Uk politics

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

If Scotland had gone independent today, it would be facing sado-austerity

Today is Independence Day, the 24 March, the day Alex Salmond nominated as his ‘independence day’ following a Yes vote. Today’s edition of The National, the newspaper dedicated to the cause of Scottish independence, imagines what might have been. But one rather important story is missing. Yesterday, the Institute for Fiscal Studies updated its forecasts on what an independent Scotland would look like. The result: it’d have the worst deficit in the developed world (see graphic, below). In his official forecasts Alex Salmond envisaged raising up to £7.5 billion of oil revenue. This was before the oil price plunge. Last weeks’ Budget revealed the actual amount: zero. (The graph, below, shows the

Wednesday

Charles Moore

Spectator’s Notes | 23 March 2016

Why have David Cameron and George Osborne overreached? Why are so many in their own party no longer disposed to obey them? Obviously the great issue of Europe has something to do with it. But there is another factor. Victory at the last election, followed by the choice of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, has convinced too many Tories, including Mr Osborne himself, that they will be in power for ten more years at least. So they get careless and cocky. Then they make mistakes. Then they come up against the most admirable fact about parliamentary democracy, which is that you can never guarantee being in power for ten years.

Isabel Hardman

What’s behind Labour’s little list of ‘hostile’ MPs?

Why have Jeremy Corbyn’s allies drawn up a list ranking Labour MPs according to how hostile they are to the leadership? It’s not the first list that categorises MPs: I revealed in the Times recently that the moderates who are plotting to destabilise the Labour leader had drawn up their own list that ranged from the ‘signed-up Corbynistas’, the ‘nervous soft left’, the ‘organisational left’, ‘centrists’ and the moderates. It might be that the Corbynites are simply trying to understand the Labour party a bit better and finally improve their parliamentary operation. This would be a smart move given so many Labour MPs are distinctly wary of their leader, though

James Forsyth

PMQs unifies Tory MPs and weakens Jeremy Corbyn

On Sunday at noon, few would have predicted that Tory MPs would have come out of PMQs cheered and unified. But thanks to The Times’ Sam Coates revealing this morning that the Labour leader’s office have ranked their MPs from core group to hostile, David Cameron won this session hands down and cheered up Tory MPs in the process. Jeremy Corbyn had plenty of material of his own to work with, Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation letter should be a rich seam for Labour. But when Cameron started quoting the rankings at every turn, Corbyn — remarkably, given that his team had had all morning to come up with one — had

Isabel Hardman

Politicians should slow down their responses to terror attacks

David Cameron has been chairing a Cobra meeting this morning to discuss the UK government’s response to yesterday’s terror attacks in Brussels. Inevitably, the issue has become deeply partisan, with Ukip’s Mike Hookem managing to release a statement while the attacks were still taking place, arguing that ‘this horrific act of terrorism shows that Schengen free movement and lax border controls are a threat to our security’. Yesterday, too, Tory MPs attacked John McDonnell for calling into question the fitness of George Osborne for the job of Chancellor while a major terrorist attack was unfolding. What those Tory MPs didn’t acknowledge was that logically if it was wrong for a Shadow Chancellor

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Tories face the new political reality on welfare

Are there going to be more welfare cuts or not? In an afternoon in which the government tried to calm the row following the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith, the key line that stood out was Stephen Crabb telling the Commons that ‘we have no further plans to make welfare savings beyond the very substantial savings legislated for by parliament two weeks ago’. The new Work and Pensions Secretary’s language was qualified by the Treasury, which clarified that this didn’t mean no more cuts in this parliament – just that the government didn’t have any planned. But it has become the big takeaway story from yesterday’s medley of statements. George

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Number 10 tries to neutralise Budget row

David Cameron and George Osborne have got a lot to do to patch up the current Tory wars. But first they need to ensure that those wars don’t get even worse, by making the Budget battles of this week seem less potent. This, it was revealed at morning lobby briefing, will now involve allowing MPs to vote on a Budget that does not set out how the government will save £4bn that the cuts to personal independence payment were supposed to achieve. It will also involve the government not opposing the rebel amendments on the tampon tax and VAT on solar panels and insulation products. This second decision on whipping

Isabel Hardman

How can David Cameron fix the Tory row over the Budget?

