Uk politics

Monday

Katy Balls

Could Boris Johnson command the confidence of the Commons?

Could Boris Johnson command the confidence of the Commons? That's the question being asked in Westminster this week as various 'Stop Boris' factions emerge. The Standard reports that Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill has told Theresa May that she ought to only advise the Queen to appoint Johnson or Jeremy Hunt as her successor if she is confident that they can command a majority in the Commons. With hostility growing over Johnson's Brexit plan – which could lead to no deal – it's BoJo who this appears to be aimed at. Over the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that the Johnson campaign had been warned by the Chief Whip that there was a high likelihood Boris would lose a vote of no confidence within 24 hours of taking the job.

Isabel Hardman

Is the Tory party trying to tear itself apart?

The Conservative party seems to have viewed the demise of the Jeremy Kyle Show as a gap in the market which it needs to fill, with a series of bizarre stories about the behaviour of some of its leading figures over the past few days. Just to top off Mark Field grabbing a female protester at a dinner by the neck and Boris Johnson's relationship troubles, there is also the start of a by-election triggered by a Conservative MP being convicted of expenses fraud. In keeping with its apparently constant need for drama and attention, the party has decided that the best way to deal with Chris Davies being booted out of his seat by his angry constituents, more than 10,000 of whom signed a recall petition following his conviction, is to select, er, Chris Davies to fight the seat.

Brendan O’Neill

The shameful hounding of Carrie Symonds

Who’s really harassing Carrie Symonds? We have no proof that her boyfriend Boris Johnson is. One surreptitiously recorded late-night row does not add up to evidence of an abusive relationship. But we have plenty of proof that leftists are. That’s the great irony of the Boris-tape controversy: Boris-bashers claim merely to be concerned for Ms Symonds’ welfare but in truth many of them seem hell-bent on making her life a misery. Ask yourself what kind of person puts up posters outside a young woman’s flat mocking her lover. That’s what some of Ms Symonds’ neighbours have done. They attached posters to metal railings showing Boris looking ridiculous, alongside the words: ‘We’d rather endure him as our neighbour than our Prime Minister.

Katy Balls

Jeremy Hunt capitalises on Boris Johnson’s troubles

When Jeremy Hunt was announced as the candidate who would join Boris Johnson in the final two for the Tory leadership contest members' vote, there were cheers amongst members of the Johnson camp. The view was that, unlike Gove, Hunt would prove a gentle opponent who Boris would have little bother shrugging off. However, after a weekend of bad headlines for the former mayor of London involving a late night incident with his girlfriend Carrie Symonds, that theory can now be called into question. Johnson refused at the first membership hustings to say why police were called to Symonds's flat in the early hours of Friday. While that refusal went down fine with the members assembled, it has since been criticised by various MPs.

Thursday

James Forsyth

How Boris Johnson intends to approach the next stage of the Tory leadership contest

There was a huge cheer in Boris Johnson’s office when it was announced that Jeremy Hunt had 77 votes, sending him into the final two and eliminating Michael Gove. The Johnson campaign were dreading a run- off against Michael Gove, which would have been far more testing for their candidate. The Johnson campaign are keen to say that there’s no complacency, but there is an understandable confidence that they will beat Hunt. Indeed, their planning for government, which I wrote about in this week’s magazine, is about to be significantly stepped up. Boris Johnson will have no time to waste once he enters Downing Street: there’ll only be 99 days to October 31st. The first hustings on Saturday will give us an idea of how Hunt intends to campaign.

Katy Balls

The Boris campaign get the leadership final they hoped for

There will be sighs of relief in the Boris Johnson camp this evening after Jeremy Hunt won the second spot on the members' ballot. It's no great secret that the Foreign Secretary was Johnson's preferred opponent. Boris allies were concerned that a contest against a candidate like Michael Gove (or, worse still, Rory Stewart) could be bruising and rather hostile. With Gove a very able debater, Johnson would likely have been pressed on the Brexit detail on a nightly basis. Even Jeremy Hunt's allies appear to admit he is an easier candidate to go up against. Ahead of the final vote sources close to the Hunt campaign were warning that a Gove/Boris final would amount to a 'psychodrama'. However, the result has also led to whisperings of tactical voting in certain quarters.

