Economy

David Davis offers his counsel in good faith

From his roost high on the backbenches, David Davis commands a luminescent eminence that he would not have had if he were a frontbencher. And as the current guardian of traditional right-wing Toryism, his words are clear against the often muddy context of coalition. Talking to the Mail's Andrew Pierce and Amanda Platell, he offers George Osborne and David Cameron some sagacious advice. He joins the chorus, now stalked by Ed Miliband, which urges the government to articulate its growth and recovery rhetoric. ‘We cannot be defined by a purely cuts agenda. If the only message the public takes away from the events of the next few months is one of retrenchment and loss of services, politically at least, we will have failed.

Forcing an apology

Admittedly, this is but an item of marginalia in the notebook of British politics – but I'd appreciate CoffeeHousers' views on it nonetheless. I'm talking about the Tories' efforts to squeeze an apology out of Labour for the state of the public finances. This is something that they've been trying to do since the election, but the strategy has been reheated in the aftermath of Ed Miliband's election. As Sayeeda Warsi put it on Saturday, "what I noticed in his acceptance speech was that there was … no apology for the role that he had played in the current economic mess." Other Tory folk have called for that to be put right. I'm inclined to take a dim view of this.

The speech that David Miliband would have given on Saturday?

Caveats about positioning after the event, of course, but Andrew Pierce's account of the speech that David Miliband would have given on Saturday is still worth noting down: "You could have heard a pin drop in the conference hall when the new Labour leader delivered his acceptance speech. Far from being triumphalist, he issued a stark and unwelcome warning that shocked the Party: it had to change, or lose the next election. Only minutes after the applause had died down on Gordon Brown’s valedictory address, his successor savaged Brown’s record as Chancellor and Prime Minister. He mocked the claim that Labour had ended the cycle of boom and bust.

Three quarters of voters side with Cable

Politics Home has published an important poll, showing the staggering level of support for Vince Cable’s conference speech. The government will be pleased that its political attack on the financial services industry’s continued excess at time of austerity is cutting through; on the other hand, this could be seen as support for Cable’s emotive rhetoric. Worse still, the poll suggests that traditional Tory voters are the only group for whom Nick Clegg is more impressive than Cable. The business secretary has to be kept in government – the coalition can't afford to have a charismatic wreaking havoc from the backbenches. Support for Vince Cable conference speech Who are the impressive Liberal Democrat politicians?

Ed Balls steps up his bid for the shadow chancellorship

With the result but a day away, there's plenty of radio chatter about the Labour leadership election this morning. The Guardian reports that MiliD will work for MiliE if he loses. The FT observes Harriet Harman shifting towards the Eds' position on the deficit, even if she is remaining neutral in the contest itself. A Populus poll for the Times (£) suggests that Gordon Brown is currently more popular among Labour supporters than either of the Milibands (which is deeply amusing). And Political Betting is calling it for Ed Miliband. But perhaps the most noteworthy contributions come courtesy of Ed Balls, compiled and skilfully analysed by Sunder Katwala over at Next Left.

WEB EXCLUSIVE: Risky Business

The Spectator and KPMG hosted a conference recently that explored possible investment opportunities in today’s fragile geo-political climate. Panellists included Sir Malcolm Rifkind, John Ruffer, Lord Guthrie, Frank Gardner and Rory Stewart. CoffeeHousers can read James Forsyth’s magazine review of the debate here.

A salesman for the cuts

One of the biggest problems facing the coaltion has been presentational: how to sell the cuts? In the absence of a coherent, vigourous message, the Balls school of economic thought has been allowed to grease onto the scene – to the extent that some polls have three-quarters of respondents rejecting the government's deficit reduction plan. But now, at last, signs that the coalition is getting into gear. It's a process which began last week, when Matthew Hancock – a new Tory MP and former adviser to George Osborne – highlighted falling interest rates in Parliament (column 606, here); a point he has been pushing around Westminster ever since. And today Hancock expands on it in an article for the Times (£).

