Uk politics

Here is what I have learned about this morning's cabinet meeting: 1) The Prime Minister is still refusing to rule out a no-deal Brexit, in spite of pressure to do so from a number of ministers – but most notably from the Work and Pensions Secretary of State, Amber Rudd. In respect of May's attitude to no-deal, the PM was "inscrutable as always", according to one of those in the meeting. But another has told me that Theresa May confirmed she would make a statement if her deal is – as expected – rejected by MPs next week. No minister expects her to announce at that juncture that the UK will go full steam ahead to exit from the EU on 29 March without a deal, on WTO rules. So her colleagues feel there has been some unspoken movement by her away from no deal.

Make no mistake, Britain is on the brink. This week Parliament will re-start the debate on the Prime Minister’s Brexit Deal, having lost a month. In all likelihood, the House of Commons will vote down a deal that deserves to be defeated. Parliament is deadlocked. Our country is bitterly divided. It is no exaggeration to say we face the greatest political and constitutional emergency we’ve had in peacetime. This is not in response to any external threat or challenge. The tragedy is we have done this to ourselves. But, because of that, we can step back from the brink. It doesn’t have to be like this. There is still time to change course. To solve any problem, you need to understand how it came about.

Theresa May doesn’t yet have anything concrete to offer MPs who have concerns about her Brexit deal. On Marr this morning, May repeatedly talked about how she was seeking ‘assurances’ on the backstop. But she clearly hasn’t got them yet. Interestingly, May indicated that the assurances she’s looking for are around a start date for the new relationship; rather than a time limit or clearer exit mechanism. This would mean that the backstop would not be ‘indefinite’ as there’d be a start date for the future trade relationship. However, this approach immediately raises two questions. First, would the future relationship apply to the whole of the UK or just Great Britain?

The Prime Minister does have a strategy to prevent what she sees as the chaos of a no-deal Brexit. The flaw in it is that the strategy probably has a shelf life of just over one week. Because her strategy is to persuade MPs to back her version of leaving the EU in a vote on 15 or 16 January, and in the words of one of her senior ministers: “I will be shot for telling you this but we are going to lose that vote”. So what then? Well, amazingly, no one around her – not her ministers, not her officials – seem to know. Why not? “She won’t tell us” says a minister. “We go to see her. We give her our ideas about what to do next. She listens politely. She even asks questions. But none of us have a clue whether she agrees, whether she is persuaded.

Jeremy Corbyn has a message for the people of Milton Keynes: I condemn you. The Labour leader delivered his criticism at an event in 2011 after voters in the town booted out pro-Palestinian Labour MP Phyllis Starkey. He told the audience: ‘I condemn the people of Milton Keynes for the mistakes that they made in the May election but they will have a chance for (sic) correct their mistakes hopefully in the very near future.’ https://twitter.com/TheGolem_/status/1080886732701253633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Unfortunately at the two general elections since Corbyn made his comments, the people of Milton Keynes failed to learn their lesson by twice electing two Tory MPs.

Jeremy Corbyn has come under pressure this week to back a second referendum after a YouGov poll found that seven in ten Labour members wish for it to be party policy. So far, Corbyn has resisted such calls for a so-called People's Vote. In this week's Spectator, I explain why the Labour leader is reluctant to go near one – at least for the time being. With the Tories in turmoil over Brexit, it’s quite possible — some cabinet members believe probable — that the government may soon collapse with a new general election called. This is Labour's great hope – and Corbyn hopes to trigger a snap poll by defeating the government in a confidence motion after the meaningful vote.

Westminster conversation about Brexit often suffers a time lag. MPs frequently speak with surprise about things that actually happened months ago and which are regarded as old, established facts in Brussels and policy wonk-world. The backstop is the best example: outlined in the December 2017 Joint Report of the UK and EU negotiators, its meaning and necessity still came as a novelty to some MPs – resigning cabinet ministers included – in June; and to others in November. (The 2017 election result is another instance: it took many Tory MPs at least a year to realise it meant there could be no Commons majority for the hardest form of Brexit; some still haven’t worked that out.