Uk politics

Tuesday

Robert Peston

May’s disastrous defeat makes a Brexit delay inevitable

From our UK edition

There is no coming back for the Prime Minister's Brexit deal from the scale of a defeat by 432 to 202, the worst defeat by a Government for more than a century. In all normal circumstances a Prime Minister would resign when suffering such a humiliation on their central policy – and a policy Theresa May herself said today would "set the future of this country for generation". But these are not normal times and Theresa May is not a normal prime minister. She said tonight she would fight on – subject of course to the Commons not in effect turfing her out if it backs Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in the government that will happen tomorrow. It is highly unlikely that May's Tory and DUP critics will vote with Corbyn to eject her and the government.

Tom Goodenough

Theresa May’s Brexit deal rejected by MPs by 432 to 202 votes

From our UK edition

Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been decisively rejected by MPs who voted 432 to 202 against the Prime Minister’s withdrawal agreement. The Prime Minister had told MPs to back her deal or risk "letting the British people down" but politicians voted down her deal in the biggest government defeat in the Commons in British history. The previous record was by a margin of 166 votes in 1924, when the Labour minority government lost a vote by 364 votes to 198. A total of 118 Tory MPs rebelled against the Government in the crunch vote tonight. Jeremy Corbyn responded to the PM by confirming that he would table a vote of no confidence in the government, which will be held tomorrow.

Isabel Hardman

Has Theresa May just revealed her Brexit plan B?

From our UK edition

Theresa May has just finished a speech in which she made clear – without using those words – that the Government is going to lose tonight’s meaningful vote and that she is now planning for the next Commons confrontation on Brexit.  She managed to get one MP, Sir Edward Leigh, to withdraw his amendment on the basis that she was happy to work with him on ‘creative solutions’ to the backstop. She also promised that ‘the government will work harder at taking Parliament with us’ on Brexit.  But this harder work doesn’t seem to include any moves towards working with Labour on some kind of national unity movement to stop a no-deal Brexit.

Isabel Hardman

Labour MPs threaten to push Corbyn into supporting a second referendum

From our UK edition

Labour MPs who want a second referendum are threatening to table their own motion calling for one next week if their frontbench fails to do so. Jeremy Corbyn is expected to call for a vote of no confidence in the government once Theresa May's deal is defeated in the Commons this evening. The Labour leadership has refused to do this until now because it doesn't want to hold a vote it is certain to lose, but the pressure has now grown so great for a vote that it will be extremely difficult for Corbyn to dodge it, even though the DUP have said they will stop the government from falling so long as there is a chance that the backstop will not pass.

Katy Balls

Bercow vs Government, Part VIII: Speaker rejects Murrison amendment

From our UK edition

Relations between the Speaker and the government have taken yet another turn for the worse this afternoon. Ahead of tonight's vote on Theresa May's doomed Brexit deal, ministers had hoped that an amendment tabled by Andrew Murrison – calling for an end date on the backstop – could win backbench support and save the Prime Minister from humiliation this evening. However, John Bercow had other ideas – and did not select the amendment for the vote. Instead, Bercow selected four amendments from Labour, SNP, Edward Leigh and John Barron. This means three seemingly government friendly amendments – from Murrison, Hugo Swire and a group of Labour MPs – have been left off.

James Kirkup

The question that Leavers and Remainers still can’t answer

From our UK edition

Why did Britain vote for Brexit? As Parliament gazes into the abyss, the question seems worth asking, even if I don’t pretend to be able to offer a simple answer. And that’s the point, really. Britain is teetering on the brink of a grand failure of policy and politics because, insofar as anyone involved has even wondered why a majority of voters rejected Britain’s political-economic settlement in June 2016, they have generally come up with simple, shallow answers. Among No Deal Leavers, most explanations for the referendum result these days refer to “control” (especially over immigration policy) or “sovereignty” or some nebulous idea of the economic opportunities that lie in different trading arrangements.

Ross Clark

Brexiteers owe Dominic Grieve and Gina Miller a debt of gratitude

From our UK edition

If, as seems inevitable, the Commons votes to reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal later today – thereby sparing Britain from the humiliation of being trapped in the backstop, forced to accept EU rules without having a say in them – the hero of the hour will be Dominic Grieve. Him and Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Kenneth Clarke, Sarah Woolaston and a gaggle of other Remain MPs. Why? Because it was only thanks to them that the Commons is getting its meaningful vote on the Brexit deal. It was they who rebelled against the government in December 2017 to make sure that such a vote would be held.

