James Heale

James Heale

James Heale is The Spectator’s deputy political editor.

Tuesday

James Heale

Wales is looking ripe for a Reform surge

There are two pieces of news out this morning which offer a fillip to Reform's hopes of topping the Cardiff Bay elections next spring. The first is the long-awaited defection of former Welsh Secretary David Jones. The second is the publication of a new More in Common poll which shows Reform is set to win 28 per cent of the vote. This would translate into roughly 33 of the 96 seats in the newly-expanded Welsh parliament. At a general election, they would win 33 per cent of the vote. As I argue in the Telegraph today, Jones' move was long-awaited but is, nonetheless, important. He is, in some ways, the dream defection for Reform: an experienced Tory with much to offer, looking for little in return.

James Heale

Norman Tebbit: Thatcherite icon

Norman Tebbit, the longtime keeper of the Thatcherite flame, has died at the age of 94. His career in public life spanned more than 50 years, from his election to the Epping constituency in 1970 to his retirement from the House of Lords in 2022. A Monday Club member and ardent right winger, he might have been destined to spend his career in relative backbench obscurity. But the election of Margaret Thatcher in 1975 proved to be the making of his political career. Tebbit proved his mettle to the Iron Lady in the trade union battles of the 1970s. His criticisms of the closed shop – whereby members of a profession had to belong to a union – prompted Michael Foot on one occasion in 1978 to brand him a 'semi-house-trained polecat', an epithet he wore with pride.

Saturday

James Heale

Labour’s first year (in review) with Tim Shipman & Quentin Letts

22 min listen

Cast your mind back a year. Labour had just won a storming majority, promising ‘change’ to a stale Tory party that was struggling to govern. But have things got any better? In the magazine this week, Tim Shipman writes the cover piece to mark the occasion of Labour’s first year in government. He takes readers through three chapters: from Sue Gray (freebies scandal and winter fuel cut) to Morgan McSweeney (a degree of professionalisation and dealing with the Donald) to the point at which ‘things fall apart’ (assisted dying, the welfare vote and Reeves’s tears).

Friday

James Heale

Corbyn is back! … or is he?

13 min listen

Some sore heads on Coffee House Shots this morning, after last night’s Spectator summer party. But while we were having fun, a drama was brewing in the Labour party after it was finally confirmed that Jeremy Corbyn is starting a new left-wing party... or is he? The news was broken last night by another MP: Zarah Sultana, a long-time admirer of Corbyn. Elected as a Labour MP in 2019, she lost the whip last July for voting to lift the two-child-benefit cap. However, after discussions with figures within the Labour party, it has become apparent that Sultana took many of those involved completely by surprise. She has, in the words of one, ‘completely jumped the gun – no ideas had been properly decided’. It has plunged the new party into a crisis even before its creation.

James Heale

Corbyn allies blindsided by Zarah Sultana

After months of discussion, it has finally been confirmed that Jeremy Corbyn is starting a new left-wing party. The news was broken last night by another MP: Zarah Sultana, a longtime admirer of Corbyn. Elected as a Labour MP in 2019, she lost the whip last July for voting to lift the two-child-benefit cap. This week, she was reprimanded in the House for declaring 'We are all Palestine Action' – which will shortly be proscribed as a terrorist organisation, following the Brize Norton attack.  With readmission to Labour 'clearly impossible', in the words of government aide, Sultana decided that now was the time to announce her next steps.

Thursday

James Heale

Farage claims the mantle of Thatcher’s revolution

After a day of drama in Westminster, an intriguing party was hosted in the City. The Prosperity Institute, formerly Legatum, is not one of the more venerable think tanks, like the Fabians or the IEA. But the attendant crowd – a mix of centre-right wonks, spinners, thinkers and politicians – was a testament to the work that the institute has done since July 2024. A large marquee and well-stocked bar prompted one guest to remark that 'It felt more of a wedding than a wake'. That was a refreshing sentiment for many attendees, given the tendency of such events to become mournful, dour affairs since the election. But it also highlighted an important theme: will there be a happy union on the British right before 2029?

