Iran

Saturday

Freddy Gray

Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through the coming Iran crisis

From our UK edition

That gathering drumbeat you hear could be the sound of World War III, or it could be 10,000 journalists still Googling facts about Iran following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. The internet is a bluffer’s paradise, but it also means that everybody— not just the hacks — now feels a strong impulse to talk knowledgeably about the Middle East when news happens. You have to know your Shiite, as they say, your IRGC from your Kataib Hizbollah. Don’t muddle Khamenei with Khomeini. But more importantly don’t be afraid! The Spectator is here with some handy phrases to get you through any difficult Twitter spat or pub chat. 1) Say ‘Iran’s proxies in the region’ a lot The word ‘proxies’ is bluffer gold-dust so sprinkle liberally.

Friday

Dominic Green

China and Russia win from America’s wars

I woke up late on Friday, so missed the livestreamed assassination of Franz Ferdinand and the rolling barrage of tweet-commentary about the super-judicial martyrdom of Hassan Thingy and the start of World War Three. It was all over by lunchtime, bar the shooting, because there could only be one winner. Or was that two?The first winner, as always when it comes to American foreign policy, is Xi’s China. Anything that ties the United States into the open-ended shambles of the Middle East distracts the energies of the United States, and the eyes of America’s allies and clients, from China’s surreptitious campaigns to replace the United States as global patron. In war as in online shopping, China emerges as hegemon not despite American efforts, but because of them.

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Daniel McCarthy

No, killing Soleimani doesn’t mean war

Everybody knows Donald Trump is going to start a war. His critics have been saying so since his first year in office — remember the war with North Korea they predicted right after Trump tweeted about unleashing ‘fire and fury’ on the Little Rocket Man? That war didn’t happen. Nor did an insurgency break out when President Trump moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, an act that the Trump haters were certain would incite waves of violence and unquenchable turmoil. But maybe the third time’s the charm — maybe the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Quds Force division of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, in a US airstrike in Iraq will finally give the president’s detractors the war they’ve been anticipating.

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Jacob Heilbrunn

Taking out Soleimani is like stepping on a landmine to cure a headache

Talleyrand once commented that Napoleon’s execution of the Duke of Enghien in 1804 was worse than a crime. It was a mistake. Something similar could be said about President Trump’s liquidation of Maj. Gen Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. No one will miss the villainous Soleimani, but killing him was the equivalent of stepping on a landmine to cure a headache. What on earth could Trump have been thinking — if he was thinking at all? Trump has in effect ceded his foreign policy to the hawks. So much for Trump the restrainer. Hello, Donald Trump neocon. Trump has launched America into the path of a war with Iran that it can win but only at a cost that is disproportionate to the terrible cost it will pay.

Robert Peston

How will Boris Johnson respond to Qassem Soleimani’s killing?

From our UK edition

President Trump’s decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani accelerates perhaps the most important post-Brexit decision faced by Boris Johnson: whether to stand with the US or the EU at moments of potentially acute global crisis. What happens next will largely be conditioned by how Iran responds and retaliates. But all Western governments are examining their options. In particular, France’s president Macron will be working hard to forge a coordinated EU and European response, not least because through the G7 over the summer he endeavoured to engineer a dialogue between president Trump and Iran. Those close to Macron say he admires Johnson. But there are members of the government who harbour the traditional British mistrust of a strong French president.

John R. Bradley

The Soleimani assassination is Donald Trump’s biggest gamble yet

From our UK edition

Ever since Donald Trump was elected president on a non-military interventionist platform, sceptics have questioned his commitment to withdrawing troops from the Middle Eastern quagmire and stopping the endless wars he claims to despise. Now he has authorised the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the powerful Iranian Quds Force, we can be in absolutely no doubt on whether he stands: he’s no different to the other US presidents. It’s a massive strategic gamble. Soleimani was the second most powerful figure in Iran, answering only to the Ayatollah himself. For more than a decade he has been the architect of Iran’s regional military strategy. He helped Iraq and Syria defeat Isis. Among the Iranian masses, he was a hero like no other.

Tuesday

Jacob Heilbrunn

What could go right for Trump in 2020?

