Isabel Hardman

Isabel Hardman

Isabel Hardman is assistant editor of The Spectator and author of Why We Get the Wrong Politicians. She also presents Radio 4’s Week in Westminster.

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Ukip should beware distracting from its Carswell coup with talk of other defections

Stuart Wheeler has just been boasting on Sky News that two more Conservative MPs are 'seriously considering' defecting to Ukip. Wheeler has been the broker in any potential defections, wining and dining potential converts before asking if they want a meeting with Nigel Farage. Not all of them have said yes to that second offer. It is, though, plausible that there are MPs who are still not rock solid in their decision to back the Tories all the way to the next election. The result of the Clacton by-election, how David Cameron plays the Europe question and how he manages the party over the next few months will determine whether they do go or not.

Isabel Hardman

Even without more defections, the pressure is back on Cameron

What will be the impact on the Conservative party of Douglas Carswell's defection? Even though there is some excitement this morning about other meetings that Ukip has held with Conservative MPs, it is worth pointing out that those meetings were firstly held a while ago, and secondly that a number of those MPs who did meet Stuart Wheeler decided not to meet Nigel Farage because that would have been a betrayal in itself of their party. Some did meet Farage, but decided not to make the leap. Carswell was one of those MPs who initially did not make that leap, so it is unwise to say that there will be no more defections. But when Coffee House spoke to most of those MPs yesterday, none of them had changed their mind as a result of this defection.

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Eurosceptic camp ‘weakened’ by Carswell defection

Douglas Carswell's defection today to Ukip is terrible for David Cameron. But it is also deeply inconvenient for his band of eurosceptic brothers. He was a key member of a powerful 'cell' of MPs who met regularly to discuss strategies for pushing the Conservative leadership further on European policy. One key colleague in this cell tells me that its members are as shocked as anyone else by the defection because 'Douglas was refusing to get involved in our shenanigans. It was difficult to get him to sign off on anything we wanted to do, he was incredibly loyal, so something serious must have happened over the summer to change his mind.' Carswell certainly hinted at conversations with the Prime Minister's advisers that may have changed his mind.

Isabel Hardman

Douglas Carswell has decided Cameron will squander his EU reform opportunity

As well as saying his decision is regrettable and counterproductive, the other Tory response to this morning's shock defection by Douglas Carswell is to point people to instances where Carswell has said that only David Cameron as Prime Minister in 2017 will guarantee a referendum. In April, he wrote on his Telegraph blog: 'In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.'   Suggesting he is inconsistent is at least a little more nuanced than smearing him as a 'headbanger'. But what Carswell's defection today tells us is that he doesn't actually think that referendum will be worth it anyway.

Isabel Hardman

Tory whips tell MPs: We will fight Carswell vigorously

The Tory whips have just sent their line-to-take on Douglas Carswell to MPs. Seen by Coffee House, the email repeats the Tory spokesman line that this is a 'regrettable and frankly counter-productive decision' as the only way to get a referendum is to vote Conservative. It adds: 'The Conservative party will contest the by-election vigorously, to ensure that the people of Clacton have a strong Conservative voice in this Parliament and the next.' But the question is whether many Tory MPs will be happy to put in the same kind of effort in Clacton as they did in Newark? Fighting a former colleague - and a respected one at that - is going to be very difficult for many backbenchers.

Isabel Hardman

David Cameron’s next big European mistake

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_28_August_2014_v4.mp3" title="Isabel Hardman and Mats Persson discuss Cameron's European way " startat=830] Listen [/audioplayer]David Cameron loathes European Union summits, and with reason: they seldom go well for him. He has been ambushed by the French, betrayed by the Germans, seduced by the Swedes and even outsmarted by a Luxembourger — Jean-Claude Juncker, whom he tried to stop becoming President of the European Commission. He’ll meet them all again this Saturday, in Brussels, as they begin divvying up the plum jobs under Juncker’s presidency. As usual, the odds are stacked against Cameron. By now, every EU member has nominated a commissioner to work in Brussels for the next five years.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Exclusive: 74 MPs support campaign against Bercow’s clerk appointment