Katy Balls

Sajid Javid could still be headed for Downing Street. 11 Downing Street

Sajid Javid has been knocked out of the Tory leadership contest – coming in fourth place overall. Ahead of the contest, there were high hopes amongst Javid supporters that he could make it all the way to the final two – and potentially No. 10. However, he had a difficult campaign start and the result today will now be seen as an achievement – and a cause of relief – by many of his supporters. There were points when it seemed Javid would struggle to get this far in the contest. The Home Secretary's leadership bid got off to a bad start with a lacklustre video launch from which he struggled to recover momentum. With so many candidates in the race at the beginning, in the first week Javid's bid had little cut through with rivals dominating the conversation.

Steerpike

George Osborne’s change of heart

For a long time George Osborne was more likely to be found taking snipes at his one-time political rival Boris Johnson than supporting his political efforts. In 2016, the former chancellor mocked Johnson by saying that were he to go for the party leadership he would not 'fumble the ball' – a thinly-veiled attack on Johnson's botched leadership campaign in the 2016 contest. Only just like 2019 Johnson, 2019 Osborne is a rather different figure. Now editor of the Evening Standard, Osborne has used the paper's leading article today to endorse Boris Johnson.

James Forsyth

The new PM’s Rory Stewart problem

In this contest, Rory Stewart has established himself as the new champion of the Tory left. He has become a significant figure in the party. The interests of party unity mean that any new prime minister would want to have him inside the tent rather than on the backbenches where he would be the natural leader of any rebellion. But Rory Stewart has already said that he wouldn’t serve in Boris Johnson’s Cabinet. Indeed, he seems unlikely to serve in any new Tory leader’s government. This poses a problem for the incoming PM. Stewart’s absence will make it that much harder to bring the Tory party back together. Stewart is also now the natural leader of any Tory effort to force the government to seek another extension, or to block no deal.

Steerpike

Full list: Tory leadership contenders and MPs backing them

The race for the Tory leadership race is on. More than a dozen candidates put themselves forward but to make it to the final two those seeking to replace Theresa May must persuade fellow Tory MPs to back them. Here are the latest tallies of who is left in the contest – and who is supporting each candidate: Through to the final two: Boris Johnson, 146 MPs publicly backing, 160 votes in the last round The clear favourite with party members and the bookies' favourite to take the Tory crown, former foreign secretary Boris Johnson is seen by many in his party as the candidate most able to take on Nigel Farage's insurgent Brexit party. YouGov found Johnson would be the first choice of 39 per cent of Tory members in a leadership race, far ahead of any other candidate.

Wednesday

Lloyd Evans

John Bercow’s authority has now collapsed

The title ‘Father of the House’ tends to give the bearer a chronic problem with wind. The present holder, Ken Clarke, stood up at PMQs and asked a question of Gibbonian magnitude and complexity. Among the gusts of prose was a useful point about spending. ‘It would be extremely unwise for the outgoing government to make reckless commitments,’ he said. He was ignored. Member after member tried to cadge money from Mrs May before she quits the Downing Street cash-pile. The Conservative MP Marcus Jones wanted a handout for shops in Nuneaton, while Paul Scully made the case for SEN children. Tim Loughton, whose constituency abuts the sea, proposed a whole new arm of government, the Coastal Schools Challenge Fund, to help kids living near a beach to swot harder.

Isabel Hardman

Can politicians learn the toughest lessons of the Grenfell fire?

Jeremy Corbyn chose to focus his questions to the Prime Minister today on the government's response to the Grenfell Tower fire. It was the second anniversary last week of that fire, and campaigners have accused the government of not keeping its promises to the survivors of that disaster. The Labour leader asked about the slow progress in removing the same cladding from other buildings that was on the Grenfell Tower, and then moved on to a recommendation made years before the fire that tower blocks should have sprinklers fitted. That recommendation followed the fire at Lakanal House in 2009 in which six people died. The coroner at that inquest had recommended that sprinklers be fitted to all high-rise buildings.

Isabel Hardman

PMQs showed the damage the leadership debate is causing to the Tory party

Last night's Tory leadership debate was an illustration of where the wider party has ended up: fractious, confused, and without a clear plan for what to do next. Today's Prime Minister's Questions showed the damage that these blue-on-blue attacks are doing to the Conservative party. A number of the candidates have criticised the policies of their own government particularly when it comes to spending. It was inevitable that this was going to get picked up by the Opposition as an attack line. Labour's Paul Williams pointed out that Sajid Javid had pledged to reverse Theresa May's police cuts, while other MPs either made bids for the spending review or warned the Prime Minister not to make commitments which would bind the hands of the next leader.

Robert Peston

Who will face Boris in the final stage of the Tory leadership contest?

