Uk politics

Friday

Peter Hoskin

The public aren’t seeing Brown’s “green shoots”

We've been rather starved of opinion polls over the past week, which is probably no bad thing.  But this PoliticsHome poll on the economy has come along to give us at least something to mull over.  And its findings aren't good news for Labour. First, only thirty-four percent of repondents think that the economy has turned a corner into recovery.  And, crucially, only 36 percent are willing to give Labour "a lot" or "some" credit for their handling of the recession (down from 40 percent last August).  That's against 29 percent saying "not very much," and 34 percent saying "none at all". As we saw on Wednesday, Labour is eager to seize on any potential "green shoots," and sell them as successes for government policy.

David Blackburn

Dirty tricks are off and running

The Tories are bracing themselves for an election campaign of smears and dirty tricks. Today the sniping begins. Attack dog Liam Byrne has criticised Cameron’s ‘Broken Britain’ speech in the following terms: “I think when people read what Mr Cameron is saying today they will see that it is quite an unpleasant speech…Mr Cameron is seizing upon one appalling crime and almost tarring the people of Doncaster and the people of Britain.” Cameron is not tarring anyone; he is clear that Doncaster was one of a number of extreme incidents (Baby P being another) that exist alongside a groundswell of anti-social behaviour. The terms ‘Broken Britain’ and ‘moral recession’ are sensational but Cameron has a point.

David Blackburn

Obama is playing politics<br />

FDR was plainly confident when he indicted the "practices of unscrupulous money lenders" during his 1933 inauguration address; Obama’s speech yesterday was scented with desperation. He exchanged eloquence for provocation. “If these folks want a fight a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have.” Bankers do not want a fight with a President seeking cheap political capital; they want to turn profits and do business. Obama’s proposals frustrate that aim - by carving up corporations and neutering investment banking on the grounds of excess risk. As Iain Martin notes, Obama has departed from the G20’s emerging narrative, and though the details are imprecise there is no doubt of the direction Obama is headed. It is the wrong one.

Daniel Korski

Cutting drugs

On Wednesday, Baroness Kinnock told the Lords that a number of Foreign Office departments had been hit been hit by an estimated £110 million budget shortfall, and that an anti-drug program in Kabul has been cut.  Coming after British dismay at President Karzai's desire to put Afghanistan's former (and widely-discredited) Interior Minister, Zarar Ahmad Moqbel, in charge of the country's anti-drug effort, the cuts are bound to cause concern. Afghanistan is the world's leading supplier of opiates, trafficked as opium, morphine and heroin. Over 90 percent of the heroin on the UK's streets originates from Afghanistan. Though cuts to counterterrorism programs are probably ill-advised, there is less reason to worry about the impact on any anti-drug efforts.

David Blackburn

Has Brown got anything to hide?

Proof positive that Brown listens, sometimes at any rate. The Prime Minister will give evidence to the Chilcot Inquiry before the election. Chilcot has been resolute in his wish to keep politics out of the probe, which suggests that No.10 may have put in a call following the mounting clamour for Brown to appear. Brown is something of master in expressing defiance with a single line: “I have nothing to hide,” he averred on Wednesday. Might this sudden decision prove to be, as Sir Humphrey might have said, courageous? As Daniel Korski noted two weeks back: 'Brown’s role in the Iraq War, not that of Blair, that is the most obscure part of Britain’s modern history. As chancellor, Brown was the second most powerful man in government. He held the purse strings.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Will the civil service help Cameron rein-in his frontbenchers’ spending ambitions?

In his Telegraph column today, Ben Brogan asks one of the most important political questions of all: do the Tories have a plan for dealing with the mess they face in government?  They talk tough on debt and spending, for sure, but the details are still kinda lacking.  Is there anything behind the rhetoric?  And, if there is, will they pull it off?   Of course, the only proper answer is: let's wait and see.  The proof of this particular pudding will come in the event of a Conservative election victory and, then, in the Emergency Budget that George Osborne has pencilled in for June or July.