James Heale

Farage is the pacesetter of British politics

For the past year, Nigel Farage has served as the great pacesetter of British politics. Reform UK has shot to the top of the polls, as Labour and the Tories languish behind. On immigration, the economy and much else, it is his five-man band that sets the tune. It is the inverse of Norman Lamont’s jibe about ‘being in office but not in power’. From his new base near the top of Millbank Tower, Farage enjoys a commanding view of Westminster. The office, an explosion of teal decor, has a large press briefing room, which aides liken to the one in the White House. At a desk adorned with a porcelain Union Jack bulldog, Farage plots his next steps.

Wednesday

James Heale

Chancellor in tears during PMQs

11 min listen

There were extraordinary scenes in PMQs today. Rachel Reeves appeared distraught as the Prime Minister failed to guarantee her security when asked by leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch. It was brutal to watch, as the iron chancellor’s lip quivered and a tear rolled down her cheek. In many ways, you can’t blame her – with her headroom narrowing, she will be forced to find a further £5 billion worth of savings to allow for the government’s botched welfare bill. No. 10 has since clarified that Rachel Reeves has not resigned and will not be sacked, stressing that it was ‘personal’ matter that had upset her, ‘which - as you would expect - we are not going to get into. The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon’.

Tuesday

James Heale

Welfare vote: how many will rebel?

14 min listen

It’s D-Day for Labour’s welfare reforms. MPs will vote tonight on the party’s watered-down benefits cuts. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall formally announced Labour’s climbdown yesterday, telling MPs that the government had ‘listened carefully’ and was bringing in ‘positive changes’. Well, that’s one way of putting it. Even so, Labour is braced for a rebellion from dozens of MPs. We’ll know the full number at around 7pm, but it is not expected that there will be the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. On today’s podcast, we take you inside the debate including some of the most notable speeches and what the fallout could be for the government. Can we expect a reshuffle in the near future? Should Keir Starmer watch his back?

James Heale

How many Labour welfare rebels are left?

Tonight, we will find out just how many Labour welfare rebels there really are. A vote on the second reading of the government’s reforms is expected after 7pm. Liz Kendall, the Work and Pensions Secretary, is facing the Commons this afternoon as she tries to whittle numbers down to as few as possible. There are some encouraging signs. Meg Hillier, the Labour veteran who sponsored the initial rebel amendment, has now withdrawn it following £3 billion in concessions. However, Rachael Maskell, a serial soft left critic, has stepped into the breach and is now putting forward her own amendment to effectively kill the Bill. Hillier boasted up to 126 names; Maskell has 35 MPs backing her.

James Heale

Can these Farage rivals’ start-ups hurt Reform?

You wait ages for a right-wing movement to come along – and then two do so at once. Former MEPs Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe both launched rival outlets yesterday. Habib now leads 'Advance UK', a political party whose first aim is to reach 30,000 members. Meanwhile, Lowe has started 'Restore Britain', a 'bottom-up movement' which welcomes members from all parties. It aims to start legal challenges, fund investigative journalists and champion whistleblowers. Both are ex-Reformers who came off worst in a fight with Nigel Farage The two movements share several key features. The first is a championing of direct democracy, with both Advance and Restore urging members to join and shape their direction.

Monday

James Heale

How big will the Labour welfare rebellion be?

This afternoon Liz Kendall will update the House of Commons on her revised plans for welfare, following the concessions wrung out of her by Labour MPs. The Work and Pensions Secretary announced plans on Thursday night for £3 billion in additional funds. This will allow current claimants of personal independence payments to keep their current benefits. It ensures, too, that existing recipients of the health-related element of Universal Credit will have their incomes protected in real terms. The U-turn came ahead of tomorrow night’s vote on the welfare bill’s second reading. The whips estimate there will be around 50 Labour MPs who defy the government Ahead of Kendall’s statement, there is only one question that everyone is asking: how big will the Labour welfare rebellion be?

James Heale

Does Starmer still want to be PM?