The cross-party group of MPs opposing John Bercow's appointment of Carol Mills as Clerk of the House have now submitted their early day motion designed to stop the Speaker going ahead without scrutiny. The motion is co-sponsored by Tory Jesse Norman and Labour chair of the Backbench Business Committee Natascha Engel. Coffee House understands that 66 MPs from the three major parties have signed the EDM (all the more impressive given MPs are still on recess) and at least a further eight MPs will support the call for a debate on select committee pre-hearings before any appointment is made. The list of those 74 MPs who support this campaign is below.

Isabel Hardman

Rotherham: Fear of all the wrong things failed 1,400 children

'By 2005 few members or senior officers could say "we didn't know".' It was 'extraordinary' that no-one on the lead Labour group on the council could remember discussing these matters. 'The scale and seriousness of the problem was underplayed by senior managers'. 'The police gave no priority to child sexual exploitation, regarding many child victims with contempt and failing to act on their abuse as a crime'. In Rotherham, no-one seemed to care. And when they did care, it was more about what others would think of them than about children as young as 11 being raped.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Breaking: Boris Johnson to stand in Uxbridge

Boris Johnson has confirmed that he is going to apply to be the Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. His announcement comes on the same day that Nigel Farage is expected to be confirmed as the Ukip candidate for South Thanet, which suggests that the Conservatives are keen to use Boris as their anti-Farage weapon. More to follow...

Isabel Hardman

Revealed: the cross-party motion to stop Bercow in his tracks over clerk appointment

With just a few days before the House of Commons returns for the autumn term, the revolt against John Bercow's plan to appoint Carol Mills as Clerk of the House is growing. Coffee House has seen a motion that a cross-party group of MPs plan to table to stop the Speaker in his tracks. The motion, which I understand has the support of more than 50 MPs from all three main parties, including PPSs, does not attempt to block the appointment, but simply calls for a pre-appointment hearing and report (which could lead to a recommendation that Mills not be appointed). It says: 'That this House believes that the recommendation of Ms Carol Mills to be Clerk of this House should be subject to, and contingent upon, a pre-appointment hearing and report by a select committee.

Isabel Hardman

Salmond and Darling’s Jeremy Kyle debate reinvigorates campaign

Both camps in the Scottish independence debate have now has their shock: Alex Salmond was shaken to be beaten by Alistair Darling in the first debate, while a confident Darling seemed shaken last night that the First Minister wasn't giving identical answers to the questions he repeated from his initial victorious round. As we discussed on our View from 22 special podcast last night, it is very difficult to predict the impact of a resounding victory last night for Salmond on the final result.

Friday

Isabel Hardman

No partnership with Assad (and no scrutiny till summer’s up)

Philip Hammond this afternoon ruled out Britain working with President Assad in the fight against Isis, arguing that simply being aligned against a common enemy 'doesn't make us friends with someone'. It is nearly a year since the Commons rejected intervention in Syria against the Assad regime, and now figures such as Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Lord Dannatt are arguing that there may need to be some kind of alliance against the Syrian leader in order to defeat Isis. But the Foreign Secretary said: 'We may very well find that we are aligned against a common enemy, but that doesn't make us friends with someone It doesn't make us able to trust them, it doesn't enable us to work with them.

Isabel Hardman

The growing campaign against John Bercow’s choice for Commons clerk

The campaign against Speaker Bercow's plan to appoint Carol Mills as Clerk of the House is growing on the Tory backbenches. Coffee House has today been contacted by a series of Conservative MPs keen to emphasise the rise in opposition among their number. They claim 10 Tories have joined the campaign this morning and that more are ‘very concerned’ and considering joining what appears to be a loosely co-ordinated backbench push against the appointment taking place without a pre-selection hearing. One opponent says the swell in numbers has taken place because the revolt is now clearly cross-party rather than simply Conservative enemies of Bercow. The MP added: ‘No-one likes the idea of Parliament's view being overlooked.’ UPDATE, 4.

