Uk politics

"Don't fall for it, Dave!" implores the front cover of this week's The Spectator - together with a leader (precis here) urging him to form a minority government rather than enter any pact with the LibDems. It looks like he will not disappoint us. The Telegraph today discloses that: 'Even if he fails to secure an outright majority, it is understood Mr Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech and Budget passed. Last night, the Conservative leader said that, with three days before polling day, the momentum was now with him.

Oh yes, the Tories are broadcasting more Ready For Government noises this morning.  There's an article in the Telegraph suggesting that David Cameron would choose a minority government ahead of coalition with the Lib Dems.  And the Guardian reports that a Tory government would set out a bulkload of spendings cuts in the first six months of office, when, as a senior Tory puts it, the "excitement of the general election aftermath" will still be hanging in the air. You can understand the Tory thinking here.  Not only will they find it easier to achieve things during the heat and righteous fury of early government, but they will also need to seize something like a mandate for the cuts which have remained off-stage during the election campaign.

A telling passage from Nicholas Watt and Patrick Wintour's campaign report this morning: "Gordon Brown visited 10 London constituencies [yesterday] eventually leaving a pub in Kilburn by a side door after it was besieged by Tory and Lib Dem activists. He is now running a campaign almost exclusively warning of Tory cuts, and claiming that the party's first tax cut would be for Britain's richest millionaires. Brown also described the Tory manifesto as a 'horror show', flagging up their plans on inheritance tax, public services and the deficit, adding: 'I say the Conservative party is not fit for government if it has policies like that.

Gordon Brown knows he is finished. My prediction is that he will not use his constitutional right to hang on if the Tories are the largest party in a hung parliament. OK, the Labour leader might try to stay in No 10 – for a second, maybe a minute, perhaps even an academic quarter, trying desperately to persuade a triumphant Nick Clegg that a Lib-Lab coalition is vital for Britain, and that the Tories are evil and must be resisted. But he will soon give up, throw down the phone in anger, shout at Stewart Wood, ask his colleagues to leave him alone and sit in the office alone for a minute, acknowledging his Greek fate.

So, back to the Labour leadership with Patrick Hennessy's snappy article on the subject for the Sunday Telegraph.  The main sweep of Hennessy's piece is that Brown is likely to step down quickly in the event of defeat; that Harriet Harman could well fill the caretaker leader role; and that certain Dark Forces are moving to install David Miliband as party leader proper.  The colour, though, lies in a couple of juicy snippets which are worth repeating here: "Last week, this newspaper has learnt, Lord Mandelson was overheard telling colleagues of his difficulties running the campaign when other figures – who could only be Miss Harman and her followers – kept insisting that every event must have a proper 'gender balance.