Europe

At the start of the year, some of the air seemed to have gone out of the Ukip balloon. The party’s warnings about the scale of Romanian and Bulgarian immigration to Britain hadn’t been borne out by events. But the debates with Nick Clegg enabled Nigel Farage to get his momentum back. In those debates, Clegg was too passive in the first one and then over-compensated in the second with the result that he ended up losing both of them. Clegg’s decision to not engage with Farage in the first debate meant that he missed his best chance to get under the Ukip leader’s skin.

Nigel Farage’s strategy for winning the European Elections is based around winning over blue collar workers who normally vote Labour. Ukip believe that they can use immigration as a battering ram to break through Labour’s defences in the north. One of the party’s campaign billboards unveiled last night simply says, ’26 million people in Europe are looking for work. And whose jobs are they after’. (I suspect that Ukip will welcome the controversy these posters are attracting because it will help amplify their message) https://twitter.com/Adrian_Hilton/statuses/458163441531097088 Ukip’s argument is that it is the only party that can actually do something about immigration.

All three main parties have now hired foreign advisers to help run their general election campaigns. These foreign advisers have one thing in common: they’re all from the English speaking world. Despite our membership of the European Union, when it comes to winning elections, all our political parties think there is more to learn from other English speaking countries than France or Italy. Indeed, it is hard to imagine any of them putting a European in charge of their campaign. But they are all delighted to have their American, Australian and South African campaign hands. Partly, this is a language thing. But, I think, it also goes deeper than that.

David Cameron’s plan to renegotiate Britain’s membership of the European Union has long been regarded as a major obstacle to a second Tory-Lib Dem coalition. But, as I report in the Mail on Sunday, this is no longer the case. The Lib Dem logic is essentially that any deal that other European leaders are prepared to offer Cameron is one that they can accept as well. One Clegg confidant tells me that when it comes to the renegotiation, ‘It is not us David Cameron is going to have a problem with but the Tories.’ Indeed, there are parts of the renegotiation that the Liberal Democrats are already on board with. Clegg is fully supportive of the tightening up of the benefit rules for EU migrants that Employment Minister Esther McVey will announce on Wednesday.

Why did Nick Clegg bother debating Nigel Farage? The Ukip leader bagged two decisive victories in the battles. But that doesn't mean the Lib Dem leader has failed to set out what he wanted to do. Clegg needed these debates to reach out to his base, to motivate them to go out campaigning and vote in May. He didn't need to 'win' in order to do that: he just needed to put the case for EU membership loudly and proudly. He had to remind some of his party's supporters why they joined the Liberal Democrats and he needs to motivate pro-Europeans from other parties to lend their vote to the Lib Dems too in order to prevent a wipeout. During the debate on Wednesday the Lib Dems sent a text message to all their members asking for £5 if Nigel Farage was making them angry.

What a week! I was thrilled to have a chance to confront Nick Clegg but my excitement was tempered with disappointment that neither Cameron nor Miliband agreed to take part — although both were invited. I’d love to have challenged Miliband about the effects of uncontrolled immigration: wage compression, for instance, and the erosion of job opportunities within working-class communities. Why did he chicken out? My bet is he knows these facts are unanswerable. Cameron is, by all accounts, having kittens about Ukip but I think I can set his mind at rest. Our current wave of support seems to be thanks to working-class former Labour voters, which makes perfect sense.

Has last night’s debate affected Nigel Farage’s chances of being involved in the general election TV debates? Although the broadcasters and political parties have yet to agree any dates or formats, the precedent has been set and the public will be expecting them. With weasel words from No.10 and a bullish attitude from some broadcasters, there’s a long way to go before an agreement is made. The public already have a clear idea of what they expect. According to the last YouGov polling on the subject, nearly half believe there should be a four-way debate between Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage: [datawrapper chart="http://charts.spectator.co.uk/chart/noqHV/"] It’ll be interesting to see whether the public have changed their minds following Nick vs.

Tonight is the first round of the Clegg/Farage debate on Britain's EU membership. It is perfectly possible that both of the leaders could benefit from it. They could emerge as champions of their causes and gain plaudits for having the courage to debate the issue. But I suspect that this won't happen. They both believe too passionately in their positions on Europe to play it safe, thought they might be cautious tonight knowing that there's another debate coming in a week's time. One other thing that has raised the stakes is the barrage against Farage. If Farage has a poor night tonight, there'll be a lot of talk about how Ukip has lost the momentum that it had at the end of last year. My instinct is that the format slightly favours Clegg.

The Tories have been hoping that their pledge for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU would split Labour – it was the rationale behind John Baron's regular pushes for legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, which David Cameron eventually satisfied as far as he could with the Wharton Bill. But so far the only dissenting voices on Ed Miliband's pledge today for an 'unlikely' referendum have been the usual suspects on the backbenches such as Graham Stringer and John Mann. That's hardly a 'furious backlash' and more expected and manageable rage – at present, anyway. It will be interesting to see whether there are many more senior figures who break cover or at least brief off the record about the Labour stance on this issue.

Last week, I spoke alongside Nigel Farage in a debate about immigration organised by the Evening Standard. It was good fun, as you’d expect, with David Lammy, Tessa Jowell and Simon Walker of the IoD on the other side, and David Goodhart alongside me and Mr Farage. You’d be startled, mind you, at the way Nigel Farage gets mobbed by an audience, and in a good way. I did get the chance to get to talk briefly to him myself and ask the question I’d wanted to put to him for ages: why it is that he keeps on about EU migration, when it’s non-EU migration that’s the greater problem. He was unfazed, of course, and said, look, when we meet again in the future to talk about all this, it’ll be EU immigration that’ll be the problem.