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Housebuilding is up: is that good news?

Good news on housing: this government is building more homes. New figures from the Communities and Local Government department show housing starts in the second quarter of 2014 increased by 18 per cent on the same quarter a year earlier and now stand at 36,230. Housing starts are the best picture we can get of how healthy housebuilding is right now. Completions, which naturally reflect an earlier situation but can also be affected by sudden changes in the economy that leave homes half-built (as in Ireland's ghost estates) are also up by 7 per cent on the same quarter last year and up by 6 per cent from the previous quarter. Annual housing starts in the year to June 2014 were 137,780, which is a 22 per cent rise on the previous year. Completions for the year were 114,440, up 7 per cent.

Isabel Hardman

David Cameron’s fog of war

It was clear that things were going wrong for David Cameron when he had to say that his position on Iraq was ‘very, very simple’. To use that phrase was to admit that things had become very, very muddled. They remain so now. The Prime Minister started the week with a robust line on the bloodshed in Iraq. He declared the start of a ‘generational struggle’ against Islamic extremism that would last for ‘the rest of my political lifetime’. Michael Fallon, his Defence Secretary, gave a Churchillian address to airmen in Cyprus, informing them that the British mission in Iraq was not simply humanitarian and would probably last for months. An order was given for RAF Tornado fighters to leave Norfolk and jet off towards this new theatre of war.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Lord Ashcroft’s poll shows a swing to Labour in Tory-held marginal seats

One of the most fascinating things about Lord Ashcroft's latest poll is not its content, but who in the Conservative party will be reading it. Naturally, those trying to hold onto or win in the marginal seats that the peer has polled will be very interested (but not cheered) by the findings. But besides those with a personal stake in individual seats, there will be two groups of MPs: those who comb through the full datasets that Ashcroft produces, and those who do not. These are, respectively, the pragmatists and the optimists in the party, and they naturally have quite different views of what will happen next May.

Isabel Hardman

Breaking: David Cameron returns to Downing Street after journalist beheaded

Downing Street has announced that David Cameron is returning to Westminster from his holiday. A Number 10 spokesperson said: 'If true, the brutal murder of James Foley is shocking and depraved. 'The Prime Minister is returning to Downing St this morning. He will meet with the Foreign Secretary and senior officials from the Home Office, Foreign Office and the agencies to discuss the situation in Iraq and Syria and the threat posed by ISIL terrorists.' That the apparent murderer of James Foley spoke with a British accent was not, according to Philip Hammond this morning, a surprise to those tracking radicalised Britons joining the conflict. But this development still has big implications, surprise or not. More to follow...

Isabel Hardman

My enemy’s enemy: Philip Hammond on Isis and Assad

Philip Hammond made quite clear on the Today programme that this government is 'utterly opposed' to everything that Isis stands for: it's difficult to say anything else when militants who clearly luxuriate in evil have beheaded a journalist who was covering their monstrous deeds. The Foreign Secretary was asked whether this country was prepared to 'wage war' on Isis. He dodged saying that the West was waging war, but explained that as Isis was doing this, we have to deal with them on that basis. Here's his full quote: 'Oh look, it's far too late for that debate: we are very clear that we are utterly opposed to the evil ideology of this organisation and the barbaric, cruelty that they have displayed.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Lib Dems reinstate Lord Rennard and drop disciplinary process

The Lib Dems are not taking any disciplinary action against Lord Rennard and have reinstated his membership, the party said this evening. Lord Rennard had been suspended from the party as part of the aftermath of allegations about his inappropriate conduct towards a number of women. A party spokesperson said: 'The Regional Parties Committee met this week to consider whether the party had been brought into disrepute by statements made by Lord Rennard, or on his behalf, following the publication of Alistair Webster’s conclusions. 'It decided not to proceed with the disciplinary process against him. This brings the matter to a close and means the suspension of his membership is lifted.