Steerpike

John Bercow only has eyes for Labour

From our UK edition

While much remains uncertain when it comes to how Brexit will play out in the coming days and weeks, it is clear that John Bercow will play a pivotal role. To the dismay of government figures, the Speaker has of late refused to follow parliamentary norms – choosing to ignore precedent just last week when he accepted a Dominic Grieve amendment even though clerks had advised him not to. On Monday, Conservative MP Matt Warman asked the Speaker whether there were any more precedents he planned to change on the coming days. Bercow did not take the question kindly and chastised the executive for questioning his authority – and impartiality.

Robert Peston

Theresa May will lose tonight but she will still cling to her Brexit deal

From our UK edition

Theresa May will lose the vote tonight on her Brexit plan, widely seen as the most important vote in Parliament since the early years of the Second World War, and yet nothing of importance may change – or at least not immediately, at least. How can that possibly be – especially since she could well lose by a record-busting and humiliating margin of more than 100 votes? It is because she is very unlikely to acknowledge that her deal is dead, and will instead announce shortly after the defeat that she will have another go at negotiating with EU leaders to amend it so as to make it acceptable to MPs. To be clear this is surmise, though based on conversations with officials and ministers.

Monday

Tom Goodenough

Theresa May survives no confidence vote in the Commons

From our UK edition

Theresa May has survived a vote of confidence in the Commons by 325 votes to 306. Tory MPs – as well as the DUP's members – backed the Prime Minister in tonight's crunch vote. The decisive support from the Conservative party meant that the votes of Labour, SNP and Lib Dem MPs were not enough to oust the PM. Theresa May responded to winning the vote by inviting Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street for Brexit talks. But the Labour leader – who earlier said May was leading a 'zombie government' – said he would only enter into discussions if the PM ruled out a no deal Brexit.

James Forsyth

Is John Bercow preparing to pull off another procedural trick?

From our UK edition

There has just been another series of pointed exchanges between government backbenchers and the Speaker over procedure. Following the Sunday papers and the Boles plan released earlier today, several Tory MPs sought reassurance on procedure from John Bercow. Bercow was strikingly unwilling to give it. He approvingly quoted Willie Whitelaw’s dictum that bridges are best crossed when you come to them. If Bercow’s intention was to wind up the government frontbench and Tory MPs, he certainly succeeded. When Bercow gave a lengthy reply to Kevin Brennan's point of order about how people who act as the lickspittles of the whips’ don’t get much respect, one minister heckled.

Isabel Hardman

May’s new Brexit pitch: my bad deal is better than no deal

From our UK edition

If you're a not particularly impressive leader of a political party preparing a response to any statement given by Theresa May, the easiest phrase that you can lazily reach for is 'nothing has changed'. You know it will apply to anything the Prime Minister says about how she has improved her Brexit deal.  All three main party leaders appeared to conform to those easy predictions this afternoon. Theresa May stood up and tried to convince MPs that she had secured important changes to the deal that meant they should support it tomorrow. Jeremy Corbyn replied that nothing had changed and that there should be a general election, while Ian Blackford argued that the voices of the people were being ignored and that May should extend Article 50.

Isabel Hardman

John Bercow steps up his battle with ministers

From our UK edition

John Bercow clearly isn't backing down in his stand-off with ministers. Today he opened a new front in the House of Commons, taking aim at the government for refusing to allow MPs who are pregnant or on maternity leave to have a proxy vote. The issue came up when Harriet Harman made a point of order about her colleague Tulip Siddiq, who has had to postpone the caesarean section for her baby so that she can vote tomorrow. Harman asked the Speaker whether he could give the Hampstead and Kilburn MP a proxy vote, but Bercow replied that this was not something he was able to do himself. He continued by arguing that it was 'essential' for the Commons to maintain its reputation as it is 'starting to take an interest in the modern world' that the matter of proxy votes be resolved.