13 min listen

There have been a number of navel-gazing interviews with the Prime Minister over the weekend. Across thousands and thousands of words, he seems to be saying – if you read between the lines – that he doesn't particularly enjoy being PM. In better news, Labour seems to have quelled the welfare rebellion. Liz Kendall is making a statement in the Commons this afternoon, in which she will outline the concessions that Labour has made on its controversial welfare bill. All in, the cost has spiralled by £3 billion per calendar year – which an already put-upon Chancellor will have to find. Whilst it remains the largest rebellion of this government, the number of rebels has shrunk to around 50.

Saturday

James Heale

Why Keir Starmer is worried about Wales

Keir Starmer's address to the Welsh Labour conference this morning was exactly the kind of speech we expected. With eleven months to go until a difficult set of devolved elections, the Prime Minister fell back on the greatest hits to play to the party faithful. Labour is the party with the 'interests of working people at their heart' and 'it always will be', Starmer said. The Senedd elections next May risk producing a 'backroom stitch-up between the Tories, Reform and Plaid' with 'working families left to pick up the bill.' He reeled off various achievements: the minimum wage increase, workers' rights, the carer's allowance and, most significantly, a 'record uplift to Welsh funding.' The Llandudno audience received it appreciatively enough.

James Heale

Steve Baker on how to organise a successful rebellion

25 min listen

As Labour rebels appear to have forced concessions from Keir Starmer over welfare this week, former Conservative MP Steve Baker joins James Heale to reflect on his own time as a rebel, and to provide some advice to Labour MPs. Steve, an MP for 14 years and a minister under Theresa May, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, tells James about the different rebellions he was a part of (from Brexit to Covid), explains how to organise a successful one and reveals how he has lost close friends when he has made the decision to compromise.

Friday

James Heale

Welfare U-turn: is Keir in control?

15 min listen

Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised ‘massive concessions’ over concerns about disability benefits. These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030.

James Heale

The knives are out after Labour’s welfare debacle

If the Labour party were a cinema, then it would currently be showing a double billing: Groundhog Day and Knives Out. For older heads, the Welfare Bill has echoes of the 2015 vote on Universal Credit; newbies MPs are now experiencing what it is like to be in a full-on government briefing war. Plenty of fall-guys are cited in today's newspapers: from Alan Campbell and the whips' office to Morgan McSweeney and the political operation in No. 10. The most immediate loser from the welfare U-turn is Rachel Reeves. Both politically and fiscally, the Chancellor is now in a tight spot The most immediate loser from the welfare U-turn is Rachel Reeves. Both politically and fiscally, the Chancellor is now in a tight spot.

Thursday

James Heale

Keir Starmer climbs down on welfare cuts

At last, Keir Starmer has bowed to the inevitable. Having first adopted a posture of defiance, then conciliation, the Prime Minister has tonight admitted capitulation on the great welfare revolt. The Guardian reports that the ringleaders of the 126 rebels who signed a wrecking amendment to the Welfare Bill are now claiming ‘massive concessions.’ It follows a tense afternoon of talks between Starmer and his MPs. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury’s finances The rebels say that they have been promised significant changes to planned cuts. These include moderating the Bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits.

James Heale

Can Keir Starmer save his Welfare Bill?

The Prime Minister has never been a huge fan of the press. But there is an apt Fleet Street phrase to describe his screeching shift in tone on the great Labour welfare rebellion: reverse ferret! Just yesterday, he was all bullish talk, claiming that the more than 100 Labour MPs who want to vote down his Welfare Bill were little more than 'noises off'. But this morning in parliament, he has adopted a much more emollient approach. It comes after six more MPs backed a rebel amendment overnight, bringing the total to 126 – around half of those Labour MPs who do not hold a government role. The marked change in language is now being taken as No.

James Heale

Small boats are causing Labour big problems

Summer is here – and for some in Labour it cannot come soon enough. After a tricky first year in office, the parliamentary party is in fractious mood. More than 100 of Keir Starmer’s MPs are raging against his welfare cuts; others are fuming about Israel. Some aides in No. 10 hope recess will give the government a much-needed chance to catch its breath. ‘Everyone needs a lie-down,’ says one party manager.  Yet in one corner of Whitehall, summer brings no respite. The Home Office is braced for a season of bad headlines: two more months helplessly watching small boats cross the Channel every day. Warm weather increases the likelihood of such trips.