Isabel Hardman

What a very long PMQs today, presided over by a very bumptious John Bercow. The Speaker let the exchanges run into what he called 'injury time', made a rather poisonous jibe at Labour MP Fiona Mactaggart over her private schooling, and told the Prime Minister that as far as he was concerned, he had finished an answer when the PM didn't believe he had.

Much relief in Downing Street this morning as Nigel Farage announces that he's not standing in the Newark by-election. Coffee House readers had the best insight into the Ukip leader's thinking when James posted the details of a conversation he'd had with Farage about the constituency. And his prediction that Farage may well decide to not stand was right. listen to ‘Nigel Farage says he's not standing in Newark: 'You have to pick your battles'’ on Audioboo Farage has bottled it, he's frit. That's what every relieved Conservative MP is saying this morning. It's true: Farage got to the cliff edge, looked down, and edged away from what he saw. He didn't fancy the battle and didn't think that he could beat the Conservatives.

Patrick Mercer has gone out in style. One Tory MP, hearing that the whips had tried to dissuade him from triggering a by-election fight with Ukip at an extremely inconvenient time for David Cameron, told me: 'It's a waste of time. He's determined to damage Dave. He's Colonel Nicholson in Bridge on the River Kwai!' Mercer has left Cameron a little present in the form of this by-election. Even if Nigel Farage announces today that he won't stand in the contest (and James's post from last night on the Ukip leader's thinking is a must-read), Ukip can still repeat its success in Eastleigh by fielding an impressive formerly unknown candidate.

Patrick Mercer has been banned from Parliament for six months, the Standards Committee has confirmed, following revelations by the Telegraph and BBC Panorama that he agreed to table questions in return for cash. He had already resigned the Conservative whip. The question now is whether Mercer resigns as an MP, triggering a by-election in Newark which the Tories could try to hold on 22 May? Nigel Farage today said he would consider standing in a by-election this year. In 2010, Mercer won a 16,152 majority, with Ukip coming fourth with 3.81 per cent of the vote.

Treasury Questions today was rather formulaic. George Osborne spent a little while congratulating himself on today's growth figures (only to be cut off by Bercow, who complained his answer was 'far too long'), and loyal Tory MPs congratulated him too. Many of them chanted the phrase 'long-term economic plan'. Some Labour MPs helped out by saying it too, which Osborne thanked them for. He has his own new phrase, which sounds a bit like a Backstreet Boys single: 'Britain is coming back'. 'Britain is coming back, alright,' he (nearly) told MPs, before demanding that Labour congratulate him on the GDP figures.

A smart move by Ed Miliband today to put pressure on David Cameron over the televised leaders' debates next year. Every time the Prime Minister is asked about these debates, he makes supportive noises while muttering about the 'right formula', but doesn't commit to anything. He has also said that he felt the debates 'dominated' the coverage of the 2010 election, which is as close as he'll come to saying that Nick Clegg's shiny new qualities at the time rather detracted from Cameron's own appeal which his strategists had been setting so much store by. But as the Prime Minister hasn't agreed to anything, Labour's trying to get ahead of the game and appear to drag Cameron into a studio.

How does a Prime Minister get a recalcitrant minister to agree to something? Well, if it's not going to make any difference to whether some legislation passes and the minister isn't directly responsible for the policy, then he can always let them avoid a vote, as he seems to be doing on HS2 today. But what if the minister is the one who needs to sign off on a policy change? I hear that David Cameron found himself in this situation late last year when trying to make some changes to the government's counter-extremism strategy. Baroness Warsi (not his favourite minister) was refusing to accept the changes, which the Prime Minister ambushed her over.

While some ministers have mysteriously disappeared today so that they don't have to vote in favour of the high-speed rail line that will cut through their constituencies, Minister for Civil Society Nick Hurd is busy explaining to his disgruntled local party why he isn't turning up to vote on legislation which affects his constituency of Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner but which he supports. I understand that Hurd has told local party members that though he thinks HS2 may be in the national interest, he understands their concerns about the link, and wants to try to get the very best deal for his constituents on compensation and the environmental impact of the line.

Whether or not key ministers whose constituencies are affected by HS2 turn out to vote at today's second reading of the legislation introducing it, the bill will pass this stage with a big majority thanks to cross-party support. Between 20 and 30 MPs are expected to defy the whip and either vote for a motion declining to give the Bill a second reading, or against the second reading itself. What will be interesting over the next few months is how many concessions critics of the Bill are able to eke out of the government, and whether this buys them off or not. When I spoke to Cheryl Gillan about her proposals for a longer tunnel under the Chiltern area of outstanding natural beauty, she told me that 'I'm not changing my position on the basis of that in any way, shape or form.