Germany

All is not well in the transatlantic relationship. This might come as a surprise given that the United States and Europe have been remarkably unified on Europe’s most urgent security crisis in the post-Cold War era. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to inject division into the pro-Ukraine coalition by throttling gas supplies to Europe, the West is sticking to its guns, maintaining sanctions on Moscow until either the war ends or Russian troops are forced to withdraw. This consensus, however, has masked disputes between Washington and its European allies that are becoming more difficult to manage.

The world's eyes have been on America this week, thanks to the midterms. Cockburn, however has been gazing across the Atlantic with amusement. A new dance class is being offered in Germany called "Let’s Move — Tanzt Euch Warm," or "dance yourselves warm," to combat rising energy costs as the temperature falls. https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1590588816716242944 Watching the footage of the chilly krauts cha-cha-cha-ing, Cockburn can’t help but recall former president Donald Trump’s speech to the United Nations back in 2018, where he warned that "Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy." At the time, the German delegation laughed and shook their heads at what they considered yet another absurd broadside from the American president. https://twitter.

Last Friday, President Biden signed a spending bill that will keep the government’s lights on until December 16, when lawmakers will have to cobble together a funding resolution to avert a shutdown. Tucked into that law was another tranche of security and economic assistance to Ukraine, to the tune of $12.3 billion. The signing came two days after the Defense Department announced the release of an additional $1.1 billion military package for Kyiv, which will include 18 more HIMARS systems, 150 armored vehicles, and ammunition of various calibers. The Biden administration has provided the Ukrainians with over $16 billion in security assistance since Russia’s invasion in February. Washington’s hands have been cramping up from writing so many checks.

There was a time in the not-so-distant past when Europe and Russia had a mutually beneficial relationship with each other — at least in the energy field. Europe, a major oil consumer, received reliable supplies of crude and natural gas from Moscow, while the Russians received tens of billions of dollars in return. The European Union imported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia last year, equivalent to about 45 percent of its total gas imports. There was an ingrained assumption in European capitals that, even if relations with the Russians were thorny, fossil fuels would continue to head west. War, however, can change things in a flash. European and Russian officials now talk past each other, and sometimes they leave the room when the other is speaking.

A brutal artillery battle: that’s what the latest phase of Russia’s war on Ukraine has become. Vladimir Putin failed in his original goal of seizing the entire country swiftly, beginning with the capital of Kyiv, and installing a puppet government. When Ukrainian resistance prevented that, Putin shifted to a smaller, more achievable objective: establishing complete control over two eastern provinces, Luhansk and Donetsk, which border Russia and are jointly known as the Donbas region. That’s where the war is being fought now, with an uncertain outcome. Victory will depend on who wins the artillery battle. Russia has more blunt firepower; Ukraine has more precise, longer-range weapons — or at least it will have them when more NATO supplies reach the frontlines.