Nick clegg

In yesterday’s speech to commemorate 12 months of the coalition, Nick Clegg promised a stronger liberal identity in the future. His party was ‘not left, ‘not right’ but ‘liberal’ and would judge other parties by their commitment to liberalism. Above all, and despite professed disavowal of tribal politics, he claimed that the Lib-Dems were ‘more committed at heart to fairness than the Conservatives’. Critics of the coalition on the Tory backbenches are often dismissed as the Tory Right, a term intended to paint them as disgruntled reactionaries who can’t reconcile themselves to partnership with the Lib-Dems.

When David Laws resigned from government last year, his return was thought to be only a matter of time. Today, it is looking considerably more indefinite. Not only has Cameron been talking down the prospect of a reshuffle any time soon, but the Evening Standard is reporting that Laws has been found guilty of breaching six — six! — Commons rules related to his expense claims. No word, yet, on the details, or whether there will be any formal punishment for the former Chief Sec. But it doesn't look good for him, nor for his ministerial prospects in the short-term. Sky's Sophy Ridge tweets that certain Lib Dems are "still keen" to transfer Laws back to government "within weeks". Perhaps so — but I'd be surprised were they to pull it off.

The Prime Minister, it seems, is now finally accepting what everyone else has been saying for a long time: that the NHS reforms were dangerous and would hurt the government. If Nick Clegg forced a re-think — even one that is supported by many Tories — then he may, in the end, play a greater part in delivering the next election for Cameron's party than many triumphalist right-wingers now realise. For CameronCare was badly-timed, poorly-delivered and strikes at the heart of the PM's message that the Conservative Party can be trusted. Large-scale reforms need time. Time for people to accept a problem. Time for people to accept the solution.

After every election, the political stock exchange goes into a frenzy trying to work out who is a buy and who is a sell. Thirty-six hours after the polls closed, it is a little clearer who the winners and losers of this election season have been. Here are our selections: Winners Alex Salmond, the biggest winner of Thursday night. Salmond has achieved what the Scottish electoral system was meant to prevent, an overall SNP majority in the Scottish parliament. Salmond now has the votes he needs for a referendum on independence.

While the Lib Dems lost control of Nick Clegg's city of Sheffield to Labour, losing 9 councillors, they won every seat up for election Chris Huhne's constituency of Eastleigh. They even took Labour's only council seat in the borough. It is worth remembering that the Lib Dems are waging very different types of battle in these two areas: against Labour in Sheffield and mainly the Tories in Eastleigh. Of all the Cabinet members, Huhne ran probably the most anti-Tory campaign in 2010, and many predicted a strong backlash against the Lib Dems in Eastleigh for going into coalition with them, perhaps with Labour supporters refusing to back them tactically over the Tories. On today's evidence, at least, this does not seem to be the case.

Tonight’s ICM poll is even worse for the Yes campaign than last night’s ComRes poll. The poll, in tomorrow’s Guardian, has Yes heading for defeat by a margin of more than two-to-one and in every single region of the country. The turnout adjusted numbers are No 68, Yes 32. If these last two polls are accurate, and it is difficult to estimate what the turnout will be tomorrow, it will be a monumental humiliation for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. Defeat on this scale would take Lib Dem nervousness about what the coalition is doing to the party’s brand to a whole new level. Indeed, its effect would be so destabilising that it would be hard to predict how this punch-drunk party would react.

Up until a few months ago, David Cameron and Nick Clegg tried to avoid doing big set piece broadcast interviews on the same day. This was driven by a desire to both maximise the coalition’s dominance of the media agenda and to avoid having to give a running commentary on what the other had said. But this rule has gone out of the window as the AV referendum has got rougher and rougher. So, following on from their both doing separate interviews on Andrew Marr on Sunday, they both were on the Today Programme this morning. Clegg even told Justin Webb to ask Cameron about the split between the two of them on internships when he was on in forty minutes time.   Clegg isn’t, unlike Cable and Huhne, openly attacking the Tories. But he is doing so implicitly.

Almost a year ago, David Cameron and Nick Clegg staged their love-in at the Downing Street rose garden. As I say in the News of the World (£) today, this era is now at a close. When they come back from the 5 May elections, Clegg and Cameron have agreed that they cannot go on as before. An agreement has been struck for an amicable separation. Not divorce — the coalition will keep going. But Cameron and Clegg will put clear blue (and yellow) water between them and drop the pretence that they agree on everything. The coalition is about to enter its Phase Two.   Clegg’s analysis is that Phase One was, perhaps, too successful. His over-riding mission was to prove to a sceptical Britain that coalition governments can work and don’t lead to sclerosis.