It’s starting to dawn on Democrats that Donald J. Trump might stand on the steps of the Capitol in January 2021 to swear his oath of office for the second time. A new Gallup poll indicates that he and Barack Obama are tied as the most popular men in America. So what are the four things that might help further smooth Trump’s oath to reelection? First, despite the preposterous pearl clutching of Freddy Gray on this website, Trump’s hardline against Iran could pay off. He’s steadily raising the military and economic pressure on Tehran. Contrary to all the naysayers, Trump could end up showing that Iran, not America, is the paper tiger.

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baghdad iraq foreign policy
Freddy Gray

Trump’s foreign policy isn’t working

An end to endless wars? Get real. America’s foreign policy since the end of the Cold War is a never-ceasing tragedy. One front improves, another worsens. On Sunday, it emerged that the Taliban council had agreed a ceasefire in Afghanistan, a development that could at last end America’s longest war, its 18-year military engagement in the graveyard of empires. Maybe President Donald Trump really could make good on his promise to end America’s hopeless and destructive foreign entanglements. At the same time, however, Iraq has fallen into greater chaos again — because America can’t stop meddling. George W. Bush’s other great disaster continues. The failure cycle whirs.

Thursday

John R. Bradley

The alliance between America and Saudi Arabia is over

From our UK edition

The oil-for-security alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia, forged in 1945 when Franklin D. Roosevelt met King Abdul Aziz aboard a US Navy destroyer, is now over. Just look at the American reaction to the attack by Iran on Saudi oil facilities. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo duly called it an ‘act of war’; the Wall Street Journal told us the attack was ‘the big one’. But then nothing: President Donald Trump merely shrugged and declared the US energy independent. ‘We don’t need Middle Eastern Oil & Gas,’ he said. Industry experts warned that such an assessment was premature; but oil prices stabilised and the sound of war drums faded. We are witnessing the beginning of a new geopolitics in the Middle East.

Thursday

Gil Barndollar

The negotiator or Bolton Lite? Reading Robert C. O’Brien

President Trump proudly unveiled a new national security adviser on Wednesday who looks the part: Robert C. O’Brien, the State Department’s special presidential envoy for hostage affairs. A tanned Californian, with a successful law career based in Los Angeles, O’Brien has spent time in mid-level State Department roles when not making his living in international arbitration. He is a comparatively unknown figure and so the question hangs in the air: is Trump’s new NSA a sober diplomat, 'Bolton Lite', or something else? O’Brien was not an immediate public contender for the job. But DC insider speculation proved fruitless. Purported favorites like belligerent ambassador Ric Grenell, realist Ret. Col.

Robert C. O’Brien

Wednesday

Jacob Heilbrunn

Robert C. O’Brien, Trump’s good soldier

With the appointment of Robert C. O’Brien to serve as national security adviser, Donald Trump will once more disappoint his America First backers. They were hoping that Ret. Col. Douglas Macgregor would get the nod. Instead, Trump has gone with a Republican establishment figure who views China as the biggest threat to American national security. As always, Trump was bullish on his new hire: 'I have worked long & hard with Robert. He will do a great job!' As Trump national security adviser number 4, O’Brien is expected to bring some calm to the roiling waters of the NSC, where its heads have repeatedly capsized, whether it's Michael Flynn, H.R. McMaster, or John Bolton.

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Daniel DePetris

Emmanuel Macron could be the big loser from the Saudi drone attack

From our UK edition

Saudis woke up last Saturday to find the crown jewel of their oil industry in smoke. The attack on the al-Abqaiq oil processing facility, allegedly conducted by cruise missiles and launched from a staging area inside Iran, resulted in the sharpest single-day increase in crude prices since the 1991 Gulf War. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil installation, however, wasn’t the only thing that went up in smoke last weekend. The volley of missiles screeching into Saudi airspace may have also ruined French president Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to deescalate tensions in the Persian Gulf and save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal from a slow and agonising death.

Thursday

The Spectator

Letters: There is more to village life than shutters, benches and paint

From our UK edition

Shambles at sea Sir: On 19 July Iranian Republican Guard forces captured the UK flagged tanker Stena Impero, as described by former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt in her Spectator Diary (3 August). It was a national humiliation and it needn’t have happened. As was made clear at the House of Commons Defence Committee hearing on 9 September, warnings were being given about possible Iranian actions as early as mid-June. The UK naval presence in the area comprised only one frigate, HMS Montrose, and more ships were needed to protect UK shipping. The HCDC was surprised to discover from Mordaunt that she had been trying to stimulate a response, but had her requests for a Cobra meeting refused on at least five occasions.