Last week’s Budget was supposed to be boring, but is still splashed across the front pages of the newspapers this morning. It was supposed to be crafted so that no Tory MPs could raise a rumpus, yet it has led to the resignation of a Cabinet minister and the opening up of a yawning split in the Tory party. This row between the Tory leadership and those supporting Iain Duncan Smith isn’t officially about Europe, though the referendum has undermined the foundations of the party enough to make this row seriously destabilising for the leadership. David Cameron will use his statement on the latest European Council meeting to reassert the

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Podcast: IDS, Ros Altmann and the return of Tory Wars

Iain Duncan Smith has just given what James Forsyth refers to as a “bombshell interview” which turned into “a missile aimed at George Osborne”. Ros Altmann, the pensions minister, released a statement last night that could be described as a missile aimed at Iain Duncan Smith. What’s next? James Forsyth and I discuss in this podcast.

James Forsyth

Iain Duncan Smith warns government in danger of ‘dividing society’

In one of the most extraordinary political interviews of recent times, Iain Duncan Smith has warned that the government ‘is in danger of drifting in a direction which divides society rather than unites it.’ He repeatedly, and pointedly, argued that in drawing up policy the Tories have to have a care for those who don’t, and will never, vote for them—a remark that everyone in Westminster that will see as being directed against George Osborne. Explaining his resignation, IDS that he was ‘semi-detached’ from decisions taken in government, and that his department was being forced to find savings because of the welfare cap which had been ‘arbitrarily’ lowered by the

Fraser Nelson

Ros Altmann is wrong: the IDS resignation was not about Europe. But it didn’t help

In another extraordinary development the pensions minister, Ros Altmann, has released a statement attacking her former boss Iain Duncan Smith. She reinforces the No10 line that Iain Duncan Smith “championed the very package of reforms to disability benefits he now says is the reason he has resigned” and accuses him of being very hard to work for. Her reaction is odd in that she said nothing about his departure for 24 hours, then at 9pm last night released a series of tweets culminating in her statement saying his attacks on the government can be explained by his position as a Brexiteer. So was she encouraged by No10? Her statement is strikingly

Saturday

Isabel Hardman

Stephen Crabb: how my mother inspired my vision of welfare reform

Earlier, I republished my interview with Stephen Crabb, the new Work and Pensions Secretary. He was, then, Wales Secretary – not all of his (many) thoughts on welfare reform made the cut. So I’ve been through the transcript, and posted more of this comments below: they give a better idea of what the new welfare secretary is like. At the time, benefits had been cut in the post-election Budget. Crabb was a bit nervous, saying-: ‘You have always got to handle the issue of welfare with care because you are dealing with support mechanisms for Britain’s most vulnerable people. That’s what welfare is. You’ve got to take care of the issue. But we should take

James Forsyth

George Osborne should have gone to the Foreign Office after the election

Imagine how different politics would be now if George Osborne had moved to the Foreign Office after the election. He would have left the Treasury with his economic and political strategy vindicated by the election result and wouldn’t be involved in this deeply damaging row with Iain Duncan Smith. For Osborne to have a former leader, and one of the most respected figures among the party activists, attacking his whole approach to deficit reduction and his conception of fairness is politically disastrous, to put it mildly. The problem for Osborne is that with no fiscal wriggle room and his opponents on the Tory benches determined to cause him trouble at every