James Forsyth

Confusion surrounds the Tory position on the Muslim Council of Britain

The government broke off relations with the Muslim Council of Britain over Daoud Abdullah, its deputy secretary-general, signing the Istanbul declaration, which the government believed encouraged attacks on British forces if they attempted to enforce a weapons blockade on Gaza. Last week, the government retreated; inviting the MCB back in despite Daoud Abdullah’s signature remaining on the document. The question now is whether the Tories are going to go along with this surrender. The first test of this is a fundraiser that the MCB is holding on the 22nd of February. The invitation boasts that Jack Straw and Nick Clegg will be attending and says that Chris Grayling has been invited but his attendance has yet to be confirmed.

Peter Hoskin

Forget inheritance tax – Tory marriage policy is Labour’s new favourite target

For some time, Labour has been trying to push the line that behind the Cameron facade there's an old-school, "nasty" party waiting, drooling, for an opportunity to engineer the country as they see fit.  Over the past couple of days, it's become clear that they've struck on a new variant of that attack. Yesterday, we had Ed Balls on Today saying that the Tories' marriage tax break was a "back to basics" policy.  And, today, as Paul Waugh reveals, Harriet Harman described the same agenda as "modern day back to basics. It is back to basics in an open-necked shirt.

David Blackburn

Poor communication is damaging the Afghan mission

He may be a chateau-bottled shyster, but there is no better communicator of policy than Alastair Campbell. He has penned an article in the FT arguing that the lesson that should have been learned from the Iraq war was how to communicate strategic ideas and objectives. The lack of clarity that came to define Iraq now afflicts Afghanistan: ‘It was hard to discern that approach in the run-up to the Afghan surge being announced, or after it. The surge should have been followed by co-ordinated communications across the alliance. That job is not being done with the vigour and consistency that it should, and the systems of co-ordination have weakened since Iraq.

David Blackburn

Ultimately, Brown is responsible for these anti-terror cuts

Seriousness comes naturally to Gordon Brown and yesterday he gave a speech detailing how Britain is defending itself by striking at the heart of the ‘crucible of terror’. What Brown has in seriousness of delivery, he lacks in realism. Britain has not fought for such a sustained period since the high-water mark of empire; but the ambitions of two prime ministers, and to be fair the severity of the threat that Britain faces, have outstripped resources; Britain is now completely over-extended. Hours after Brown’s speech, Baroness Kinnock divulged that anti-terror measures run by the Foreign Office have been cut – anti-narcotics campaigns in Afghanistan and de-radicalisation programmes in Pakistan.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

What will Labour do with the extra £1.5bn?

Labour’s tax on banks that pay big bonuses was budgeted to yield £550 million. But because the tax has failed to change behaviour it is going to bring in far more than that, at least 2 billion according to recent reports. This raises the question of what will Labour do with the extra 1.5 billion? The responsible thing to do would be to use it for deficit reduction. We can expect, Darling who has said that his “number one priority is to get the borrowing down”, to take this position. But we can expect the more party politically minded members of the government to want to use this money for extra public spending. For example, one can easily imagine them wanting to use the money to help meet their target of ‘eradicating’ child poverty by 2020.

Daniel Korski

David Miliband’s big idea: an Af-Pak-India Council

An idea that has received little media attention in Britain, but is giving Foreign Office diplomats sleepless nights, is David Miliband’s push for a "regional stabilisation council" involving Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, to be unveiled at the international conference scheduled for January 28. The idea is seen as an innovate way to bring the three countries together, while at the same time allowing the Foreign Secretary, who will formally host the conference, to show leadership and initiative. The pretender to the post-election Labour throne needs something to get rid of his “Banana Boy” epithet. So far, however, the idea is not meeting with local support.

Lloyd Evans

Cameron fails to even ruffle Brown’s feathers

Here’s a phrase. Dave blew it today. That’s a harsh verdict because he used PMQs to focus on Haiti and the Doncaster torture case. Naturally Haiti dominates the news and we all know that vulnerable kids have a very special place in Dave’s heart. But this is a political scrap and he needed to show a bit of muscle in the house. Rather than cultivating his finer instincts he should have strutted into the cockfight and blasted some of Gordon’s feathers off. As it was he elicited little of value from the Doncaster case and dug himself into an unwinnable dispute about whether the review should be published in full. Gordon had a good day, bordering on excellent. At times it looked as if the entire show had been stage-managed to make him look in control and at ease.

