Ukip

One interesting nugget from Lord Ashcroft’s latest batch of polling is what his focus groups in two seats - Sutton and Cheam, and Elmet and Rothwell - had to say about the parties’ messages. Here’s a quick summary: Conservative: ‘Finish the job and get back on track’. Labour: ‘Vote Labour to save the NHS’, possibly adding ‘and stop the cuts’ or ‘and tax the rich’. Liberal Democrat: ‘Vote Lib Dem to balance the extremes - to split the difference’. Ukip: ‘Leave the EU and control immigration.’ Greens: ‘Vote Green to save the planet.

Who wants to work with who after the General Election? It’s a question that pundits like to chew over, partly because few politicians can afford to rule anything out with the polls suggesting quite such a jumbly outcome in May. But today two parties effectively ruled out a coalition with one another, even though they’re ideologically close. Grant Shapps was first, telling his press conference this morning that ‘I can rule out… we are not going to do pacts and deals with Ukip’. This afternoon, Ukip has released this statement: ‘UKIP are not promising pacts with anyone. For us politics is about getting something done, not about stitching up deals to get jobs for the boys. We think about you - not us.

Sloppy seconds are on the menu for both Ukip and the Conservative party this week. Many questions remain for the Tories after Ukip MEP Amjad Bashir defected to them following a Ukip party investigation. Now, Nigel Farage has claimed another Conservative for his side. Paul Bellis, a Tory councillor from Stockport, has left the Conservatives and joined Ukip. Bellis, who has served Bramhall South and Woodford for over two decades, made the decision to join Farage's party after he was deselected by the Conservatives. Not that this information has dampened Ukip members' spirits. Conservative to UKIP defection. Conservative Cllr Paul Bellis, on Stockport Council, joins UKIP.

If you were looking for clues as to how the result of the Greek elections will affect our politics in the United Kingdom, here’s a handy hint. This is the statement Nigel Farage has released, before the official result has even been declared: ‘This is a desperate cry for help from the Greek people, millions of whom have been impoverished by the Euro experiment. An extraordinary game of poker will now begin with Chancellor Merkel, with the ECB powerless to do much than be an observer.' Ukip will want to make the result and fallout from this election about the failure of European elites and the slow death of the euro.

Ukip MEP Amjad Bashir has defected to the Conservative Party this evening, following an internal party investigation. Tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph reports that Bashir, who was the party’s communities spokesman, says Ukip are a ‘party of ruthless self-interest’ as well as ‘pretty amateur’. He also says Ukip has a ‘ridiculous’ lack of policies. David Cameron has declared himself 'absolutely delighted'. Just before news of his defection broke, Ukip released a statement announcing Bashir had been suspended pending an investigation into ‘extremely serious’ issues: ‘The UK Independence Party has a zero-tolerance policy and takes the matters at hand extremely seriously.

When Simon Danczuk met Nigel Farage for a pint in December, the Labour MP was accused of plotting a defection to Ukip. While Danczuk denied this at the time, his wife Karen appears to be warming to the idea herself. Karen, who announced that she will stand down as a Labour Councillor from her Kingsway ward, got better acquainted with Ukip members at a recent debate on the NHS. Quick photo with @DanJukes17 & @jackduffin UKIPs finest. KD pic.twitter.com/GLlfwbBHy9 — Cllr Karen Danczuk (@KarenDanczuk) January 19, 2015 Now, Mr S hears rumours that a photo of the selfie queen actually wearing a Ukip badge is currently doing the rounds for the right bidder. If published, it wouldn't be the first time a photograph has got Karen into hot water.

One  reason that Ukip seems rather quiet at the moment is that it doesn’t have very much policy to talk about. And one reason for that is that there’s a row going on over the slow progress of the party’s manifesto. The Times today says Ukip has sacked Tim Aker from writing the manifesto - as Seb pointed out recently, he did have rather a lot to do, what with being a Ukip councillor, fighting for the party in a marginal seat and writing the manifesto - because he was running behind deadline. But one thing we can be certain of is that Ukip’s manifesto, when it does come out, will play super-safe on the NHS.

Although Nigel Farage referred to his new political rival Al Murray as the first 'serious opponent' he has encountered in South Thanet, not all of Ukip are amused that The Pub Landlord is running for the seat their leader is after. David Coburn, the Ukip MEP for Scotland, has got himself embroiled in a Twitter spat with the Oxbridge educated comedian, accusing him of 'mocking the voters of Thanet South'. @DavidCoburnUKip @Independent did I go to a better Uni than you? Ah well — Al Murray (@almurray) January 15, 2015 @DavidCoburnUKip @Independent having a punt at my education not much better. — Al Murray (@almurray) January 15, 2015 @DavidCoburnUKip @Independent *your. There's that Uni education again.

Nigel Farage has performed a useful public service this week. Yes, really, he has. The UKIP leader, you see, is a believer in Root Causes. He is, in fact, a Root Causer and, like every member of that miserable tribe, liable to see every event as confirming the righteousness of his own longstanding, stale-breathed, prejudices. You see we - the west generally - bring all this trouble upon ourselves. At home and abroad. It's western foreign policy that explains and motivates Islamic extremism and it's uncontrolled (sic) immigration that's given it room to flourish in France, the United Kingdom and other countries. How very convenient. The idea that the Charlie Hebdo murders are in some way our own fault is hardly a new one and nor is it any longer confined to the ghastly left.

Following the success of the Tories' last anti-UKIP strategy session, I've been leaked details of the latest election planning at CCHQ: [...] I say, what's the most damaging - and widely-held - perception about the Conservatives? Hmmm. That we're the party for the rich? Most unfair, I think we can all agree. Right, moving on, what's next? Let's cut inheritance tax.  Hurrah!   It's the least we can do for ordinary wealthy Britons...  If it weren't for Ed Miliband this election would be over by now. Thank heavens for Ed, then.

Has one Ukip defection become less likely? Before Christmas, top Tories were falling over themselves to tell Basildon and Billericay MP John Baron how much they valued him and how seriously they were taking his demands for proper compensation for nuclear test veterans. Baron was very high on the list of MPs likely to defect to Ukip, and did little to assuage the fears of his colleagues by saying things like ‘never say never’ when asked if he might leave the Tories. But this week Ukip selected a candidate in his constituency, which suggests that the party has given up on the Tory MP moving over to join the People’s Army.