The trouble with Cable’s posturing

What are we to make of the fact that No.10 gave the thumbs-up to Vince Cable’s bizarre anti-capitalist rhetoric today? “Capitalism takes no prisoners and it kills competition where it can,” he fumed – and you can argue that, technically, he is paraphrasing Adam Smith. But he has been in politics long enough to know what signal his speech sent out (and the reaction it would trigger). Mood music counts for a lot in politics, and in business. And the mood music from this government sounds like a bunch of politicians happy to tax the bejesus out of the high-paid - regarding them as ATM machines to be raided, rather than wealth creators to be welcomed. It's time to ask what harm all this posturing is doing.

All so predictable from Cable

If Vince Cable has achieved anything, it's to enliven a Lib Dem conference that had settled into cosy anonymity after Clegg's speech on Monday. He has now delivered the address that David blogged about earlier – and all of the firebrand passages trailed in this morning's papers were present and correct. "Capitalism," Cable warned, "kills competition where it can." And he followed that lead to kick the bankers where he could. In between passages extolling the virtues of "pro business, pro market" policy, he set about the "spiv and gamblers" who had triggered the financial crisis. To be honest, though, I find it hard to get too worked up about this. Sure, the bash-a-banker rhetoric is equal parts lazy and unhelpful.

Building more for less

There’s no way round this: housing in this country is in a pretty awful state. Waiting lists for the shrinking number of “affordable” or social homes are rising, while fewer people can afford to buy their own home. That would be the case even if the banks were able to lend – which they can’t because of the credit crunch.   Fewer than 100,000 new homes are currently being built per year, when 200,000 - 300,000 are needed.  The number of new mortgages being arranged is at its lowest level since 1975, while housing waiting lists have risen from 1 million in 2000 to 1.75 million today. The number of social homes has fallen by 250,000 in the last eight years.

Cable: interim immigration cap is “very damaging to the UK economy”

After stumbling in his crusade for a graduate contribution, Vince Cable seemed to go a bit quiet. But this morning he's roared back into the newspapers with another attack on coalition policy. The target of his anger is, once again, the immigration cap – but he's being far less equivocal about it this time around. The way in which the cap is being implemented this year, he tells the FT, is "very damaging to the UK economy." To force the point home, he says he has a  "file full" of companies who are suffering because of it. And, for good measure, the word "damaging" gets deployed once or twice more.

Barber, Blanchflower and the fake debate on double dip

Watch or read much of the economics coverage in Britain and you sometimes get the sense that we're entering the final round of a peculiar game. Let's call it 'Russian Roulette for Economists'. The rules are simple: teams of academics and economically-literate politicos line up on either side of an issue and hurl abuse at one another. The winner will be declared when something significant changes in the macro-economic position of the UK. The game was played when Britain entered the ERM (those who said it would be a disaster won). The current double dip debate is another example. This time, the principal players on one side are the former Bank of England policymaker Professor David Blanchflower and the TUC general secretary Brendan Barber. On the other, is George Osborne.

Finessing the coalition’s EU referendum lock

The Coalition Government’s proposal for a 'referendum lock' on future transfers of powers to the EU has already been branded “worthless” by some Tory backbenchers . It’s easy to share their frustration at the Coalition’s lack of interest in EU reform so far. After all, the Government has chosen to opt in to the European Investigation Order; signed up for new EU financial supervisors; and chosen not to challenge the UK’s participation in the eurozone bailout (making British taxpayers potentially liable for up to £8 billion in loans to eurozone governments). However, the referendum lock is still significant. New crises, situations and politicians’ egos will always drive the need for another treaty and further integration.

A worrying – but not disastrous – poll for the government

This morning's Times/Populus poll (£) will have supporters of the coalition grimacing into their cornflakes. The headline finding is bad enough, if rather familiar, with Labour closing the gap between themselves and the Tories to only two points. But what follows is worse. According to the poll, around three-quarters of voters reject the government's deficit reduction strategy – preferring, instead, what are loosely the approaches advocated by Labour and the unions. And, what's more, economic pessmism is arrowing upwards. The number of respondents who think "the country as a whole will fare badly," has risen by 13 percentage points since June. The number who think "me and my family will do badly" has gone up by 6 points.