Sunday

D Guppy

What Britain can learn from Iran about sovereignty

From our UK edition

‘Great Minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.’ (Eleanor Roosevelt) The essay which follows is about ideas, not people, for people – now more than ever – no matter what office they may hold, have far less agency than they imagine. It is ideas that change the world. Accordingly, the discussion below is not meant to constitute advice to any particular individual and should not be construed as such. The fact that a crisis in our diplomatic relations with Iran should have synchronised with a school chum’s appointment as Prime Minister is happenstance.

Thursday

James Adams

America’s cyberspace challenge

America is at war in cyberspace and is losing badly. The US has some of the world’s most advanced cyber weapons, but no political will or a coherent national strategy. As a result, America’s enemies see a fatal weakness, and are exploiting it every day. In July, the Senate Intelligence Committee reported that Russia hacked into the electoral systems of all 50 US states. The committee did not find that the Russians directly interfered with the voting, but is clear that they have developed that capability. 'While the Committee does not know with confidence what Moscow’s intentions were, Russia may have been probing vulnerabilities in voting systems to exploit later,’ the report said.

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Peter Jones

Persia’s lessons for the PM

From our UK edition

Stanley Johnson suggests his son, the PM, will easily deal with Iran because he is well acquainted with Persian history and knows all about kings such as Darius and Xerxes. But talking ancient history with Ayatollahs could have its problems. Here, for example, is what Herodotus (d. c. 425 bc) had to say about Darius. Distantly related to the royal family, he served loyally under King Cambyses, at whose death in 522 bc a usurper took power. Darius plotted with six others to dethrone him, suggesting they should lie their way into the palace and kill him: ‘Where a lie must be told, tell it. Those who lie and those who tell the truth all have a similar objective, to gain advantage: same end, different means.

Penny Mordaunt

Diary – 1 August 2019

From our UK edition

I begin the week in Bamako, Mali, with a crackly telephone call to Commodore Dean Bassett, UK Maritime Component Commander in the Gulf. He informs me that HMS Montrose and the Maritime Trade Operation has seen 30 ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz. These ships had been given 24 hours’ notice for their transit. Another, Stena Impero, had not made it through. Montrose was given only 60 minutes notice for her transit. Despite increasing to flank speed, she was 20 minutes too late and steamed into the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The anger and disappointment is evident in the Commodore’s voice as he professionally delivers his report. I thank him and his team for their efforts.

Thursday

The Spectator

Portrait of the week | 25 July 2019

From our UK edition

Home Boris Johnson became Prime Minister after being elected the leader of the Conservative party by its members, with 92,153 votes to Jeremy Hunt’s 46,656 and a turnout of 87.4 per cent. Philip Hammond got his resignation as chancellor of the exchequer in before he could be sacked, as did David Gauke as justice secretary and Sir Alan Duncan as a Foreign Office minister. Plots were afoot to undermine Mr Johnson’s promise to leave the European Union by 31 October, with or without an agreement. David Frost, a former chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association, was appointed to the job of liaising with the EU over Brexit, relinquished by the civil servant Oliver Robbins.

Andrew Bacevich

Diplomacy by deference

From our UK edition

Iran’s seizure of a British-owned oil tanker transiting the Persian Gulf has let loose a fresh round of media war chatter. Yet should another Persian Gulf War actually occur, who would benefit? Not America, that’s for sure. The central theme of present-day US policy regarding Iran is deference. Nominally, US policy is made in Washington. Substantively, it is framed in Riyadh and Jerusalem, with the interests of the United States figuring only minimally in determining the result. I am not suggesting that President Donald Trump supinely complies with secret marching orders from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Dominic Raab has to handle a stand-off with Iran and his own civil servants

From our UK edition

It's not an easy time to become Foreign Secretary, as Dominic Raab is about to find out. There is, of course, the crisis in relations with Iran, which threatens to escalate further in the coming days. Raab is taking over shortly after Jeremy Hunt announced a European-led mission to protect shipping in the Gulf, which may not necessarily accord with Boris Johnson's own foreign policy instincts. One of the reasons that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was able to seize the British-flagged tanker was that Britain had turned down the US's suggestion of co-operation to protect boats, for fear of appearing too cosy with Donald Trump. Johnson has no such qualms about working with the US President, something Freddy highlighted in his recent Spectator cover piece.