Labour party

As well as keeping the tax avoidance row going for as long as possible (something that is worrying Tories, who think their party needs to find a way of moving the conversation on from a toxic issue as quickly as possible), Ed Miliband also unveiled a potential new campaign message at his speech today. He talked about ‘a better plan for working people, a better plan for Britain’. The 79-page document that launched alongside it was entitled ‘Better Plan for Britain’s Prosperity’.

Last week was Labour’s best of the campaign so far and the Tories’ worst. The row over tax avoidance and Lord Fink’s comments reinforced the damaging perception that the Tories are the party of the rich. It also raised Labour morale, frontbenchers who used to be pessimistic about the party’s electoral prospects are now bullish. But there is a danger that this tactical victory could turn into a strategic defeat. For Miliband by denouncing tax avoidance—which is legal—and setting himself up as a moral arbiter on the issue, has made his tax affairs and those of his shadow Cabinet, MPs and donors a legitimate subject of public interest. They no longer just have to be legal and fully declared, they also have to pass the higher Miliband bar.

Who ends up governing Britain after the election may well be determined by what happens in the Scottish seats. If the SNP take a slew of seats from Labour, it becomes far more likely that the Tories will be the largest party nationally. Add to that the fact that Cameron is the incumbent Prime Minister and he would, in these circumstances, probably be able to put together a deal that sees him carry on as Prime Minister. Labour is acutely aware of this and is busy warning Scots ‘Vote SNP, Get Tory.’ But in this anti-politics era, these squeeze messages don’t work as well as they used to—as the Tories are finding out with their ‘Vote Ukip, Get Miliband’ warnings.

Ed Miliband’s party has ended up having a reasonably good week, even though it’s been a pretty tough battle. Today’s front pages have not been good at all, something the party leader’s supporters are obviously disappointed by, but given the story about a comparison between the row about Lord Fink’s tax affairs and the hacking of Milly Dowler’s phone was made by an aide, not Miliband, and then reported in a way that was initially misinterpreted, the focus of the row is not Miliband himself. The line about Miliband's own tax affairs was inevitable, too. But it depends whether anyone can find anything to continue the story.

In some respects David Cameron has been a lucky politician. Lucky that his predecessors had failed so completely that his initial brand of so-called modernisation seemed a punt worth taking. Lucky that he faced Gordon Brown, not Tony Blair. Lucky that he could pivot from 'sharing the proceeds of growth' to 'we're all in it together' without too many people noticing (or caring too much). Lucky, above all, that he now faces Ed Miliband. Because however you dress it up, this has not been a happy government. In economic terms - the defining issue of the age - his party has missed many of its most important targets. Functionally-speaking, George Osborne's record in office has followed Alistair Darling's 2010 plans more than it resembles Osborne's own projections from five years ago.