections: Reform seizes Runcorn in teal tsunami

14 min listen

Votes are being counted across England, but there is a clear early winner from these local elections: Nigel Farage. His party triumphed in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election this morning, overturning a 14,000-odd majority and winning by just six votes! Elsewhere, Andrea Jenkyns triumphed in Lincolnshire; Reform came second in a number of mayoral races; and their 38 per cent vote share in Runcorn matches the best-ever performance that Ukip achieved in a by-election. So far, the story is one of teal triumph – at the expense of the two main parties. Labour are already pointing to the difficulty incumbents often face at local elections, and will claim victory after narrowly holding out in three mayoral races: North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster.

James Heale

Reform seizes Runcorn in teal tsunami

Less than 10 per cent of council seats have declared thus far. But there already looks to be a clear early winner from these local elections: Nigel Farage. His party triumphed in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election this morning after a long night of drama. Only four votes separated Labour and Reform in the initial count. Just after 6 a.m, the final result came in: Reform on 12,645 votes and Labour on 12,639, a margin of just six. That is the closest by-election result since 1892 and is a testament to the effort that both parties invested. Between 350 to 400 Labour and Reform campaigners were out door-knocking yesterday, resulting in a high by-election turnout of 46.3 per cent. Farage's result suggests he and Zia Yusuf have built a formidable election-winning machine since July.

Thursday

James Heale

Michael Gove on how to spin a bad election

12 min listen

Voters have gone to the polls today for a historic set of local elections. The polling indicates a rough night for the two main parties and a good showing for Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens. So be prepared for a lot of election-night spin from both Labour and the Tories. To talk through the various ways in which politicians can claim victory in the face of defeat, James Heale is joined by our editor, Michael Gove – no stranger to the media round himself. They discuss the best candidates to face up to the media from both the Tories and Labour, as well as some of the greatest examples of post-election spin from history.

James Heale

Labour vs the unions

At the start of February, trade union chiefs assembled in No. 10 with their agenda for government. Top of the list was the Employment Rights Bill, which makes it easier to strike, picket and join a union. It will shortly pass into law: proof, Labour MPs say, of a Prime Minister willing to ignore squeals from business leaders. Yet the danger for Keir Starmer is that the unions, having banked this win, will keep returning for more. Starmer is perhaps the most union-friendly PM since the 1970s. Staff happily reel off a series of ‘wins’ he has already delivered for Britain’s 6.4 million trade union workers: a higher minimum wage, public sector pay rises and subsidies for Grangemouth refinery.

Wednesday

James Heale

Badenoch attacks Starmer over rape gangs

All politics is local – and no more so than this week. With various voters set to head to the polls across England tomorrow, the different party leaders were hoping to land their last-minute messages at today’s session of Prime Ministers’ Questions. For Kemi Badenoch, the approach seems to have been ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’. Labour’s stubborn refusal to hold a national inquiry into rape gangs is clearly making their front bench uncomfortable, months after the subject was first raised. So Badenoch chose to spend all six questions on the theme, winning today’s session comfortably. Badenoch’s peppy performance will cheer the Tories For the first half of the exchange, it was pretty much a stalemate between the two.

James Heale

What is Tony Blair up to?

'Just what is Tony up to?' That was what one Labour MP asked, quizzically, when I bumped into them in Westminster this morning. Blair has made quite the splash with his latest political intervention, writing an introduction to a pamphlet that criticises net zero. The former prime minister warns that the debate on climate change had become 'irrational', with people in rich countries no longer willing to make financial sacrifices 'when they know that their impact on global emissions is minimal'. Attempts to phase out fossil fuels are – in the short term – ‘doomed to fail'.