Ollie Lewis

One of the most depressing concepts in physics is entropy – the principle that all systems tend toward disorder and breakdown. That’s all I could think of while reading today’s headlines praising the so-called “reset” deal between the UK and the EU. I know the tricks of the EU's trade – and “tricks” is the key word here We’re being told this deal represents a new direction for Britain and its neighbour, a “new era”. It’s nothing of the sort. If anything, this “deal” is more of a repeat than a reset, a continuation of a long story of sellouts. I can claim some experience here. Having served as the UK’s deputy chief negotiator in the trade talks with the EU in 2020, I spent hundreds of hours sitting opposite the EU’s negotiating team.

Brexit: The Uncivil War makes a big claim right at the start: to show us what really happened in the EU referendum two years ago, and to give us insight into the inner workings of the Vote Leave campaign. It’s an enticing offer but (ironically for a film about allegedly dodgy campaign pledges) I’m not really sure it ever really delivers on this promise. Now, I admit that I’m as far away as possible from a ‘neutral’ or ‘impartial’ reviewer. Having campaigned for Brexit long before ‘Brexit’ was even a word, and having served as the Research Director of Vote Leave, I realise it’s pretty much impossible for me to approach this drama with a completely open mind. I’m also a close friend of the hero (villain?

  1. Leaving the EU would hurt the UK’s ability to trade with it.  The fearmonger’s favourite argument. But fear not: the global economy has changed dramatically since Britain joined the EU in 1973, seeking entrance to a common market. The World Trade Organisation has brought down tariff rates around the world; even if we didn’t sign a free-trade deal with the EU, we would have to pay, at most, £7.5 billion a year in tariffs for access to its markets. That’s well below our current membership fee. 2. Three million jobs will disappear.  A bogus figure, heard often from the likes of Nick Clegg.

Mark Carney has been a very successful Governor of the Bank of England. Since coming to office in June last year, the British economy has gone from strength to strength. Although Mr Carney can’t take all the credit, on his watch unemployment is falling rapidly and business confidence is at a record high. His appointment and policies have been met with general approval by the UK’s business leaders, which is to be welcomed. So it is a shame that yesterday there were reports that the Governor thinks an EU referendum would be ‘bad for the economy’. The claim stems from the Governor’s comments on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday.

It’s at times like this I’m glad I’m not a Europhile. I imagine that Lord Lawson’s article in today's Times is causing Brussels-lovers up and down the land a number of headaches this afternoon, not least because it is incredibly detailed and hard to find fault with: The EU’s desire for 'ever-closer union' is undiminished? Accurate. British businesses are being hindered by the EU’s daft regulations? Very true. We need to start looking beyond Europe for growth opportunities? Another tick. From a purely economic perspective, Lord Lawson’s argument is spot on. However, there is a political problem with Lawson’s article which I can’t seem to get my head around - why can’t we try to renegotiate our way of these meddlesome directives?