From our UK edition
When Theresa May's Brexit deal last came before the Commons it was voted down by 202 votes to 432 – a historic defeat. A total of 118 Tory MPs rebelled against the Government in the January vote. To avoid a repeat, the Prime Minister needs to persuade those rebels that her deal has changed for the better.
From our UK edition
There was no triumphalism in Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker’s press conference. Nor was there much detail. May talked about how the joint interpretative instrument meant that the backstop could be challenged and taken to arbitration if the EU was trying to apply ‘the backstop indefinitely’. What May did not mention was how this arbitration mechanism would work. Multiple Cabinet Ministers think, after discussion tonight, that the arbitration does not refer to the ECJ. If that is the case, it will convince a slug of Tory MPs that this arbitration mechanism has teeth. The second aspect is the aspiration to have alternative arrangements in place by the end of December 2020, in other words at the end of the transition.
From our UK edition
When Jess Phillips first entered parliament in 2015, she quickly made the headlines after she told Diane Abbott to 'f--- off' when they had a disagreement over whether Jeremy Corbyn had appointed enough women to his shadow cabinet. Since then, Phillips is frequently in the news for speaking up on the political issues she cares about – recently going viral for a speech on olives in which she lambasted the government for earnings caps on immigrants. I'm delighted to have Phillips as a guest on The Spectator's Women With Balls podcast. When we spoke last month, we discussed what it's like to go viral, growing up in a political family and her perspective on class in Westminster.
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What does the Independent Group actually stand for? We know what they are against: Brexit and anti-Semitism. But so far the fledgling group has been somewhat shy about coming up with policies. With TIG MPs this week reportedly entering talks with the Electoral Commission about become a political party, they had better get a move on. Only Mr S. suspects the task won't be an easy one, given that one of their members – former Tory MP Anna Soubry – seems to take a difference stance to the bulk of their colleagues on most issues. To help out, Steerpike has compiled a list of where Anna Soubry stands compared to her new colleagues: Brexit: It's safe to say that when it comes to Brexit, TIG and Soubry are a match made in Parliamentary heaven.
From our UK edition
The government’s efforts to get changes to the backstop have run into a brick wall in Brussels. The EU thinks, with justification, that MPs won’t allow no deal and so feels under no pressure to make significant concessions. As I write in The Sun this morning, one minister fully briefed on the negotiations says ‘we’re at what the hell do we do time’ But without a change to the backstop, Theresa May’s deal is going down to another heavy defeat on Tuesday. That won’t be the end of the matter, though. For the next day, parliament will vote against leaving on March 29th with no deal. Parliament will then almost certainly vote to request an extension to Article 50. At this moment, the UK would be in the EU’s hands.
From our UK edition
How unsophisticated can Theresa May get in her efforts to persuade MPs to back her crumbling Brexit deal? Earlier this week we had her £1.6 billion bribe for “left behind” constituencies of Labour MPs who might just be tempted to back her deal. Yesterday, in Grimsby, she turned to her own backbenchers, telling them: "Reject [the deal] and no-one knows what will happen. We may not leave the EU for many months. We may leave without the protections a deal provides, we may never leave at all." She is of course right: no-one knows what will happen on Tuesday nor in the coming three weeks before 29 March. It does her no credit that she has allowed it to get to such a late stage with businesses still having no idea how to prepare for Brexit, or no Brexit.
From our UK edition
An estimated 600 children were withdrawn for the day from a primary school in Birmingham last week. A rather disturbing video has since been circulating on social media, showing scores of Muslim parents with their young children in Birmingham, shouting “shame, shame, shame”. What has caused such a reaction? Parkfield, a primary school in Saltley, teaches a programme called No Outsiders which is designed to encourage children to be “happy and excited about living in a community full of difference and diversity”. It covers issues such as race, gender, ability, sexual orientation, gender identity, age or religion. One part of the programme, on LGBT rights, offended some Muslim parents who saw it as a promotion of homosexuality.
From our UK edition
After weeks of speculation, Michel Barnier has finally revealed the concession Brussels is willing to grant Theresa May on the backstop. The only problem is one could argue it's not actually a concession. Instead, it's the Northern Ireland-only backstop the UK negotiating team previously vetoed. This afternoon the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator told ambassadors the EU is willing to give Britain a unilateral exit from the UK-wide parts of the backstop plan for Northern Ireland. He has since taken to social media to set out exactly what the EU is offering: https://twitter.
From our UK edition
Theresa May is in Grimsby today putting in a last ditch effort to convince MPs to back her deal when it returns to the House of Commons on Tuesday. The view in both Downing Street and the Cabinet is that as things stand it will be rejected for a second time. With no concession on the backstop as of yet from Brussels, there is little chance of Brexiteers rallying around the Prime Minister's deal. May's speech this lunchtime has only served to hammer this point home. The Prime Minister used the set piece to turn her ire on Brussels for the lack of progress. May warned EU leaders that it wasn't just MPs who have a choice to make – the EU must too: 'Just as MPs will face a big choice next week, the EU has to make a choice too. We are both participants in this process.
From our UK edition
Philip Hammond’s whole career as Chancellor has been leading up to this moment. Next week, in his Spring Statement, he’ll say that MPs have a choice: back the EU’s deal, or go for a no-deal Brexit for which government has failed to prepare. Without any serious leadership for the latter, it’s unlikely to pass. The Prime Minister is snookered. He has won. He was against Brexit and has not quite stopped fighting those who advocated it – on the radio yesterday he distinguished himself from “the Brexit wing of the party.” But he has second best: a Brexit deal which is EU membership in all but name. Perhaps to be followed by a proper Brexit, perhaps not. And why is Theresa May unable to negotiate anything better?