This is my scenario for how the last two days of the MPs’ stage of the Tory leadership ballot will play out - which of course by definition means none of it will happen (and the clever money probably bets against me). Most of the 30 votes won by the defeated Brexiteer Dominic Raab will transfer to Johnson - with perhaps just a few going to Sajid Javid, following his loud commitment to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October, no ifs or buts. So it will be touch and go who is knocked out today, Javid or Rory Stewart - because Stewart’s decision to cast himself in the BBC debate last night as the only 'honest' candidate, against four putative con artists, will have reinforced some Tories’ fears that he is too divisive a character.

Katy Balls

Will there be a ‘Stop Rory’ campaign in the third ballot?

With five candidates surviving Tuesday's ballot, the surprise result was Rory Stewart. The wildcard entry won 37 votes – with Sajid Javid behind on 33 votes. It follows that when it comes to who is most likely to be knocked out in this afternoon's ballot, it's the Home Secretary who ought to be the most vulnerable. However, Stewart is not home and dry. Although the DfID Secretary has been building momentum of late, he had a challenging appearance in the BBC debate – admitting after that it wasn't his preferred format. His Cabinet candidate rivals also turned on him at points – with both Michael Gove and Sajid Javid directly challenging him. Multiple messages from the Stewart camp to MPs soon after the second ballot have added to a sense of unease about his campaign.

Tuesday

Ivan Rogers

Ivan Rogers: no deal is now the most likely Brexit outcome

We all know this is a great country. Sadly, it’s one currently very poorly led by a political elite, some masquerading as non-elite, which has great difficulties discerning and telling the truth. I am discouraged by just how badly Brexit has been handled to date, and currently pessimistic that this is going to get any better any time soon. I am worried that the longer the sheer lack of seriousness and honesty, the delusion mongering goes on, the more we imperil our long-term prospects. It is not patriotism to keep on failing to confront realities and to make serious choices from the options which exist, rather than carrying on conjuring up ones which don’t.

Katy Balls

Raab’s departure is good news for Boris

The results of the second ballot are in and it's Dominic Raab who has been knocked out of the race. Boris Johnson cemented his lead going from 114 votes to 126. Brexiteer Raab meanwhile failed to win the 33 votes required – only mustering 30. As for the Cabinet candidates, there is still little difference in support between the top candidates. Rory Stewart managed the largest increase going from 19 votes in the first round to 37: Michal Gove: 41 Jeremy Hunt: 46 Sajid Javid: 33 Boris Johnson: 126 Dominic Raab: 30 Rory Stewart: 37 So, what does the result mean for the overall contest? Johnson continues to look unassailable.

Isabel Hardman

We expect our MPs to be dysfunctional, and then complain when they are

Stella Creasy’s complaint that as an MP she will be unable to take maternity leave is just the latest piece of evidence of Parliament’s dysfunctional nature. The Labour MP has tried - in vain - to get extra funding from the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority so she can appoint someone to cover her work while she is off. The pay and expenses regulator says MPs do not officially take maternity leave, and there is no formal system for covering for them when they are off with their baby. This might be excused as a bizarre anachronism from the times when there were no women in parliament were it not for the fact that Ipsa was only established a decade ago after the expenses scandal.

Katy Balls

What would be a good result for Boris in the second ballot?

What counts as a good result for Boris Johnson in the second ballot? The former foreign secretary has already hit the magic number (105 MPs) that ought to guarantee a candidate a place in the final two – winning 114 votes in the first round. It follows that the pressure is on in some quarters for Johnson to build on this momentum when MPs vote for a second time this afternoon. In terms of stamping his authority, there are Johnson supporters who would like to see him win the support of half of the Parliamentary party – thereby providing him with a strong mandate going forward. The Johnson campaign is keen to play down expectations - with some suggesting they could even lose votes. This is because there is talk of lending votes to rival candidates to get them to the next round.

Monday

James Kirkup

The problem with Theresa May’s desire for a legacy

In less than a month, Theresa May’s premiership will be history. If she is remembered at all, it will mainly be for Brexit. She took on a near-impossible task, made it harder (her misjudged ‘red lines’ from autumn 2016 will always haunt her), and finally failed at it. That had many consequences, not least the neglect of domestic policy. The burning injustices she so memorably listed on the Downing Street step are still blazing away. Poor social mobility, health inequality, racial bias in the justice system, a dysfunctional housing market and poor provision for mental health problems – all remain unresolved.