Fraser Nelson

David Cameron suspends disability benefit reform, after IDS resignation

Well, that was quick. In his letter responding to Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation, the Prime Minister has this to say:- “We collectively agreed – you, No10 and the Treasury – proposals which you and your Department then announced a week ago. Today, we agreed not to proceed with the policies in their current form and instead to work together to get these policies right over the coming months.” It was the disability benefit cuts that triggered the IDS resignation (or, rather, their being used in the Budget to help finance cuts to the higher rate of tax). The £1.3 billion cut was stated as a fact in the Budget, and the money banked. Then it

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Iain Duncan Smith resigns in protest at the Budget

In the last few minutes, Iain Duncan Smith has released a letter of resignation from his post as Work & Pensions Secretary. The proximate cause is the Budget cuts to disability benefits. He knew about them, but had wanted a consultation paper to be published so the government could make the argument carefully, over many weeks, given that this is a hugely controversial topic. Instead, George Osborne presented the disability cuts as a £1.3 billion fait accompli in the Budget and these cuts to finance tax cuts for higher-rate earners and lowering capital gains tax. IDS said in his letter to David Cameron that this is ‘not defensible’. It was the juxtaposition, rather than the cuts on their own, that

Alex Massie

George Osborne is the most over-rated politician in Britain

Many moons ago, Charles J Haughey, Taoiseach of the 26 free counties, bestowed a great compliment upon an up-and-coming young Fianna Fail politician. Bertie Ahern, Haughey observed, was the coming force: “He’s the man. He’s the best, the most skilful, the most devious, and the most cunning of them all.” Now, granted, that kind of praise was akin to Jimmy Savile suggesting you have a great future in children’s entertainment but the point, nonetheless, was made. Bertie Ahern was a cute hoor who could cute and hoor with the best of them. I often think of Haughey’s praise for Ahern at this time of year. Because this is, invariably, the time of year when

Fraser Nelson

Save council-run schools! It’s time for local authorities to open free schools

In part of his Budget manspreading this week, George Osborne stole Nicky Morgan’s announcement that councils will be forced to relinquish control of all schools, so every single one is an Academy. As Philip Collins says in the Times today, this doesn’t mean they’ll all get better – he rather scorns the idea. But his old boss, Tony Blair, had precisely the same idea: to (in effect) privatise every single state school, so each one is independent of the council and has a direct financial relationship with Whitehall, cutting out local authorities entirely. Blair was vetoed by Brown and had to settle for a few hundred Academies. But in this,

James Forsyth

New YouGov poll puts Labour ahead

When an ICM phone poll this week had Labour level with the Tories for the first time since Jeremy Corbyn became leader, even the pollster cast doubt on the finding. But today, YouGov has Labour ahead by a point—34% to 33%. YouGov’s Anthony Wells says that this suggests ‘something is genuinely afoot’. Now, as the election reminded us polls are not all seeing. It is also doubtful what the value of a poll is this far out from a general election: Ed Miliband was regularly ahead by large margins during the last parliament and still went on to lose the election. One also suspects that if Labour was being covered

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

How does George Osborne get away with missing his targets?

How does George Osborne get away with it? The Chancellor was asked this on the Today programme this morning, with John Humphrys needling him on the economic targets on debt and deficit that he set himself and asking whether if he could miss two out of three of those targets and potentially be on course to miss a third, ‘what’s a bloke got to do in your job to get the sack?’ Osborne repeatedly argued that there was more to do, saying ‘by our own measurements and the tests we have set ourselves.. we have got more to do’. The picture he painted was of the government making progress towards

Isabel Hardman

Budget 2016: Osborne gets the front pages he wanted

Normally, a set of newspaper splashes featuring a Chancellor’s most controversial Budget policy would be judged a bad thing. But today’s newspaper front pages are, by and large, just what George Osborne wanted. The sugar tax is just too irresistible to headline writers – and too controversial a policy not to grab attention and provoke endless debate. It is also much better a policy to grab attention and provoke endless debate than the awkward economic figures that the newspapers could have splashed on. Even front pages like the one published this morning by the Sun that criticise the sugar tax are better than ones criticising a £55bn black hole in the public