Uk politics

Our Brexit fate is in the hands of France's president Macron – which is "not a wholly comfortable state of affairs," in the euphemistic words of a minister. What this minister means is the Prime Minister and her close colleagues are a long way from being convinced Macron will underwrite EU president Donald Tusk's proposal for the UK to be granted a year's delay to Brexit, with a break clause to allow us to leave the EU earlier if all the political and legal niceties can be completed earlier.

The irony of the stalemate in the cross-party Brexit talks is that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are not that far apart on the issue, as I say in The Sun this morning. They might use different language, but what they want is really quite similar. But while they may not be that far apart, their parties are. A deal would require not one of them, but both of them to be prepared to split their parties. If Theresa May was to soften her deal to try and get Labour support, she would exacerbate the divide within her own party. I am told that in the talks, the government has tried to point out to Labour that the deal does, in the backstop, effectively include a customs union. But Labour has been insistent that the phrase ‘permanent customs union’ must be in any deal.

There has been considerable and widespread cynicism about the talks between the Government and Labour about a compromise that could break the Brexit deadlock. But those close to the negotiations, led today by David Lidington and Keir Starmer, believe there is at last a "plan with a chance," of securing a positive vote from MPs for the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement, without which there can be no managed exit from the EU. It would involve a Government committing to staying in the Customs Union, "dynamic" alignment with EU rules covering workers’ rights and the environment and giving the Commons a vote on whether the whole package would be subject to confirmation in a referendum. "Is all this real?" I asked informed sources. "Yes," they said.

Theresa May has this evening found enough people to fill the various ministerial holes left in her government by the recent slew of resignations. Some of these holes have been gaping for rather a long time: there has been no Minister for Disabled People since 13 March, for instance. But their lack of replacements until now has excited very little attention, largely because it's not clear what else the government aspires to do at the moment other than exist. The appointments announced this evening are as follows: Justin Tomlinson MP to be a Minister of State at the Department for Work and Pensions. James Cleverly MP to be a Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Exiting the European Union.

Yvette Cooper’s bill, requiring the Prime Minister to seek an Article 50 extension to avoid no deal, has passed by 1 vote—going through all its Common stages in a single evening.  The passage of this bill at such speed even though Theresa May has said she’ll ask for an extension, is another demonstration of how committed the anti no-deal majority in parliament is. But before these anti no-deal MPs pat themselves on the back, they should realise the limits to their action. Parliament is sovereign, but it isn’t sovereign over the EU27; and it is they who’ll decide whether to grant the UK an extension to the Article 50 process.

The failure of any Brexit option to wield a majority in Monday's indicative votes appears to have eased the pressure on No. 10. Ministers had been expecting five hours of meetings today but the first cabinet has been delayed and there is an expectation that the meeting will not run on so long. One minister points out that there is now less pressure on the government to come up with an immediate decision on whether to pursue a softer Brexit, to attempt a no-deal Brexit or to go to the polls if May's deal fails a fourth time. That's not to say today's meeting will be a walk in the park. I understand the pre-reading material includes background for decisions that need to be taken soon regarding no-deal preparations.