Steerpike

Chris Williamson on the joys of Venezuela

From our UK edition

Venezuela is a country in crisis: inflation hit one million per cent last year and GDP has plummeted by half since 2013. Those who dare stand up to president Nicolás Maduro risk finding themselves locked up – or worse. Many have opted to leave: three million migrants and refugees have fled the country in the last few years. But ever the optimist about the joys of socialism, Labour MP Chris Williamson has managed to find some good news about Venezuela – the country’s social housing programme is 'on track': The Corbynista MP shared a link to a news story on a website called Venezuela analysis. But while the site promises independent analysis of the country, Mr S suggests that Williamson might be better getting his news about Venezuela from elsewhere in future.

Katy Balls

Can the Murrison amendment prevent humiliation for May?

From our UK edition

In Parliament a glimmer of hope has emerged ahead of the vote on Theresa May's seemingly doomed Brexit deal. It's not that it suddenly has a hope of passing as it is – instead it's that a backbencher amendment could carve a way out of the Brexit deadlock. Usually loyal backbencher Andrew Murrison has tabled an amendment for the withdrawal agreement which sets an expiry date for the backstop for December 31 2021. A time limited backstop is something the EU has rejected but Tory Brexiteers (and the DUP) demand one if they are to support May's deal. Such a change would most likely require the reopening of the withdrawal agreement – something both May and the EU have said they are reluctant to do.

Steerpike

Mel Stride’s picture perfect ‘no deal preparations’

From our UK edition

With only one day to go until the vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal, the government has been doing its best to convince wavering MPs that supporting it is the only way to avoid the catastrophic consequences of no-deal Brexit. Which may explain why the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Mel Stride, was snapped today carrying these scary notes on a piece of paper (conveniently sticking out of his folder) as he left a meeting in 10 Downing Street: https://twitter.com/PoliticalPics/status/1084827663146119170 But if Mr Steerpike could offer a word of advice to the government: if you're looking to 'inadvertently' show MPs how bad no deal would be, don't steal your tactics from the comedy TV show The Thick of It.

Steerpike

MP’s best friendship lies lost in the Commons

From our UK edition

As the Brexit vote looms closer, the whips are on a hunt for MPs. Not so much to discover how they'll be voting, though, but to find the owner of a lost ring. A message went out to MPs from their whips this morning saying that 'a silver ring with the inscription "forever best friends" has been found in the toilet in the voting lobby'. Mr S wonders what sort of an MP has a 'forever best friend' - and whether the ring was in fact discarded after the forever friendship was shattered by Brexit tensions. There are more than enough candidates for that...

James Forsyth

The EU’s latest effort won’t help May pass her Brexit deal

From our UK edition

The letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk ahead of tomorrow’s vote is not the cavalry arriving. It is more a restatement of what has gone before than anything else. If the EU is to make a big play to help Theresa May’s deal pass it will come before a second vote; as one Secretary of State lamented to me last week the EU has already written off this vote. But the letter is a reminder that May hasn’t sold this deal as well as she could. As the letter states, ‘the Withdrawal Agreement is also clear that any new act that the European Union proposes should be added to the Protocol will require the agreement of the United Kingdom in the Joint Committee’.

The Spectator

Where every Tory MP stands on Brexit: the full list

From our UK edition

As things stand, it looks inevitable that Theresa May's Brexit deal will be defeated in the House of Commons on Tuesday, but what happens afterwards is the great unknown. While a number of MPs have voiced their opposition to May's deal and no deal, the majority still have not made clear what they would support in its place. And unless there is a parliamentary majority for another option, Britain will leave the EU on 29 March without a deal by default. So what is there a majority for in the Commons? In an attempt to find out, Coffee House has compiled the public Brexit position of every single Tory MP. Their views have been split into five different categories: supporting May's deal, no deal, a second referendum, Norway, or 'Undeclared’.

Sunday

Nikki Da Costa

The threat of a Brexit coup in Parliament is real – and terrifying

From our UK edition

Today’s Sunday Times splash – about a ‘coup’ being plotted by Tory rebels to take over Brexit – looks and feels like it was dreamed up in No. 10. It wasn’t and the story shouldn’t be dismissed because of that. The Speaker’s actions last week have changed the calculations: something previously judged procedurally impossible (for rebels to call the shots in parliament) is now a genuine risk. In my view, it risks the very stability of the government. The story so far: that Dominic Grieve and Oliver Letwin are seeking a way to seize control of business in the Commons, so that backbench motions take precedence over government motions. This matters because, until last week, a whole load of options were unthinkable.