Peter Hoskin

Still divided

Another snippet from Jonathan Freedland's column which deserves a separate post: "Labour has a harder task [on the economy], pressing voters to engage with the abstract arguments, asking them to accept that the deficit is not the only threat that matters. That effort is undermined by interviews like Alistair Darling's with the FT [yesterday], in which he promised swingeing cuts to reduce the deficit. 'Ridiculous,' fumed one cabinet colleague. 'That's the Tory position, not ours.'" As I blogged last week, there are still clear divides in the government's position on the public finances – and that despite Alistair Darling's strengthened position after the Hoon & Hewitt coup attempt.

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 20 January 2010

Stay tuned for live coverage from 1200. 1200: Still waiting.   You can watch live coverage here. 1202: And here we go.  Brown leads with condolences for fallen soldiers, as well as for those affected by the earthquake in Haiti. 1203: First question from Danny Alexander on rural Britian losing out on broadband services.  Brown says that 95 percent of the country will have fast broadband soon - and that efforts will be taken to deal with the remaining 5 percent. 1204: Tony Wright on the "outrage" of the Cadburys take-over.  Brown says that has received assurances from Kraft that British workers will keep their jobs.  There are rumblings to the contrary, though... 1205: Cameron now.

Peter Hoskin

The worries behind falling unemployment

Expect Labour to make much of today's employment figures, which show that unemployment fell by 7,000 in the three months to last November.  Already, Yvette Cooper has claimed it as a success for "government investment".  While Gordon Brown will surely repeat that message in PMQs. But is it really testament to government action?  Or is it a result of a naturally improving economy (which, let's not forget, is taking longer in the UK than most other developed nations)?  Well, a study commissioned by the Spectator from Oxford Economics found that Brown's "investment" would "save" around 35,000 jobs in 2009 – but then destroy considerably more jobs from this year on.

Peter Hoskin

The Brown brand

How do politicians achieve that "unspun" look?  Why, by emulating the spin of a soft drinks company, of course.  This from Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian: '[The Labour campaign team have] taken a look at the branding of Innocent smoothies, hoping the authentic, unspun look might fit their own 'unairbrushable' product, G Brown. They were heartened by the reaction to the retouched Cameron poster, which suggests people are sick of the slick trickery associated with the age of Blair.' In which case, here's the Innocent website so you can get an insight into the Brown brand (although I doubt he'll provide two of your five-a-day).

David Blackburn

Drink isn’t the curse of the working classes, but its easy availability is

It must be stated from the outset - most drinkers are responsible and drink only on special occasions, with other people or by themselves. However, binge drinkers, or that caste of drinker whose evening is neatly rounded-off with a stomach pump, are a minority, albeit a growing one. Relaxed licensing laws and the government’s refusal to strong-arm the drinks industry have led to roving bands of Sally Bercows traversing town centres, and who end the night by falling out of their dresses and into a taxi, or onto a pavement.

Tuesday

David Blackburn

Geoff Hoon, silent assassin

And so it came to pass that nothing came to pass. Geoff Hoon gave evidence to the Chilcot Inquiry on the same day as a convention of anaesthetists visited the QE Conference Centre. Perhaps their presence contributed to the somnolent proceedings. Beneath the apparent narcolepsy, Hoon made two important points. First, he was convinced that the intelligence contained in the two dossiers established the threat of WMD “beyond doubt”, which will assist Blair when he gives evidence, especially after Alastair Campbell’s recent ‘clarification’.

Peter Hoskin

Darling struggles to find consistency

Alistair Darling's got an interview in today's FT, and you know the story by now.  Yep, the government thinks that borrowing needs to come down drastically; extra growth would go towards cutting the structural deficit; there'll be the "toughest settlement" on public spending for twenty years, only it shouldn't be introduced too quickly; those bankers aren't quite as evil as previously suggested; and so on and so on.  As we've said before, it's certainly an improvement on that fatuous investment-vs-cuts line.  But you've got to wonder whether the public will find it credible, in view of what Brown & Co. have said, and done, in the past.