From our UK edition
The Foreign Secretary on Today has reinforced the Prime Minister’s Grimsby warning that if she loses the meaningful vote on Tuesday it will be the EU’s fault. Hunt warns EU leaders to take care the impasse “doesn’t inject poison into our relations for many years to come” and warns that if the EU doesn’t make further backstop concessions “people will say the EU got this moment wrong”. This is a million miles from how EU leaders see the state of negotiations. According to a source they believe the “EU has already made its choice to be as helpful as possible on giving legally binding reassurances that the backstop will apply only for as long as necessary”.
From our UK edition
Government loyalists are grim-faced today. There is no sign of a breakthrough in Brussels and Theresa May’s deal appears to be heading for another defeat on Tuesday. May’s problem is that everyone thinks that they get what they want by voting against her deal. As I say in the magazine this week, lots of ERG types have convinced themselves that they’ll eventually get the Brexit they want, come what may. If the Brexit deal goes down on Tuesday, the Commons is highly likely to compel the Government to request an Article 50 extension. At that point, the UK will be a supplicant: it’ll be up to the EU to decide whether to grant one, how long it will be for and what conditions are attached.
From our UK edition
With Theresa May's departure expected later this year, a host of ambitious males are keen to parade their wares. Frontrunner Boris Johnson has lost weight and is the RSPCA’s new pin-up boy, while Sajid Javid is trying to show his strength through the medium of ostracising Isis brides. On Wednesday night, it was David Davis's turn to make his mark. The former Brexit secretary appeared in noticeably slender form for an event at the Adam Smith Institute where he began proceedings by introducing himself as a 'romantic radical'. Looking back on his university years at Warwick, Davis appeared to imply that he had an appeal to the Left as well as traditional Tory voters.
From our UK edition
Brexit is breaking British politics. Both the traditional powers have been shipwrecked by this storm and show no signs of knowing how to repair their ruined timbers. This is the sort of thing everyone understands. If the Tories enjoy more support than Labour this is only because Labour is so very bad. It is not because Theresa May’s Government commands the confidence of the people. In any case, her party is slowly but surely devouring itself over Brexit. Again, everyone knows this. But what if we’re approaching this from the wrong direction? Instead of observing how Brexit is destroying the Conservative party, perhaps we should wonder if, actually, Brexit has both made and saved Theresa May’s Government. It might be the only thing holding it together.
From our UK edition
When Steve Bannon was ousted from the White House as president Donald Trump’s chief strategist, the populist provocateur and former Hollywood executive was back running staff meetings at Breitbart less than 24 hours later. The rumpled, grizzled, grey-haired Bannon – who has a fondness for philosophy, history, political bloodsport and green camo jackets – is constantly on the move for a new project. In the United States, the big project was getting Trump elected and ensuring the New York billionaire never forgot about the part of America that loved him and the part that cringed at the mention of his name.
From our UK edition
What wonderful powers that Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, possesses. At a stroke, he has just succeeded in increasing the size of the economy by three per cent. Well, sort of. Only last November, the Bank of England claimed that a no-deal Brexit could cost the UK economy between 4.75 and 7.75 per cent of growth over a three year period, relative to what would happen under May’s deal. Yesterday, he changed his tune a little, telling the House of Lords economic affairs committee the effect of a no-deal Brexit on the UK economy in three years’ time would be between two and 3.5 per cent smaller than he had previously stated. Why the improvement? It is all, apparently, down to Carney’s clever contingency plans, as well as a few other positive developments.
From our UK edition
Geoffrey Cox is in Brussels attempting to achieve a breakthrough on the backstop. So far, the Attorney General's efforts have not gone entirely to plan – with the word in Brussels that the first night of talks with Michel Barnier went badly. If Cox cannot win a significant concession on the backstop that will allow him to change his legal advice, there is little chance of Theresa May's deal passing next week. However, even if he is successful in his aim there's a chance it won't be enough to win over Tory eurosceptics. As I write in the i paper, there is an increasing pessimism within the Cabinet that May can pass her deal next week. There are rebels returning to the fold, but at nothing like the speed that would be needed to reverse a 230-vote defeat.
From our UK edition
Sir Ivan Rogers was in conversation at the Institute for Government. This is an edited transcript of his thoughts on why no-deal isn't a sustainable outcome, whether there should be a public inquiry into Brexit – and why, when it comes to negotiations, the difficult bit is still to come: Ivan Rogers: Once you get into the trade deal and the economic deal and then associated security and other deals, this is actually the complex bit still to come. It's much more complex and involves much more of Whitehall, and should involve Westminster a lot more than the exercise to date. I'm not disparaging the exercise to date, but that's solely about withdrawal terms and then a rather vague political declaration.
From our UK edition
If racism is to succeed in corrupting institutions and countries it needs authorisation from the elite. The popular caricature of the racist as a white working-class man, or superstitious east european peasant, or shabby paranoid academic, shows not only class bias, but a lack of understanding that what transforms extremism from poisonous men muttering in corners to political movements with the power to ruin lives, is the authorisation given by leaders and intellectuals. A party can have racist members – as the Conservative party undoubtedly does. But because its leadership is not anti-Muslim their effect is constrained to personal abuse. I don’t mean to diminish it. If my experience is typical, race-based insults are something you never forget.
From our UK edition
Chris Grayling is back in the news – and once again it is for all the wrong reasons. The transport secretary is facing calls to quit over his handling of the Brexit ferry debacle, which led to the Government having to shell out £33m of taxpayers' money to Eurotunnel. Grayling said 'however regrettable the Eurotunnel court action was, we had to take a decision to protect the interests of the country in the circumstances of a no deal Brexit'. So who is to blame? The whole Cabinet, according to Grayling, who insisted the decision that led to the payout was taken collectively. Of course, this is far from the first time the hapless Grayling has found himself in hot water.