A banking split

Blame Bob Diamond. Until the "unacceptable face of banking" (© the utterly acceptable face of politics, Peter Mandelson) was appointed chief executive of Barclays, the issue of banking reform was trundling along noiselessly in the background. But now it has spilled, violently, back out into the open. Critics of Diamond say that his very presence makes the case for splitting the retail and investmet divisions of banks – you can't, they say, have someone who made their money via "casino banking" presiding over a high street banking chain. But the banks are warning that any such split would force them, and their tax dollars, abroad.   The government's official position is stasis.

Gillard’s fractious premiership

‘The definition of an Independent Member of Parliament, viz., one that could not be depended upon.’ - Former British prime minister, the Earl of Derby to Queen Victoria. In the August 21 federal election down under, the Labor government of Prime Minister Julia Gillard copped a stunning rebuke from the Australian people. Consider this: Tony Abbott’s centre-right Liberal-National Coalition won nearly half a million more votes than the Australian Labor Party. It secured more seats than the ALP (73 to 72 in the 150-seat House of Representatives). And the Labor administration became the first first-term government since 1931 to lose a parliamentary majority. So how does Labor claim a mandate to govern?

Stephen Green’s double-dip warnings

The Big Tent just got a little bit bigger with the appointment of Stephen Green as trade minister. As most of the papers point out, landing the HSBC boss is something of a coup for the coalition. David Cameron was struggling to fill the role, but he's ended up with someone who is widely credited with steering his bank through the worst of the financial storm. Even HSBC's purchase of a dodgy sub-prime company in 2003 has done little to tarnish Green's reputation. Now that he's in government, though, it's worth pointing out that he is yet another minister who has warned of a double-dip recession. Here's how the FT wrote up a speech of his in July: "'We are three years into a crisis that is far from over,' he said.

What you need to know ahead of the Spending Review: the Canadian experience

This is the latest of our posts with Reform looking ahead to the Spending Review. The first six posts were on health, education, the coalition’s first hundred days, welfare, the Civil Service, and the New Zealand experience. Canada In a forward to Reform’s alternative 2010 Budget, Rt Hon Paul Martin, Canadian Finance Minister from 1993 to 2002 and Prime Minister from 2003 to 2006, noted that when a new Liberal government was elected in Canada at the end of November 1993 the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios were, with the sole exception of Italy, by far the worst of the G7. In 1998, just 4 years later, Canada’s deficit was no more, the debt ratio was dropping like a stone and the financial record was second to none.

Balls’ pitch for the shadow chancellorship

If there's one observation to make about Ed Balls's speech this morning it's that it's punchy stuff. His main point is that the coalition are "growth deniers" – not only do their "austerity and cuts" risk a slide back into recession, but they're also unnecessary. He explains: Attlee didn't make his "first priority ... to reduce the debts built up during second world war," and he left us with the welfare state – so why should we cut spending now? Et cetera, et cetera. These are, more or less, all arguments that we've heard from Balls before. But this is definitely the most concentrated form they have ever taken. It's an unrelenting barrage of Brownite economics. As always with Balls, there are exaggerations, inconsistencies and half-truths aplenty.

The double dip predictions

Hark, there seems to be a lot of noise about a double dip recession at the moment – added to, yesterday, by Dr Martin Weale of the Bank of England. So I thought I'd collect some of the more recent, more prominent warnings and predictions for posterity's sake. Do let me know (either in the comments or on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk) if there are any that are worth adding: Sir Alan Budd, 16 August Sir Alan was asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme whether he believed Britain would avoid slipping back into negative growth. "I'm not confident of it," he said. "Our fan charts show that it is a possibility, just as much stronger growth is a possibility. It's not the most likely outcome.